"Concerns about slowing growth are likely to weigh on policy-making. We see a risk that GDP growth will approach six per cent in H2-FY12, with recovery delayed until H2-FY13. Monetary policy easing is likely to bring a cyclical upturn in investment, but policy bottlenecks will need to be removed to sustain the rebound," said Samiran Chakraborty, regional head of research, India, Standard Chartered Bank.
Standard Chartered expects the RBI to reduce CRR by 50 bps and undertake an additional Rs 35,000-40,000 crore (Rs 350-400 billion) of open market operations to address the liquidity shortfall in the near term.
It expects 150 bps of repo rate cuts in FY13. One bp (basis point) is one-hundredth of a percentage point.
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