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260-280 seats for NDA: NDTV exit poll

April 21, 2004 00:56 IST

Exit poll conducted by NDTV projected the NDA-led alliance ahead with 70-80 seats followed by Congress and Allies with 50-60 seats and 10-15 to Others out of the 140 Lok Sabha constituencies where elections were held in the first phase on Tuesday.

The all-India projections showed that the BJP-led NDA would end up with 260-280 seats followed by 165-185 for Congress and Allies and 100-115 to Others.

The exit polls suggested major inroads by NDA in Maharashtra and Karnataka but reverses in Bihar and for the TDP-BJP alliance in Andhra Pradesh.

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In Maharashtra where elections were held for 24 of the 48 Lok Sabha seats in the first phase, the exit polls showed that BJP-Shiv Sena combine was very well placed with the alliance likely to wrest 15 seats and the Congress-NCP alliance eight because of a 10% swing against the latter.

The exit poll showed a minor swing against the BJP in Gujarat where the party recently romped home in the assembly elections with a thumping majority. It showed that a 1% swing away from BJP in the western state could cost it two seats - from the earlier 20 - while Congress would increase its tally to eight.

It was not 'feel good' for TDP chief N Chandrababu Naidu as his party and its ally BJP is witnessing a 6% vote swing against them in the southern state of Andhra Pradesh resulting in a sharp drop in the kitty of the ruling party to a mere three seats out of the 21, which went to polls on Tuesday, while the tally of Congress and Allies would go up to 17.

It projected a massive 9% vote swing against the Congress and a 4% swing in favour of the BJP in Karnataka where the saffron party is trying to grab power for the first time. The BJP is likely to get 11 of the 15 Lok Sabha seats that went to polls in the first phase while the Congress is trailing behind at three. The projection for all the 28 seats in the state, according to NDTV, is 21 in favour of BJP, five for Congress and two for others.

In contrast, a 4% swing in favour of the Congress in Orissa would not translate into sufficient seats. It is likely to get only three of the 11 seats that went to polls on Tuesday. The overall projection for the state is 18 for BJD-BJP alliance and three for Congress.

In Bihar, the ruling RJD-led alliance of Laloo Prasad Yadav is set to bag seven seats and NDA only four out of the 11 that went to poll on Tuesday, representing a 3% swing in favour of the ruling party in the state. The overall projection for the state is the ruling RJD and its allies would bag 23 seats, NDA 15 and others two.

In Naxalite-affected Jharkhand, the BJP is likely to bag four of the six seats that went to polls with the remaining going to Congress.

In neighbouring Chhattisgarh, the honeymoon period for the BJP continued as the party is likely to bag 10 of the 11 Lok Sabha seats with the remaining going to the Congress.

Graphical analysis: What exit polls say

In Assam, the ruling Congress is likely to bag two seats while the Assom Gana Parishad, which was completely wiped out in the last Lok Sabha polls, is poised for a comeback with two seats out of the six that went to polls in the first phase. The statewide projection gives the Congress seven out of the 14 seats followed by three to the AGP and two each for BJP and others.

NDTV, however, made it clear that exit polls could go wrong.

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Sub: Opinion-exit poll

For phase I NDTV gave 97 to BJP+ and 33 to Cong+ in opinion poll-I and 83 and 47 respectively in poll-II and 75 and ...

Posted by Dr. Tirath Garg


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