Commentary/Mani Shankar Aiyar

The middle class is determined to marginalise the Congress in the next polls

That the chattering classes hold the Congress and its president Sitaram Kesri wholly responsible for the present crisis is indisputable. Nor can it be disputed that it is the articulate middle class which sets the tone for victory or defeat at any hustings. This is the class which believes it is the Congress' duty to ensure stability by putting national interest over that of the party's.

The withdrawal of support to H D Deve Gowda, just as his government began demonstrating its capacity to govern, has, in the eyes of this determining class, confirmed all it has held against the Congress. This class is determined to marginalise the party in the next polls.

If they succeed, a new era will indeed be inaugurated in Indian politics. If they do not, the real questions arising from the present crisis will remain unanswered. And when these real questions are raised -- and answered -- it will be seen by both the opinion-making middle class and the electorate that the Congress, far from being marginalised as the polity evolves into the second half-century of Independence, will continue to be the defining parameter of where we go from here.

We have before us three possible scenarios. The first is governance by the Sangh Parivar. The second is governance by a coalition of regional parties. The third is rule by the Congress -- probably not entirely on its own, but at the head of a coalition.

The middle class is tempted by the first, but is still wary of what it implies. An increase in the strength of Bharatiya Janata Party's and its allies is on the cards; but an exponential leap into governance by them is a somewhat distant prospect.

Governance by a congeries of regional satraps is what the chattering classes prefer. But there just are not enough votes that the regionals can gather to escape from the trap of governing not at their own pleasure, but at that of one or more of the national parties.

There are three nationals -- the BJP, the Communists and the Congress. For reasons of expediency and realpolitik, the nationals may, at any given time, support a coalition of regionals. But all three have demonstrated that while their outside support might lead to a government formation, such support is inherently incapable of guaranteeing governance.

In 1977-79, even though the Sangh Parivar actually merged its identity with the regionals, the merger took but months to come unstuck. There has not been another attempt to forge coalitions through merger since then. Nor will there ever be.

Then came the Vishwanath Pratap Singh government in 1989-90. It was a major new experiment in Indian politics -- the propping up of a regional coalition by outside support from two nationals (the Communists and the BJP) to keep out the third national (the Indian National Congress). The experiment lasted less than a year. The regionals, just as the national parties, fell out with each other.

This was followed by another group of regionals -- the Chandra Shekhar government -- supported by the BJP from outside. It took but six weeks for that arrangement to reveal its non-viability. A few more weeks and the arrangement came to an unregretted end.

Now we have just witnessed the experiment of two nationals -- the Congress and the Communist Party of India-Marxist -- surreptitiously joining hands to keep the third national out by propping up our fourth government. Of regionals. That too has ended.

Mani Shankar Aiyar, continued