Commentary/Janardan Thakur

Many of the UF constituents may support BJP to avoid polls

There is again a smile on Sitaram Kesri's face, but the smile may not last very long.

For the moment he is patting himself on the back for getting H D Deve Gowda out of his way. That had been Kesri's sole plea to Indrajit Gupta on the eve of the confidence motion, as Indrajit Gupta himself revealed. But can the 'old man in a hurry' now grab the chair he has been eyeing so hard?

Even Kesri's partymen agree that he committed a big blunder, and very few doubt that the Congress would be the biggest loser in the gamble. Right now the situation is fluid and almost anything could emerge from the melting pot. But for the moment Kesri has emerged, by common consent, as the villain of the piece.

Kesri has precedents to cite: the Congress had withdrawn support to two governments before him -- once in 1979 when Indira Gandhi brought down Charan Singh, and the second time in 1991 when Rajiv Gandhi toppled Chandra Shekhar. What Kesri forgot was the vital difference between then and now. On both the earlier occasions, the Congress withdrew support to force a mid-term election. What is more, the party was solidly behind Indira Gandhi and Rajiv in their decision. Which is not the case now. Kesri may think he can manipulate his way to the country's top job, but he is in no position to lead his party to the polls.

In fact, no party is prepared to face elections at this point, perhaps not even the Bharatiya Janata Party, despite the fact it may gain the most in a mid-term poll. But the party that is most frightened of an election is certainly the Congress. It knows it would end up with mud on its face.

The fear of going back to the people in less than a year was the primary reason why the outgoing prime minister did not recommended Lok Sabha dissolution. Another reason was the Finance Bill, which is yet to be passed. Deve Gowda was so bitter as he went out that he would hardly have bothered what chaos and instability followed him, but he acquiesced in the all-round concern about averting financial chaos and elections at this juncture.

Sure enough, they would like to cobble another government, sooner than later, if only to escape elections and to keep the BJP from growing bigger. A frantic exercise has been on for several days, with the key government cobblers moving from one crowded parlour to another, almost round the clock. What shape the new creature might take nobody knows.

Much as Kesri has striven to break the UF, he has had almost no success so far. On the eve of the confidence motion, he had finally come down to just one demand -- remove Deve Gowda. But that was perhaps just his way of getting the throne vacated. The real hurdle still remained. The mantra given by the ailing former prime minister Vishwanath Pratap Singh from his bed in Apollo hospital ('just keep the Front intact') seemed to be working still. If the UF stays together, which would be quite a wonder in itself, the Congress may well find that it has no choice but to support another united front government under a different leader.

What the UF has to do in the next few days is not only to keep together but to throw up a new leader acceptable to all. Quite a tall order, considering that there are so many jockeys backing their own horses. The Raja of Manda has been pushing his favourite, Ram Vilas Paswan; the Marxist veterans have been lobbying hard for I K Gujral, and sections of the Congress party have been plugging for their former colleague, G K Moopanar.

And Kesri continues to insist that the new coalition must be led by the Congress -- in other words, he must be the prime minister.

He and his supporters know that at least the Left parties would not accept his leadership. Kesri would not mind if the Left breaks away, except that the UF is not ready for it.

If the UF-Congress deadlock is not resolved soon, the ball would once again return to the President's court. Knowing that Dr Shankar Dayal Sharma likes going by the book, it is not impossible that he might call upon the Bharatiya Janata Party to try and form a government yet again. Which would start a whole new ballgame.

The BJP is in its own agony: Can it succeed whether it failed last time, or will it be another 13-day wonder? The party knows it is gaining with every discomfiture on the other wide of the fence, but it would like some more time before it can make its final assault on the Centre.

The BJP is not really a believer in the theory that coalitions have become a permanent feature of Indian politics. It would like to rule on its own, but that would take some more time. In the meantime, the party has no inhibitions about breaking bread with whoever responds to its call. It would welcome more Kanshi Rams and Bansi Lals.

Can the BJP do it? If it really comes to the point where there is no option but the polls, many of the UF constituents might jump on to the BJP bandwagon.

The next few days could see any number of surprises and somersaults.

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