Commentary/Saisuresh Sivaswamy

Vote-catcher on the prowl

It does not have the hype of his earlier peregrinations across the country atop a modified Toyota, or their directness of message, but that shouldn't draw from the significance of L K Advani's Swarna Jayanti Rath Yatra, which set off from Bombay last week.

The explanation on record for the wanderlust of the Bharatiya Janata Party vote-catcher is the commemoration of the country's 50th year of Independence; it certainly could be party true, but it is also intended to test the waters for what the BJP knows will be an early election, probably early next year. January and thereabouts, after all, seem to be traditionally the favourite time to hold elections.

A shrewd politician like Advani does not take off on a protracted tour, that too when most of the country he will be traversing is subject to a cruel summer, merely on a whim, or without deeper political motivation. It does sound nice to the traditional BJP voter that the party is so nationalistic that Advani, after previously urging crowds to pull down a dilapidated mosque, is going around whipping up patriotism, especially since the government itself has shown little initiative so far. But accolades are not what Advani and the BJP are after.

More importantly, they want to make sure that the political languor that has set in after Inder Kumar Gujral assumed office does not deplete the BJP's vote bank, for the new BJP voter is a strange commodity; they do not possess the traditional guard's commitment to vote, and are more likely to have turned to the BJP after being disillusioned with the other political parties. Change is what he is looking for, but change does not come with a sense of languor, the present political atmosphere could in fact be stultifying for it. Hence the activity on the BJP's part.

The BJP sees the need to activate its vote bank now that it senses the possibility of another round of elections. Of course, one does not have to be a political pundit to see the fragility of the present arrangement masquerading as a stable administration in New Delhi. If previously the Congress president rocked the government merely because he did not like Deve Gowda's face, it could be something else this time around, and the BJP is a party that believes in keeping its powder dry.

Or very probably, the BJP's actions is meant to counter the Sonia Gandhi move into politics, which it knows will enthuse the Congress rank and file even if it stymies the ambitious and established leadership of the party. A rejuvenated Congress under Sonia Gandhi, the BJP knows, will waste no time in withdrawing support to the government and pressing for early elections. So convinced is the party about the encashability of the Gandhi mystique at the hustings. Once this happens, the resurgent Congress will automatically deal with constituents of the United Front, and it will be virtually a straight fight between the BJP and the Congress.

Of course, most of this may not come to pass, but electoral politics is often like fighting a war. You have to presume your opponent's moves, and often act upon this presumptions. Which is exactly what L K Advani is doing, rushing about the country on his Swarna Jayanti Rath Yatra.

Even if it so turns out that Sonia Gandhi does not become an active member of the Congress party, it is evident that the longer the Congress continues to support the United Front at the Centre, the lesser its own chances of regaining its primacy on the political landscape of the country. It may all sound sugar and spice when Sitaram Kesri talks of providing unconditional support to the Gujral government, but being verterans in the field of politics, both know these are merely words meant for public consumption.

It is essentially a tug-of-war between the two sides, both looking for an honourable way out; the crudeness of Kesri's March 30 manoeuvre cannot be repeated if he is keen on winning back the public's confidence in his party.

What must be causing worry for the BJP is that even through the crisis-filled days of March 30 to April 11, there was no accretion in its own rank of supporters in either the state legislatures or Parliament. Thus, it is faced with the unpleasant prospect of not being able to elect its own man as President, even though it is the single largest party in the Lok Sabha. This helplessness to have its way also coincided with a decline in Advani's own fortunes after he was implicated in the hawala scam, but with the courts exonerating him he is keen on proving his mass appeal in a manner he knows best.

Personally, I believe that the Congress cannot afford to ride piggyback on the United Front, never mind if it proved to the country through shock treatment that it was the dog that was wagging the tail and not vice versa. In that sense, the next round of general elections will take place well before its due date.

The prospect of them happening early next year, will depend to a large extent on what Sonia Gandhi decides to do. If she does take the plunge, there is no way the Congress will continue to support the Gujral government. Even if she does not, Kesri will have to overlook his fondness for the occupant of 7, Racecourse Road and part ways. But to do so, he needs a valid issue, a breaking point in the relations between the two sides. Without that, his action will be one of crudity, and there is no way the public will endorse that with their vote.

Will Gujral give Kesri the issue he is looking for? It seems unlikely, but like any true general Advani is leaving nothing to chance.

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