Commentary/T V R Shenoy

The Congress is ready to make its bid for power

Which would you prefer -- Prime Minister H D Deve Gowda and Deputy Prime Minister Sharad Pawar, or Prime Minister Sitaram Kesri and Deputy Prime Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav?

1997 is all set to be a great year, isn't it? It promises to witness the return of the Golden Age of Hollywood, the time that saw all those great pairings. Laurel and Hardy? Tom and Jerry? Well, actually I was thinking more on the lines of Arsenic and Old Lace....

All because the Congress thinks power is again within its grasp. The party is thinking of taking over around the second quarter of 1997, the April-June period. But there are two schools of thought on the precise modalities of the takeover (the perennial danger of being a double-faced organisation!).

Party president Kesri sees no reason why he shouldn't be prime minister as well. If a 78 year-old hasbeen can jump from faceless treasurer to all-powerful president in six months, why shouldn't he ascend to supreme power in another six?

Kesri's vaulting ambitions make little of the party's actual strength. Despite the recent additions of Madhavrao Scindia and S Bangarappa, the Congress has just over 140 MPs in the Lok Sabha.

The Congress president believes his secret weapons are Mulayam Singh Yadav and Laloo Prasad Yadav. Both men find that being in the ruling coalition doesn't necessarily pay any dividend.

Mulayam Singh didn't sign up in order to make speeches on Vijay Diwas. His aim is, and always was, the chief minister's chair in Lucknow. That objective is no closer today.

Laloo Prasad Yadav is already a chief minister, and president of the Janata Dal to boot. Neither post has blunted the investigation into the fodder scam.

Both Yadavs are convinced that they can't get 'justice' from the Deve Gowda ministry. Sitaram Kesri is so much more flexible. (Look how eagerly he welcomed Bangarappa with all his faults!)

Turning from north to south, the Congress president has also received some cagey assurances from Moopanar about the Tamil Manila Congress. There is some uncertainty about whether these former Congressmen shall do a Madhavrao Scindia act. But they can still be partners in a Congress-led coalition.

Once all these heavyweights flee the sinking INS Deve Gowda, Kesri shall be well and truly afloat. 'We,' Kesri supporters claim, 'shall from a new configuration.'

Sharad Pawar and Co lack some of Sitaram Kesri's touching faith. However they do have something else on their side -- arithmetic. Pawar knows the ground realities. He knows that the BJP-Shiv Sena-Akali Dal combination will never be part of any Congress-led coalition. That means close to 200 MPs are irrevocably opposed.

That is OK, but what about the other end of the political spectrum -- the Left Front? The Communist brethren can go along with a Janata Dal prime minister. But a Congress prime minister?

The ice-blooded comrades know that in politics it is better to receive support than to give it. They know that the Congress has suffered in Kerala and West Bengal by propping up the United Front. Why should the Left Front make the same mistake?

If the 52 MPs of the Left Front decline to support a Congress prime minister, they will be perfectly placed to give a lead to others. Chandrababu Naidu's 18 MPs will probably follow where Harkishen Singh Surjeet points.

Naidu's point is just as logical as that of the Left Front. It suits him perfectly to take Congress support in Delhi, even as he leisurely crushes that party in Andhra Pradesh. How does he profit if Kesri becomes prime minister?

What is true of the Telugu Desam is equally true of the other Front components -- the DMK and the Asom Gana Parishad. Realistically, it makes little sense in the long term.

The numbers mount up against Kesri's ambitions. Even if the Yadavs can whip 46 MPs behind the Congress -- a very big if -- the arithmetic just doesn't add up. Which is why Pawar has a more sophisticated suggestion: 'Don't pull down the United Front just now. Join it, and destroy it from inside'.

Sharad Pawar will be content to enjoy the deputy prime ministership right now, along with a few key ministers for his men. Then, an opportune moment, he can topple the Deve Gowda administration, and go in for a general election.

Pawar does make sense. And if can pull it off there is a bonus for him -- he finishes off Kesri. A Congress president simply can't be No 2. But once Pawar is in a position to dole out the goodies, it is good-bye Kesri. Ever since Prime Minister Nehru and Congress president Tandon tangled, Congressmen have known which side of the bread was buttered.

In effect, Pawar is ready to settle for half a loaf whereas Kesri wants it all. No matter who wins, however, it spells trouble for the Deve Gowda ministry. Because the average Congressman is finally tiring of being bonded labour for the United Front. As tired, perhaps, as the two Yadavs are of knuckling to Deve Gowda.

Will either plan work? The answer to that lies only in the future. All that can be said right now is that the second quarter of 1997 is going to be very interesting indeed.

'Happy the people,' runs an old adage, 'who have no history.' What can I say but 'Happy New Year'!