Most likely winner: Moulin Rouge for its big-budget musical production.
Most deserving winner: AI: Artificial Intelligence, after all, it is the last picture that will ever have Stanley Kubrick's name in the credits.

Stanely Kubrick & Steven Spielberg, AI: Artificial Intelligence
Joel Coen, The Man Who Wasn't There
Robert Altman, Gosford Park
David Lynch, Mulholland Drive
Christopher Nolan, Memento

Most likely winner: AI: Artificial Intelligence, for the unlikely combination of Kubrick and Spielberg.
Most deserving winner: Artificial Intelligence, same as above.

Billy Bob Thornton, The Man Who Wasn't There
Benjamin Brat, Pinero
Sean Penn, I Am Sam
Russell Crowe, A Beautiful Mind
Johnny Depp, From Hell, Blow

Most likely winner: Sean Penn, because Russell Crowe won last year.
Most deserving winner: Benjamin Bratt, for taking a role John Leguizamo passed up.

Nicole Kidman, The Others, Moulin Rouge
Sissy Spacek,In The Bedroom
Julianne Moore, The Shipping News
Audrey Tautou, Amelie
Halle Berry, Monster's Ball

Most likely winner: Nicole Kidman, for surviving Tom.
Most deserving winner: Halle Berry, for a love scene (with Billy Bob Thornton) that should go down in Hollywood history.

Richard Harris, Harry Potter and the Sorceror's Stone
Jude Law, AI: Artificial Intelligence
James Gandolfini, The Man Who Wasn't There
Heath Ledger, Monster's Ball
Brad Pitt, Snatch, Ocean's Eleven

Most likely winner: James Gandolfini, who played a working stiff as well as he normally plays gangsters.
Most deserving winner: Brad Pitt, for his role as an Irish gypsy in Snatch.

Helen Mirren, Gosford Park
Cate Blanchett, The Lord of the Rings
Emma Watson, Harry Potter
Kelly MacDonald , Gosford Park
Helena Bonham Carter, Planet of the Apes

Most likely winner: Helena Bonham Carter in an almost all-British list (Cate is Aussie.)
Most deserving winner: Kelly MacDonald for the kind of Scottish glottal stop you cannot fake.

Julian Fellowes, Gosford Park
Akiva Goldsman, A Beautiful Mind
Peter Jackson, The Lord of the Rings
Christopher Nolan, Memento
Leon Ichaso, Pinero

Most likely winner: Akiva Goldsman for A Beautiful Mind just because of the kind of publicity the film-makers have put into its Oscar run.
Most deserving winner: Christopher Nolan, whose Memento had the kind of intricate plotting few debut writer/directors can pull off.

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