Commentary/T V R Shenoy

Gujral will weaken either the Congress or the United Front

Parliament House has finally fallen silent after three hectic weeks. Even the echoes of all those speeches have died away. But two questions remain unanswered.

First, how did the President reach the conclusion that a United Front ministry "supported from outside" by the Congress holds any promise whatsoever of stability?

Second, why did the Congress president choose to strike when he did, despite knowing perfectly well that he was throwing the budgetary process into turmoil?

Dr Shankar Dayal Sharma's motives are easier to understand. In the communique explaining the invitation to Gujral, he specifically mentioned that a general election wasn't desirable so soon after the last one. Feel free to agree with the decision, but don't impugn the fact that the President meant well enough.

Sitaram Kesri, however, has assigned no reasons for his bewildering behaviour. From first to last, the Congress president has behaved as thought the nation is his jagir, and the President of the nation a tool to be used or discarded at whim.

Discourtesy is the least of his sins. Far worse is his utter disdain for facts. Let me quote from the now infamous letter-bomb of Easter Sunday:

'The CWC expressed its concern over the deteriorating law and order situation, drift in the economy -- leading to rising prices and unemployment, growing communal menace, and lack of cohesive functioning of the government.... The sensitive defence issues and security requirements of the country have not been properly addressed.'

A comprehensive chargesheet, isn't it! So why was Kesri singing a different tune in under forty-eight hours?

Mulayam Singh Yadav, the defence minister who ignored 'security requirements', was praised as the last word in secularism. Chidambaram, the finance minister who presided over 'rising prices and unemployment', was implored to return to his post. And Kesri supports the government whose home minister is Indrajit Gupta, whose tenure saw a 'deteriorating law and order situation'!

If even half the charges were true, renewing support to such an incompetent bunch is tantamount to high treason. But Kesri, it seems had just been using the President of India as a lever to shake H D Deve Gowda.

After some initial brave talk, the United Front threw in the towel. Upon which Kesri's men scented blood once more.

I hope you watched the debate on the motion moved by Gujral. Santosh Mohan Deb and Venkataswamy openly put the government on notice. "Ignore us," was the message, "and out you go!" Were these promises of stability?

Scarcely, especially with the United Front itself in worse shape than it was even as late as April 11. Because Sitaram Kesri was right about one thing -- the United Front is not a cohesive body.

DMK-bashing came into the open at the Tamil Maanila Congress's first anniversary celebrations in Coimbatore. The Janata Dal contingent from Karnataka will be more intransigent than ever on the Cauvery and Almatti issues, now that they have nothing to lose. Laloo Prasad Yadav openly campaigned to sabotage his fellow Yadavs.

If it is less cohesive, it is also visibly less talented now that the TMC has withdrawn in a huff. (Over 400 Lok Sabha MPs now have no say in the government, no advertisement for our democracy in the Golden Jubilee of Indian independence!)

Why did the TMC leave the government, joining its Communist Party of India-Marxist tormentors in the luxury of power without responsibility? In part, it was intra-Tamil rivalry. In part, it was because the TMC in general and Moopanar in particular are suspected of being too close to the Congress.

Does the United Front deem it a sin to maintain cordial relations with its largest supporter? If yes, so much for stability!

But relations between the Congress and the United Front are bound to deteriorate. It is all very well for Gujral to promise that there won't be any "witch-hunts". Ten months ago, in his first speech, Deve Gowda too laughingly dismissed corruption as something that had been there since "Pandit Nehru's time".

He soon found that even a prime minister's options are limited once a case comes out into the open. If Gujral was serious when he swore to protect the Constitution, he can do nothing but "let the law take its own course". Which inevitably leads to conflict.

Nor can he stop his colleagues from taking potshots at the Congress. The Asom Gana Parishad, the Left Front, the Telugu Desam -- they all have the Congress as their main opponent.

Gujral's tenure will weaken either the Congress or the United Front. His options are limited -- and stability isn't one of them.

The President may have ended uncertainty. He cannot claim that he has ended instability too. Nor will it end as long as there are Sitaram Kesri's around, men willing to entoil Rashtrapati Bhavan in their manoeuvres, men willing to say whatever they like to demean others, men who see India and her citizens as their own ancestral property.

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