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December 15, 2002 |
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The Rediff Election Special/
Dhiraj Shetty
The post-Godhra communal violence and the state government's conduct have turned the electoral battle in Gujarat into one between secular India and its fundamentalist counterpart. Both are leaving no stone unturned to prove that they represent the real India. Since 1995, the two BJP governments under Keshubhai Patel had nothing outstanding to show by way of achievement. In fact, the handling of the relief operations after a typhoon wrecked Kandla port and an earthquake devastated the Kutch region came in for heavy criticism. The attack on a train at Godhra and the communal violence that followed completely changed the party's fortunes. Until then, the Congress had hoped to return to power on the basis of the BJP's non-performance. Post-Godhra, the party resigned itself to another term in the opposition, until former swayamsevak Shankersinh Vaghela was appointed to lead its election campaign. Then, the BJP had a fight on its hands. A look at some of the keenly watched constituencies. Godhra: This is one of the few seats where the outgoing candidate, Rajendra Patel (Congress), was so popular that he withstood a BJP wave and won on a Janata Dal ticket in 1998. This time, however, he faces a tough fight. The burning of the S6 coach of the Sabarmati Express and the communal riots that followed have completely altered the town's social fabric. Keen to drive home its advantage, the BJP has fielded former Bajrang Dal leader Haresh Bhatt, who hails from Ahmedabad. But point this out and all hell breaks loose. "If I am an outsider, then who is Sonia Gandhi?" Bhatt asks. The main candidates»
The safest seat available after Ellis Bridge, where the BJP candidate had won with the highest margin, was Maninagar in Ahmedabad. It was close to the scene of action during the riots and the polarization along communal lines has not waned.
The main candidates» Ellis Bridge: Senior BJP leader Haren Pandya has increased his margin with each victory from this seat since 1990. In 1998, his winning margin was the largest in all Gujarat. The BJP is likely to retain this seat. What is to be seen is how his constituents view his unceremonious ouster from the poll scene. The main candidates»
First of all, Chief Minister Modi abandoned this constituency, which elected him only six months back, fearing the wrath of the Patels, thus dealing a psychological blow to the BJP's prospects. Vajubhai Vala is trying his best to control the damage, but that's not his only problem. His boast of having brought the Narmada waters to Rajkot is taken with a pinch of salt (anything more would be dangerous in the dry Gujarat climate). The icing on the cake comes in the form of Chiman Shukla. He had left the BJP along with Shankersinh Vaghela in 1997. While Vaghela is now heading the Congress campaign, Shukla is back in the BJP fold managing Vala's campaign against his own daughter Kashmira Nathwani, who is the Congress candidate. The main candidates» Bhuj: A devastating earthquake in January 2001 has permanently altered the topography of Kutch district. But the government's relief efforts simply did not match the magnitude of the quake. In fact, people from the lower strata of society have been muttering under their breath that Keshubhai's government was of the rich, by the rich, for the rich. This is perhaps their first opportunity to voice their displeasure; and for the rest to express their gratitude. The main candidates» Khedbrahma: Leader of the Opposition Amarsinh Chaudhary was almost in oblivion till the Congress announced that he would be its chief ministerial candidate, though with the rider that Vaghela would lead the election campaign. Naturally, voters are confused.
But the region was greatly affected and influenced by the post-Godhra communal riots, to the BJP's advantage. Hence, Chaudhary is campaigning hard just to retain his seat, which does not speak much for a chief ministerial aspirant. The main candidates»
This time would have been no different had Keshubhai not decided against contesting in view of his differences with his successor as chief minister, Narendra Modi. An unhappy Keshubhai even refused the offer of a ticket for his son. Instead, Kanubhai Bhalana will try to retain the seat for the BJP. He is up against Keshubhai Ambaliya (Congress) and an independent, Bipin Ramani. The Congress is keen to capitalize on the resentment among the Patels against Modi for replacing Keshubhai, but fears Ramani might steal its thunder. The main candidates»
Minister for Prohibition Dilip Thakor has won this seat thrice with the support of the backward Thakor community, like his father before him. But Vaghela's influence among the backwards and Thakor's consistent neglect' of the seat may cost the BJP dear, say Congressmen. The main candidates» Vyara: Amarsinh Chaudhary's former constituency in tribal-dominated south Gujarat, which he abandoned when the going got tough. He hopes fellow tribals will be more generous to his son Tushar. His biggest challenge will be from Congress rebel and member of the outgoing assembly Pratap Gavit. With its vote share increasing with every election since 1990, the BJP could not have asked for more. The main candidates» Patan: 'Outsider' is the word haunting caretaker Education Minister Anandiben Patel ever since she shifted to Patan constituency from Mandal in Ahmedabad. One of the towns largely unaffected by the post-Godhra riots, the BJP is having a tough time finding takers for its Hindutva line. Another worry is that it has been holding on to this seat since 1990 and has to overcome the anti-incumbency factor, which Congress candidate Kantilal Nanalal Patel wants to capitalize on. Kantilal is not an unknown entity, having been on the losing side since 1990. The presence of the two Patels in the fray is explained by the fact that the community constitutes 47% of the electorate. While the BJP is promising a minister for Patan, Kantilal's trump card is the goodwill state Congress chief Shankersinh Vaghela enjoys among the old-timers of the town, where he spent a good part of his youth. The main candidates»
Kutiyana: This seat in Porbandar district will witness the battle of the dons. The Congress was able to field a candidate for the first time in 12 years with the blessings of Santokben Jadeja, perceived as a godmother in these parts.
With the division of votes, it is unlikely that the BJP's Karsanbhai Dhulabhai would have any problem retaining the seat. Besides, the BJP is credited with having ended the goondagardi (anti-social activities) in the district by clamping down on Santokben and Bhurabhai. The main candidates»
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