The BJP has been pushing the two AIADMK groups to merge and then get the Sasikala clan out of the party and government.
With election campaign ending in Tamil Nadu before it goes to polls on Thursday, N Sathiya Moorthy lists a few questions uppermost in the minds of voters.
As the merger brought to an end weeks of suspense during which there was tough negotiations, the two factions said steps would be taken to expel party chief V K Sasikala.
'Of equal importance was the AIADMK's precarious assembly membership, what with 11 of its MLAs including deputy chief minister OPS facing court cases for disqualification and by-elections due in another 21. To shore up the party's numbers for anticipated eventuality on the 11-MLAs' front, the AIADMK leadership in general and chief minister EPS in particular, were even more focussed on assembly seats than LS seats, just now,' says N Sathiya Moorthy.
'The BJP doesn't have to do anything except nudge the AIADMK in one direction.'
Panneerselvam also remained firm on his faction's demand for a probe into late J Jayalalithaa's death.
A meeting presided over by Palaniswami said the appointment of Dinakaran as deputy general secretary was against party rules.
The DMK has Stalin and Stalin alone as the key campaigner. The rest of them all, including half-sister Kanimozhi, are tied down to their own constituencies while those like party treasurer and former minister S Duraimurugan, to those of their children's constituencies.
Former Chief Minister Panneerselvam could muster only 11 votes, ending the prolonged stalemate triggered by his rebellion.
Monday's surprise meeting is an admission by the Bharatiya Janata Party that their purported strategy of hoping to ride the popular 'Modi wave' in a Tamil Nadu without Jaya and a bed-ridden Karunanidhi does not have much chance of success, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
For Stalin and the DMK, the declaration was the essence of the commencement of seat-sharing talks with the Congress, and even more, the launch of their combined campaign for the LS polls. That meant the DMK had to send out a message also to the 'minorities' in the state, who had deserted the DMK and very badly at that in the critical, post-Jaya R K Nagar assembly bypolls last year, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
In the absence of the over-arching 'Jaya charisma', EPS has to convince the AIADMK's traditional constituencies, including those in his western districts, that his leadership would stand up against the BJP-led Centre even in a post-poll scenario, a la Jayalalithaa, and would not yield as much as party founder MGR had done, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
TTV Dinakaran's road to reaching the poll stage could still be strewn with legal difficulties, as much as political problems from other new players, like actors Kamal Hassan and Rajinikanth, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Given Modi's penchant for springing a surprise, the BJP nominee for next President could be anyone. The only thing certain is that it will be an RSS person, reports R Rajagopalan.
If something stands out in the one year since Jayalalithaa's passing, it would be her famed leadership qualities and her ability to reach out to the party and the people above the second line, and also the state administration, to the exclusion of all the rest. Only Indira Gandhi had achieved it all in her time, and no other leader, possibly excepting Prime Modi Modi, could hold a candle to that, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
The DMK combine has won 37 of the 38 LS constituencies in Tamil Nadu, and bagged 13 of the 22 assembly bypolls. What swept away the AIADMK-BJP alliance in the southern state was not dravidian ideology but job loss and graft bias, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
The deaths of Jayalalithaa and M Karunanidhi within months of each other neutralises any sympathy factor their parties may hope to gain from. What's more, by removing charismatic leaders from the fray, it also levels the field for others, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
'What we see here is puppetry. The string is with the BJP.' 'All the puppets here are dancing to the direction the BJP pulls the strings.'
Considering that the Supreme Court has now included two, rather three, new variable to the tribunal's findings, it could imply that whenever the current order comes in for review, the two states could raise specific issues flowing from them, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Calculated or otherwise, if Azhagiri's firing of the first salvo after Karunanidhi's death does not create some space for him to politico-electorally exploit at a later date, there may not be any space left for him at all, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Today, when one Kamalahaasan launches a new political outfit, vowing to cleanse Tamil Nadu polity and political administration of corruption, mal-governance and non-governance, he is pitted not only against Rajini with his commitment to 'spiritual politics', he is also pitted against the real 'Lotus' in Tamil Nadu politics, representing the ruling BJP at the Centre, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Considering that all sides to the game feel being targeted by the BJP-ruled Centre through taxmen and their ED/CBI counterparts, both factions may not rule out the possibility of patching up after a time, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
The two rival factions of the AIADMK may have merged, but there are problems staring at it on all fronts -- governmental, political, electoral and organisational, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
DMK leader MK Stalin is concerned that a no-trust move would force the EPS faction to patch up with not only the OPS group but also the TTV camp and also get the 'Two Leaves' poll symbol unfrozen, which could upset his party's electoral apple cart, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
The BJP calculates that simultaneous polls to Parliament and TN assembly could help it, intent as it is on making the state break from its Dravidian past, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Given the twin embarrassments of a TTV win and party nominee Karu Nagarajan losing his deposit, polling fewer votes than NOTA, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP boss Amit Shah would be pushed to rethink their strategy. Tamil Nadu would thus become a part of the BJP's grander strategy for 2019 rather than a stand-alone affair, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
A look at the financials of some of the key companies in the Sasikala clan's business empire.
The Rs 89 crore question before Tamil Nadu now is what shape a central intervention would take, and if there would be any role whatsoever for acting governor, Ch Vidyasagar Rao, in it, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
The judiciary has often shied away from contesting the speaker's right or that of the legislature, but it has not always avoided taking a close look at the processes employed and arrive at conclusions that are binding on all concerned, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
For now, Edappadi K Palaniswami is in the saddle in Tamil Nadu, and firmly so. Both inside the party and the government, he has made OPS a yes-man, as the latter used to be under Jayalalithaa, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Barring Maharashtra, the poll percentage in rest of the states was in excess of 60 per cent while in Puducherry it was 80.47 per cent.
Will the EC would make an example of the RK Nagar by-election, either by ensuring free and fair polls or by countermanding the same, asks N Sathiya Moorthy.
'There are many people like me who were kept away from Jayalalithaa.' 'There is a coterie who did not allow her to meet people.'
But not for too long, as TTV Dinakaran can still play spoilsport, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
The BJP's national leadership seems to have convinced itself that with a weakened, post-Jaya AIADMK for company, they should be able to strike roots before long, and start by winning about 10-15 Lok Sabha seats in 2019, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
The 'AIADMK symbol issue' may be a fit case for the courts and the legislature to provide for a new law for application in similar fluid, dynamic political situations, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
For the AIADMK's cadres, it is much more than an election symbol, they believe the party's electoral chances rest on owning it, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Despite the BJP's displeasure over Sasikala's elevation as AIADMK general secretary, the Dravidian party has sent a message to the Modi government that it will not be cowed down, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Even without Shah's TN visit and the rest, the increasing bonhomie between the BJP and the AIADMK factions in the state have become more visible than ever in the post-Jaya era, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
To elect, or re-elect a chief minister, the AIADMK needs to call only the MLAs for a meeting. But to elect a new general secretary, it would have to conduct direct elections with all registered cadres participating and voting. And that is just the beginning of its problems, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
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