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NDA leading, say Exit Polls

April 20, 2004 21:48 IST
Last Updated: April 21, 2004 00:57 IST

Exit polls conducted by major television networks have placed the National Democratic Alliance ahead of the Congress and Allies in the 140 constituencies that went to polls in the first phase of the Lok Sabha elections held on Tuesday.

While Aaj Tak's poll gave 93 seats to the NDA, seven more than in the last elections, Star News projected that the BJP-led combine would get 80 seats.

Star News projected 53 seats for Congress and its allies while Aaj Tak put the figure at 44. The two channels gave 'Others' three and seven seats, respectively.

The Zee-Taleem survey showed the NDA getting between 63 and 78 seats and the Congress and Allies between 37 and 50 seats. It gave up to 16 seats to 'Others'.

The DRS-Sahara exit poll showed the saffron-led combine getting 82 seats, six less than in 1999, and the Congress getting 55 - nine more than last time and 'Others' getting 3.

Based on the assumption that similar polling trends would continue in the remaining phases, Aaj Tak predicted 288 seats for the NDA, 159 for Congress and its allies and 96 for Others in the 543-member House.

Graphical analysis: What exit polls say

Aaj Tak, which made its predictions on the basis of interviews of 31,108 electors spread across 16 states and UTs, said that both NDA and Congress and Allies would improve their vote share by 4% each at the expense of Others.

According to it, NDA would get 49% of the vote in the first phase, Congress and Allies 44% and Others 7%.

By and large, Tuesday's polls showed a sweep for the BJP in Gujarat and a neck-to-neck race in Maharashtra.

While the Aaj Tak polls showed BJP getting 23 out of 26 seats in Gujarat, Zee showed the party getting between 18 and 20 seats and the rest going to the Congress.

In Maharashtra, the polls showed the Congress-Nationalist Congress Party winning in 12 out of the 24 seats for which polls were held on Tuesday, the BJP-Shiv Sena is likely to get 11 while the BSP two to three, the Aaj Tak survey said. Zee projected 10-12 seats for Cong/NCP and 6-8 seats to BJP-Shiv Sena.

In Andhra Pradesh, the TDP-BJP combine is seen to be lagging behind with eight seats while Congress and Allies are getting 13 of the 21 seats that went to polls, Aaj Tak said. Zee gave the Congress combine 10-12 seats and the TDP-BJP 8-10 seats.

Surprisingly, according to Zee, the TDP-BJP and Congress are neck-and-neck in the assembly polls. The former is ahead in 63-71 seats while the Congress comes close with leads in 70-76 of the 147 seats where polling was held.

In Karnataka, the Aaj Tak survey showed BJP ahead with 11 seats and Congress in four of the 15 Lok Sabha constituencies which went to polls while the Zee gave BJP 3-5 seats, Congress 4-6 and Janata Dal (Secular) 2-4 seats.

In Bihar where polling was held in 11 seats, Aaj Tak and Zee made near similar projections: JD (United)-BJP combine ahead in nine seats while Congress-RJD is ahead in 2-3 seats.

Aaj Tak showed Congress getting two seats in Orissa and the BJP-BJD combine ahead in nine of the 11 seats, while Zee gave BJP-BJD 5-9 and Congress 3-5.

What NDTV's exit poll says

In Jharkhand, Zee showed BJP ahead in five of the six seats, while Aaj Tak gave it lead in four seats with the remaining going to the Congress.

In Chhattisgarh, they showed the BJP ahead in 5-7 and Congress ahead in 3-5 in the eleven seats of the state.

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Number of User Comments: 7

Sub: poll and after

The claim of BJP of getting absolute majority of its own and results of opinion and exit polls not withstanding I reiterate that with every ...

Posted by Dr. Tirath Garg

Sub: Going in right direction

All, Surveys use mathematical probability. You do not necessarily ask each voter about there opinion. Using laws of probability, it always comes close to reality. ...

Posted by venkat

Sub: Sample size

The sample size and the number of constituencies taken for the exit polls is very low for achieving the real projections. NDTV has taken samples ...

Posted by Venkatesh

Sub: Jumping the gun

The exit polls conducted by various TV channels lack credibility because they are actually sample surveys. By contacting a few of those who have voted, ...

Posted by emvy

Sub: Zee telefilms exit polls

i think zee tv is giving biased exit polls due to such attitude it low rated news channel in india my exit poll for 2004 ...

Posted by gaonkar vinay


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