Commentary/ T V R Shenoy

If the gods are gracious, Gujral won't last weeks before his rickety coalition shatters

Once upon a time there was a king who believed he possessed the divine right to rule. But one day ''Frenchmen in uniform joined Frenchmen in rags, and rebellion turned into revolution.'' That day was July 14, 1789, a date that resounds in history.

Today, another ramshackle regime is on its last legs. Appropriately, the turning point came on July 14, and again 'rebellion turned to revolution' as hitherto disciplined soldiers broke ranks.

M Karunanidhi and the Dravida Munnetra Kazagham have generally minded their own business -- in stark contrast to the rest of the United Front. Which is why it came as such a surprise when the Tamil Nadu chief minister suddenly turned his guns on the UF 's bastille.

Karunanidhi threatened to pull the DMK out of the Gujral ministry as a gesture of protest. He named no names, but everybody knew he was talking about the Communists when he spoke of some parties pursuing a 'Personal Minimum Programme' and of 'carrying on a vendetta' (against the Bihar chief minister).

Why did he break his silence just then? I believe everyone was waiting for the Presidential elections to be over. The unnatural restraint imposed upon the UF is now removed. Karunanidhi was simply firing the first shot in what promises to be a prolonged war.

It is a war in which neutrality won't be an option. That is bad news for the prime minister who prides himself -- God knows why! -- on his diplomatic skills. This war entails making hard choices in four broad areas. Let us examine each of these briefly.

The immediate problem is Laloo Prasad Yadav's insistence that he continues to be a UF member. The Left Front and whatever is left of the Janata Dal bitterly disagree. Some of the others -- G K Moopanar and now Karunanidhi -- say they see no reason why Yadav's Rashtriya Janata Dal shouldn't stick around.

Why are the south Indian leaders so concerned? Is it because they have a sneaking suspicion that the Janata Dal and the Communists aren't worth much in the north without Yadav?

But the Left Front, the most vocal of the anti-Laloo Prasad Yadav forces, has its own compulsions. Losing in Bihar doesn't particularly concern the comrades. But they don't want to be seen as soft on corruption in their strongholds of West Bengal and Kerala. And that is precisely how the highly literate voters of those states will interpret Yadav's continuance in the UF.

Thus far, Gujral has swung both ways. He continues to keep three RJD ministers in his ministry. But he also talks about 'morality' in public life. Now the prime minister must decide where he stands -- with Laloo Yadav or against him.

The second issue is corruption in general. As Harkishen Singh Surjeet says, "We can't face the people if we back off." (The CPI-M general secretary clearly believes a general election isn't far!)

The Communists are convinced that Gujral is continuing with a cover-up on Bofors, a cover-up on the Ashok Jain case, and a cover-up on everything that involves senior Congressmen. They want no part in this. (Notice how carefully Union Home Minister Indrajit Gupta distanced himself from Joginder Singh's removal and the decision to persecute the Enforcement Directorate.)

But seriously investigating the cases mentioned above means annoying the Congress. For all his fine words on 'transparency' and 'norms', this prime minister will do almost anything to preserve his chair. His policy of masterly inactivity could work only up to a point. The time has now come to take a firm stand.

The third bone of discord is the vice-president's election. The Congress wants its own nominee in that office. The Communists certainly don't want to be seen voting for, say, Pranab Mukherjee.

Finally, there are the crucial decisions that any responsible government must take -- the hike in petroleum prices, for instance, or an adequate response to Pakistan's newly-acquired offensive capabilities. (The Haft missile can reach as far as Bombay, and recent American reports suggest that Pakistan is close to achieving full nuclear-power status.)

I am not mentioning these issues last because they are unimportant. Quite the contrary, in fact. But to the myopic UF leaders, their own petty squabbles for power take priority to the welfare of India.

Any of the four issues mentioned above can bring down the Gujral ministry. That happy moment won't come a moment too soon for any thoughtful citizen. But we may not need to wait much longer.

Louis XVI lolled on the throne for 15 years before France was provoked to revolt. If the gods are gracious, Inder Kumar Gujral won't last weeks before his rickety coalition shatters.

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