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The Rediff Interview/Dr William Maley, Australian Defence Force Academy, Canberra

'ISI may still be working with the Taliban'

Dr William Maley, a South Asia and West Asia specialist, has been a keen watcher of developments in Afghanistan. He teaches at the Australian Defence Force Academy, Canberra. In an exclusive interview with Ramesh Menon, Maley says terrorists will now try to be imaginative and it will be a challenge for anti-terrorist strategists to anticipate their next move. Excerpts:

Is the locus of terror now shifting to the West?

Well, you can now expect the unexpected. Terrorist groups are perennially searching for mechanisms that can disturb the serenity of societies they regard as enemies. They will be now creative in identifying the means of creating disturbances given the vulnerabilities and technology that dominate societies at particular points of time.

One threat is manipulation of information technology. Another threat would be an attack on facilities, which could cause collateral damage to communities living around. For example, exclusion zones have been established [around nuclear facilities] for light aircraft in the United States. There is fear that a terrorist group may crash a plane into one of these reactors, which would release radiation into the atmosphere. It may prove devastating as it did in Chernobyl.

Terrorists will try to be creative and imaginative. It is a challenge for law-enforcement authorities and anti-terrorist strategists trying to anticipate what the terrorists are planning.

Is the menace of terror now spreading to the West?

The menace of terror has been in Western countries now for a significant period of time. In the sixties and early seventies, Western countries were significant targets for numerous terrorist groups like the Japanese Red Army Faction.

But there has been a diminution of terrorist attacks in western European countries since the eighties, particularly after the change in character of the Soviet Union, which encouraged some leftwing terrorists. There are not many leftwing terrorist groups inspired by the Red Brigade.

Is terrorism in the West fanning a new kind of paranoia?

I think it is. In the sense that there are actually other threats to the safety of individuals in Western countries that are much more potent. It is much more likely that a citizen of [any] Western country would die in a traffic accident than in a terrorist attack. Yet, we don't hear of a war against motor cars as an appropriate response to what is statistically a very important cause of premature death.

But we hear concerns about terrorism as people fear simply being in the wrong place at the wrong time and becoming victims of a terrorist strike.

Terrorist strikes are often in the context of rhetoric that demonizes entire countries like the United States and creates an impression that individual citizens are legitimate targets. A person who drives in a car may be at risk of a traffic accident, but does not feel he is being targeted. But a person from the United States may feel that Americans are being targeted by certain groups. That creates a different psychological context and that is what is at work over here.

Frankly, I am not putting off any travel because of the fear of a terrorist attack. You could defer your travel and be caught in a car accident.

Do you think ideologies and lifestyles will now change?

Lifestyles will change. There will be change of security measures to prevent things like aircraft hijacking. Delays in boarding aircraft will increase because of the stringent security measures. There will be more careful scrutiny of people travelling between countries. We will probably see enhanced bureaucratic visa mechanisms in Western countries.

Historically, visas have been used by Western countries to exclude the poor and not terrorists. Western countries use visas to block the entry of people who seem likely to overstay for economic reasons. If one wishes to use visa systems to exclude terrorists, it is going to require a very different kind of mechanism for profiling individuals than what exists at the moment, which focuses on income and assets. We now know that those are not very good predictors of involvement in terrorist activity.

Those involved in the Pentagon and World Trade Centre attacks would not have come to the attention of immigration authorities as potential visa overstayers. So, sea changes are going to come in that area. I do not think life as we know it is going to shift all that much, but there will be petty changes everyday.

There will be more prejudices.

Absolutely. There will be more prejudices. There is absolutely no doubt that in Western countries people are by and large not well informed about the complexities of life in the developing world. All sorts of ridiculous things have happened such as attacks on Sikhs in the United States for wearing turbans, which unsophisticated minds have associated with Islamic radicalism.

Those kinds of grid generalizations are inevitable. Even in rich and developed societies, there are people who are ignorant of the modern world. Their ignorance will translate into some degree of prejudice and stereotyping. We need to work against that.

What about ideologies?

Ideologies can rise and fall. Religious ideologies are probably the most durable in a way because the sanction for departure from the tenets of religious ideology can be depicted in cosmic terms. In other words, religious extremism is probably a harder phenomenon to deal with than Marxism or Leninism, which was connected to a particular political system, which was crumbling to an extent. That is why we no longer see the kind of leftwing radical terrorism in western European countries that we did 30 years ago.

However, I am sceptical whether religious extremism will prove as transitory a phenomenon. There is a Russian proverb that in dire [circumstances], man remembers his God. I suspect that there is a significant core of truth in this, that the alienated, the frustrated, the disaffected and the despairing will always be able to be lowered into forms of religious extremism by a charismatic leadership.

Can you paint some future scenarios of conflict?

There are diverse scenarios that can be realistically defended in different ways. It was commonplace in the early 1990s that intra-state conflict and ethnic conflict was replacing inter-state conflict as a form of destructive behaviour.

Data compiled in the late nineties showed that ethnic conflict was diminishing significantly. That opens the question of whether the next warfare we are going to witness will be what some call asymmetrical or low-intensity conflict.

Transformation of War, a book written a decade ago, strongly suggested that Western military planners should plan for low-intensity conflicts to face the weapons of the weak.

It is striking that there is very little talk now of the National Missile Defence system. That is not surprising. We are moving into an area where low-intensity conflict may be more troublesome.

Has terrorism then wiped out the military superiority of countries like the United States?

Terrorism exposes the limits of the military superiority of the United States. One of the problems that a major power like the US will face is that any use of its military capabilities will take place in a context in which the consequences of a military strike will be broadcast around the world. We can see it now. We are in a different world where images and information can be flashed around the world. That has transformed the socio-political context within which military forces can be used.

How far can the new wave of terrorism impact the emotional integrity of Third World countries and social advancement of the West?

Terrorism can also impact social advancement. The response to terror will now change. Part of the problem that confronts a country like the United States is that it expects a consistent response to the war and is not getting it.

The Taliban massacred over 2,000 people in Mazar-e-Sharif in northern Afghanistan between August 8 and 11. Some estimated it to be around 8,000. But, one did not see mullahs in Pakistan coming out and trying to inspire the crowds against the Taliban. But crowds were being mobilised in Pakistan against the war.

How do you see the linkages of the Taliban with pan-Islamic groups?

The Taliban's links with pan-Islamic groups are somewhat indirect. Initially they were very much a client of the Pakistani ISI. Then Osama bin Laden provided $3 million in September 1996 to the Taliban to buy off commandos between Jalalabad and Kabul. It is easy to underestimate the loyalty of the Taliban to Osama bin Laden for his provision of cash at a crucial time. Otherwise, they would not have made it big without a great deal of casualties. Through Osama bin Laden, Taliban has been a link to most radical groups in the Muslim world.

What are their linkages in West Asia, particularly Saudi Arabia?

Saudi Arabia was the first to recognise the Taliban in 1997 after they entered Mazar-e-Sharif. But after the air strikes in August 1998 of the United States against the Taliban, they froze their relationship and suspended diplomatic relations. But a lot of Saudi sheikhs gave a lot of funds as they saw the Taliban worthy of support.

How do you see Pakistan's role?

Pakistan has been the godfather of the Taliban ever since it started. What we have seen all these years is a creeping invasion of Afghanistan by Pakistan. An estimate said that between 82,000 and 100,000 Pakistanis had crossed over to Afghanistan to provide support to the Taliban between 1994 and 1997. It was covert intervention -- citizens of one country entering another country to offer support.

There has been curious reluctance by the West to confront Pakistan for what it did. The nuclear tests in 1998 made the Western powers reluctant to put any pressure on Pakistan, fearing it would lead to its disintegration and nuclear weapons would fall into hands of fundamentalists. Pakistan cynically manipulated its position.

The kind of conflict that we are now witnessing in Afghanistan is a product of the failure of Western powers to strangle the Taliban in their cradle. Weak analysis and reluctance to use appropriate pressure on the Taliban allowed it to flourish.

Do you sincerely think that President Pervez Musharraf wants to fight terrorism?

I am prepared to give Musharraf some benefit of doubt. He is, of course, the best deal for India and the Western powers because there is not much in Pakistan to choose from. He is trying to bring the Pakistani military leadership under control.

Changing the ISI leadership was a positive development. Having said that, the depth of idealisation within the Pakistani intelligence establishment is very high. It is not going to overnight change the colour of Pakistan's involvement. There may be a discrepancy between what Musharraf says and what he wants. This will be because particular middle-level ISI officials recruited by Hamid Gul will continue to support the Taliban in whatever ways they can. The people in ISI may still be working for the Taliban.

There is something to be said about assisting Musharraf to overcome the economic decay in Pakistan. An economically crumbling Pakistan is not in Afghanistan's interest or India's interest. Pakistan has a young population and they are suffering for what was not their fault.

They could assist in creating a certain moderation of politics in Pakistan.

The Rediff Interviews