Commentary/Mani Shankar Aiyar

The only coalition which will survive is one led by a national party

What the middle class will have to realise -- or be tutored to realise -- is this country cannot be governed by a coalition of regional parties, however 'national' their outlook is.

Stable coalitions can only exist if at least one of the national parties come into government. And in such a government, that national party will obviously be the coalition leader.

Four times over in the last 20 years -- 1977 to 1997 -- the tail has wagged the dog. The four governments, taken together, have remained in office for less than a fourth of the 20 years. In other words, for three-fourths of the 20 years, it has been national party rule.

It is only a national party rule that has provided stable governance. Ergo, the arithmetic of democracy requires the logic of numbers to be reflected in the composition of government. Any attempt at violating this arithmetic will be doomed.

The arithmetic of our democracy is such that however regionalised elections to the national Parliament get, we are a long way from the combined vote of the regionals overtaking the share of the nationals. If the regionals are to reach 270 seats in Lok Sabha, all three nationals will have to be worsted simultaneously.

Which simply is not going to happen -- any one national party, yes; any two, possibly; but all three together? No way.

Likewise, no national party in any proximate future is likely to get on its own the strength needed to govern without a coalition of regionals. So, whether we like it or not (and I certainly don't), the Era of Coalitions is upon us.

The articulate class has, however, misunderstood what is meant by the Era of Coalitions. Because we have only had coalitions of regionals supported from the outside by one or more nationals, the coalition which the middle class immediately identifies is that model. But a government that does not command a majority, and relies on outside support, will not survive. The only one which will survive is a coalition led by one of the nationals. And not till such a consummation is achieved will our polity revert to stable governance. It is this message that will have to be borne in to the electorate.

Via, of course, the articulate classes.

Mani Shankar Aiyar, continued