Commentary/Rajiv Shukla

The BJP is on the comeback trail

The Bharatiya Janata Party has hit the comeback trail in right earnest. The landslide victory of the Akali Dal-BJP combine in Punjab; the BJP's impressive showing in the by-elections of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and Orissa; and the outcome of the civic polls in Delhi and Maharashtra are all pointers to a resurgent saffron brigade.

The entire northern belt today resembles a BJP citadel. In Delhi, the Congress had expected the anti-incumbency syndrome to work to its advantage. But all Congress calculations were upset as the BJP won 79 out of 133 seats in the Municipal Corporation of Delhi. Vote-patterns indicate that if a general election were to be called now, the BJP would bag six out of seven seats in Delhi.

The BJP is comfortably ensconced in Delhi, Haryana, Punjab and Rajasthan. The Rajasthan by-polls, in which the party has bagged the Nagroa seat for the first time, have shown that the BJP is making inroads into the vital jat votebank. Under the leadership of Bhairon Singh Shekhawat, the BJP seems to have tided over its troubles. In the Uttar Pradesh assembly, the BJP is the single largest party and the recent by-elections saw it add two more seats to its tally.

In Madhya Pradesh, the Congress suffered a body-blow when it lost it stronghold, Chhindwara. With infighting plaguing the Digvijay Singh government, the Congress is fast losing ground to the BJP. In Gujarat, the Congress has gained nothing by supporting the Shankarsinh Vaghela government, while the BJP is steadily regaining lost ground. The next election will see a direct fight between the BJP and Vaghela's MahaGujarat Janata Party.

In Bihar, the BJP-Samta Party alliance has emerged the only viable alternation to the Janata Dal regime. The Congress is compelled to support Laloo Prasad Yadav and his scam-tainted governments as part of its central policy to back the United Front government. If only the BJP can enlist the support of either the kurmi community or a section of the dalits, it will be in a position to take full electoral advantage of Laloo Prasad Yadav's fall from grace.

In Orissa, the BJP has made capital of the Opposition Janata Dal's downslide. The ego-clash between veteran Biju Patnaik and Union minister Srikant Jena has hit the Dal hard and it is losing both credibility and support.

While the J B Patnaik-led Congress government is going strong at the moment, by-poll results have shown that the BJP has moved smoothly into second place, with the Janata Dal finishing a poor third in most cases. Having established itself as the leading Opposition party in Orissa, the BJP is now in a position to benefit from the anti-establishment votes in this eastern state.

Down south, the BJP has spread its tentacles in some 16 parliamentary constituencies of Karnataka. With the Janata Dal doing little of note, the BJP is likely to be the principal beneficiary in the PM's home state as well.

The by-polls and municipal elections have come as a timely boost to the BJP and could well pave the path for the saffron brigade's renewed bid for power at the Centre.

Rajiv Shukla is a senior editor at The Sunday Observer and host of the popular talk show, Ru-ba-ru.

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