Commentary/Saisuresh Swaswamy

UF Budget dares the Congress to withdraw support

When Manmohan Singh announced that P Chidambaram's second Budget as finance minister followed in the general direction set by the previous government, he perhaps did not realise how true he was. For apart from conforming to the path laid down by Dr Singh, Chidambaram, like his predecessor, has also succeeded in bringing back the economy as the main item on the national agenda, relegating politics to the background.

In the process, Chidambaram has also flung the gauntlet at Congress president Sitaram Kesri, who ever since he succeeded Rao to a post which he considered equivalent to shadow prime minister, has been so busy rattling all the sabres that he has had little true to attend to party work.

In the process, Chidambaram has also performed a true sleight of hand and has made the Budget appear all things to all people, depending on the prism one is gazing through. Is the Budget growth-oriented? Yes, Is the Budget inflationary? Yes. Is the Budget markets-oriented? Yes. Is it populist? Yes. Is the Left happy with it? Yes. Is the right happy with it? Again, yes.

This is the stuff political legends are made of and no wonder Kesri despite his Himalayan experience, is fazed to the core, for in politics, timing is of essence, he knows, and Chidambaram, with his miracle Budget, has queered Kesri's patch.

The Congress president realises too well that the longer he allows the United Front government to serve in office the further recede his own party's chances of coming back to power. And there is no way -- just no way -- he is going to allow the UF to continue beyond this year. He must have backed all his hopes on the Budget making a radical departure for the path shown by Manmohan Singh, but with the latter himself lauding the Budget he is groping around for another issue.

And the UF is not providing one in hurry. Privileged treatment for Priyanka? She gets it. No dirty hints on Bofors? Yes. With the ruling coalition in such an accommodating mood, perhaps all Kesri needs to do is to ask for the prime ministership for Deve Gowda to oblige!

But seriously, the mood among Congressmen in the far outbacks of what used to be their party's realm cannot be anything but downcast. The party's own lack of bite, combined with the UF's slow-growing acceptance among the masses, combined with the fact that at least one opinion poll of repute tips the Bharatiya Janata Party as a serious contender for power, all this can only send shivers down the cadre's spine. Is the party ready for another general election at a time when state after state, not to mention municipalities, are stepping out of the Congress's grasp?

However, for the ordinary Congress worker, for whom his party's battle cry of yore karange ya marange is something only the history books have taught him, this is the time when the Congress must do or die. There is no way it can hobble along, like it has been doing these past few years, into the next century. And how ironic that the man of the moment is the venerable Kesri! For he is faced with some of the toughest tasks ever executed by a Congress president.

Task number one will have to be the bringing back of the minorities to the party's votebank. This is something they have steadfastly refused to do since December 6, 1992 and the extent of their anger can be gauged from the recent civic elections in Bombay when they chose to vote for the Shiv Sena rather than the Congress. But their anger is more against one individual whom they hold responsible for the Babri Masjid's demolition, rather than the party.

And an indication of the isolation of former prime minister P V Narasimha Rao within the party was given recently when his trusted aide S B Chavan turned on him, blaming Rao squarely for the demolition, Kesri needs to pursue this line to send the message that the party will not hesitate to act against anybody for acts inimical to its interests.

Task number two will have to be the strengthening of the party structure by making it truly democratic, and to give it a regional thrust. There is nothing to be gained and everything to be lost by foisting or buttressing people without any hold over the grassroots in positions of power, no matter how critical they are to the high command. It does not pay in elections -- and Bombay's response only strengthens this theory. The impending organisational elections in the party may be a good starting point.

It may actually be a good time to start work on bringing back some charisma to the party, as well. History shows that barring 1971, 1984 and 1991, the Congress has always relied on charisma rather than issues to win its electoral mandate. Charisma plus the Opposition's perceived ineptitude. Both these factors are no more valid, and according to present indications the next election too may well be shorn of a compelling issue.

So unless Kesri works on bringing back charisma to the party, the party may well be over for him. And there is only one place the Congress party can turn to for some charisma: 10, Janpath. Kesri's task here will have to be the return of the Gandhi family at the party's, not the government's, helm.

It can be no one's case that Sonia Gandhi is still wallowing in the tragedy surrounding her husband's assassination or that she leads the life of a recluse. With all due respect, she conveys the impression of one who has internalised the trauma and it is obvious that she takes an active interest in the party's affairs.

She will have to be convinced by Kesri and his clique that she will have to come out in the open and lead the party's electoral campaign, without fighting the elections herself. The latter would only be leading teeth to the Opposition's clamour over a 'foreigner' taking over the country. To nullify such a campaign, she could merely head the party, and allow the Congress Parliamentary Party to chose a leader from among themselves. This will also mute the criticism, if any, of the family's involvement in the Bofors payoffs.

And separating the party from the administration need not always result in the elected representatives breaking off on an ambitious tangent; if the Shiv Sena could do it in Maharashtra -- where the chief minister and his team know that it was Thackeray's charisma that bought them votes in the first place -- the Congress with the Gandhi tag can surely replicate it at the Centre.

And what matters here is time. The Congress will have to act this year and go for broke. In another couple of months the euphoria over the Budget will have died down, and muted criticism of its inflationary, pro-rich nature will have started. The Congress, alter having undergone a perestroika, will have to withdraw support to the UF government and be prepared to go to the polls, hopefully with a charismatic person leading it, by the end of this year.

For any delay would take the party into the next year and another revolutionary Budget from Chidambaram who is out to spoil Kesri's party.

Saisuresh Sivaswamy, former executive editor, Express Newsline, now works with a Bombay-based television company.

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