The Centre is likely to lower its revenue estimates for this fiscal because the direct tax collection till the end of January 2003 has fallen 40 per cent short of target.

The total collection of Rs 54,871.70 crore (Rs 548.717 billion), net of refunds, is only 60 per cent of the target of Rs 91,140 crore (Rs 911.40 billion) set for corporation and income tax.

This is a growth of 17.29 per cent over Rs 46,781.25 crore (Rs 467.812 billion) in the corresponding period of 2001-02.

Tax collections till the end of January form the basis of projections by the ministry about the possibility of achieving the target in the current fiscal as well as in setting the target for the next fiscal.

The growth rate of indirect tax collections, especially Customs, has been way below the target this fiscal.

While there is some chance of a correction later for delayed reporting, the gap will still be difficult to bridge. The revenue department also gets its last instalment of advance corporation tax in March.

The revised direct tax collection figure in 2001-02 was Rs 73,497 crore (Rs 734.97 billion), compared to the Budget estimate of Rs 84,800 crore (Rs 848 billion).

The corporation tax collection in April-January 2002-03 was Rs 29,222.42 crore (Rs 292.224 billion) against Rs 23,654.60 crore (Rs 236.546 billion) in the corresponding period of last fiscal, a growth of 23.54 per cent.

However, the income tax collected was Rs 25,649.28 crore (Rs 256.492 billion) against Rs 23,126.65 crore (Rs 231.266 billion) in the same period of 2001-02, a rise of only 10.91 per cent.

The low growth pulled down the average to 17.29 per cent.

Corporate tax collection in Mumbai has fallen short of the national average, growing by 20.66 per cent from Rs 9,344.78 crore (Rs 93.447 billion) to Rs 11,275.55 crore (Rs 112.755 billion).

The circle, however, registered a 17.14 per cent growth in income tax collection to Rs 6,092 crore (Rs 60.92 billion) from Rs 5,210.73 crore (Rs 52.107 billion).

But the second largest zone, Delhi, has recorded a dip in corporate tax collection of Rs 5,027.36 crore (Rs 50.273 billion) against Rs 5,033.45 crore (Rs 50.334 billion) in April-December 2001-02.

In income tax, the position is much better as the collection has increased 23 per cent to Rs 3,694.20 crore (Rs 36.942 billion) compared with Rs 3,021.64 crore (Rs 30.216 billion) in the same period last fiscal.

Run-up to the Budget 2003