The Rediff Special / J N Dixit

It would be unrealistic to expect US involvement with Pakistan to decline qualitatively

That there is some fundamental rethinking on the importance of India on the United States in US think-tanks and economic circles was reflected in the recommendation of the US Council on Foreign Relations that the United States should seriously examine forging a contentful strategic equation with India, a report which agitated the then Pakistani ambassador to Washington, Maleeha Lodhi.

The comparatively more critical uncertainties in Pakistan may generate concerns in Pakistan about Indo-US relations, but it would be unrealistic to expect US strategic interests in and involvement with Pakistan to decline qualitatively.

Two important visits from India to the US are scheduled during the first half of 1997. A high-powered delegation led by our Cabinet secretary is expected to visit the United States to augment US economic involvement in the core sectors of the Indian economy. The Indian commissioners for non-resident Indians is also scheduled to visit the US during this period.

Unless there are unexpected political developments and economic upheavals in India, one could conclude that Indo-US relations will continue on an even keel without any spectacular trends of growth or decline.

There are, however, critical issues which will continue to generate distances between India and the United States. The first among these are non-proliferation, arms control and denial of certain categories of technology. Clinton has already announced that he will send a message to the committee on disarmament in Geneva to proceed expenditiously with the finalisation of the Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty. This is in conformity with the declared US objective of making the nuclear weapon threshold states cap, roll back, and eliminate their nuclear capacities.

Negotiations and finalisation of the FMCT would be purposively encouraged by the United States in the coming year. India's predicament and its response will have to be more or less similar to the one which India adopted in relation to the CTBT, because the CTBT in conjunction with the FMCT will impose unacceptable limitations on India's security options and technological potentialities.

Interacting with the United States to avoid this second confrontation on a sensitive issue while firmly safeguarding Indian interests would be an important challenge faced by India's policies towards the US. India would also have to cope with regimes for technology denial, imposing limitations on an escalating scale against developing countries, a process which is not just encouraged but led by the United States.

Convincing the United States that India's realising its own technological potential with appropriate, external inputs poses no strategic threat to the United States, would be another important objective of our US policy.

Assistant Secretary of State Robin Raphel was in Islamabad and Dhaka in the last week of January. Nicholas Burns, the state department spokesman, described Raphel's visit as a reflection of the great importance that the United States attaches to South Asia.

Raphel presided over a meeting of US ambassadors in South Asia in Dhaka to review the current state of the US's relations with countries in this region and perhaps to make recommendations on the future directions of US policies towards this region during Clinton's second term.

As Raphel is moving out of her present post, how far Madeleine Albright and Inderfurth would accept the recommendations emanating from the Dhaka meeting is a moot point. While ruling out US intentions of mediating between India and Pakistan on the Kashmir issue, Raphel continued to insist that the United States considers Kashmir 'a disputed area' and that 'India and Pakistan need to negotiate to resolve this issue.'

Obviously, the US establishment is averse to accept the credibility of the political processes which have been successfully set in motion by India in our state of Jammu and Kashmir. The US approach to this problem has more to do with US interests in Pakistan than the emerging realities or the merits of the case.

Examining prospects of Indo-US relations in a larger context, one has to take note of secretary Albright's views on China and Pakistan. Speaking about Sino-Pak co-operation on the supply and manufacture of M-11 ballistic missiles, Albright said : 'The Administration's conclusion is that the known transfers (to Pakistan) are not of a destabilising number and type.' She went on to say that the US is more concerned about China's co-operation with Iran in this sphere.

While co-operation with Pakistan is not of a destabilising nature, according to Albright, Sino-Iranian co-operation would be actively monitored. Albright also elaborated that the United States desires to take further steps beyond the Brown amendment (the step which restored military supplies to Pakistan) to enhance Pakistan-American ties.

In her assessment, Sino-Pakistan co-operation has not crossed the threshold of sanctionable activity. She articulated the basic orientation of US policies towards Pakistan by saying 'We plan to continue working to build a broad and co-operative relationship with Pakistan that will serve our mutual interests.' Albright emphasised that the focus of US attention in Asia would be on China.

While acknowledging that there are differences of opinion and concern about certain aspects of Chinese policy, she felt the US 'should not over-react' on such issues. The United States 'cannot hold its relations with China hostage to one issue or the other,' she said.

The positive measure of constructive engagement between China and the US is the fact that Chinese Foreign Minister Qian Qichen would be among the first superpower figures to visit Washington after Clinton's inauguration.

US interests in the Asian region now have three objectives: A strategic equilibrium with China, nurturing and expanding economic relations with all the Asian countries and the consolidation of relations with countries which have been traditionally responsive to US interests in the region, stretching from Japan to ASEAN, to Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, up to Turkey.

India's size, resources and strategic location ensures that we cannot be ignored by the US. But whether we will be a significant factor in their scheme of things is doubtful, due to our own limitations and, more important, our security interests.

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