Who Derailed Tarique Rahman's India Visit?

Who is running the show in Dhaka?
This kind of flip-flop, culminating in a last-minute decision to skip a maiden visit, can happen only when the remote is in the hands of one of the competing lobbies within the BNP -- one that appears determined to play a game of chess with India.

Bangladesh Prime Minister Tarique Rahman was scheduled to visit India on August 23 and 24, and New Delhi obviously had begun making the necessary preparations.

A draft six-point agenda discussed between India's High Commissioner in Dhaka Dinesh Trivedi and Bangladesh Foreign Secretary Asad Alam Siam -- who earlier served as Bangladesh ambassador to the US -- had been agreed upon.

There were some inconvenient issues on the agenda for both sides.

Yet they agreed to move ahead with the programme, confident that a little less ego and a little more perspective at the negotiating table could help achieve a mutually beneficial outcome, according to sources.

So, what was the six-point agenda?

• Outstanding water issues, including the Ganges Water Treaty: In 1996 the Ganges Water Sharing Treaty was signed for 30 years and it is due to expire in December this year.
  The absence of a formal renegotiation structure on this particular treaty is risky.
  All river-related issues with Bangladesh are discussed under the Joint Rivers Commission, and Ganges Water Treaty meetings 'continue to be held at the technical level'.
• Outstanding issues in existing agreements: Discussion on the implementation of outstanding issues related to treaties already in force between the two countries.
• Pushbacks: A large number of illegal Bangladeshis were pushed back during the West Bengal assembly elections. Many have started returning through the porous border.
• Resources and energy: Discussions on the supply and outstanding issues relating to diesel, electricity and other resources, as well as whether additional supplies could be provided.
  Bangladesh is facing an acute power shortage, which is affecting ready-made garment factories -- the country's biggest source of export revenue -- as well as ordinary citizens across the country.
• Trade and trade-related issues: These included transshipment and the use of ports. Bangladesh's business community has repeatedly raised these issues with its government in Dhaka.
• Awami League-related issues: Repatriation of Awami League members who have taken shelter in India, as well as broader issues concerning the party, including its ban.

Although a draft agenda on these six points came rather late in the day -- particularly as New Delhi is busy preparing for the BRICS Summit in mid-September and for other high-level visits -- India had nevertheless agreed to accord the Bangladesh prime minister a warm welcome and subsequent bilateral discussions at Hyderabad House.

India had invited Tarique Rahman twice. The first invitation came soon after he took over as prime minister in February; the second was for the BRICS outreach session.

Rahman did not come on the first occasion, but Foreign Minister Khalilur Rahman made a diplomatic visit to India in April, marking the first high-level bilateral visit by a Bangladesh minister since the Bangladesh Nationalist Party-led (BNP) government came to power.

Rahman has not declined either invitation outright. He has not said 'No'.

The first time, New Delhi chose to give him the benefit of the doubt, understanding his position against the backdrop of Bangladesh's domestic politics.

For Rahman, travelling to India as prime minister was politically complicated: Sheikh Hasina, the leader of his rival party and a former prime minister, is sheltering in India, while opponents at home are demanding her extradition.

India-Bangladesh Back-Channel Talks Gain Pace

When Khalilur Rahman came, he was accorded a warm welcome in New Delhi. He met his counterpart, Foreign Minister S Jaishankar, and other senior officials.

Khalilur Rahman is seen as being close to the United States. On June 2, he was elected president of the 81st session of the United Nations General Assembly.

He therefore carries a dual responsibility -- as Bangladesh's foreign minister and as president of the UN General Assembly.

On June 5, Dinesh Trivedi, a suave politician known for his measured, calculated and guarded words, presented his credentials to the Bangladesh president.

After that, back-channel talks gathered pace. Discussions continued at the diplomatic level, largely away from the public eye.

In July, Mohammed Shahabuddin stepped down as Bangladesh's president under intense political pressure over his perceived proximity to Sheikh Hasina.

There was also strong speculation that Muhammad Yunus, chief adviser to the interim government and known to be close to the United States, was inclined to become president.

But those plans fell through. On August 20, BNP nominee Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir was elected.

Before that, on August 5, Sheikh Hasina held a virtual press conference at the Foreign Correspondents Club in New Delhi to mark the second anniversary of the 2024 uprising that led to her ouster.

She announced that she intended to return to Bangladesh regardless of the circumstances and called on the international community to support the restoration of democracy in Bangladesh.

This triggered a 'complicated' situation. Her announcement to return to Bangladesh shook her rivals at home, who began criticising India for 'allowing' her to speak freely.

New Delhi, however, was clear that the press conference had been organised privately by the Foreign Correspondents Club and that the Indian government had nothing to do with it.

When it comes to the BNP-led government, the BNP itself is a mixed bag comprising leaders with widely differing perspectives. Some are pro-India, while others are anti-India.

There are also factions that are pro-US and anti-US, as well as pro-Pakistan and anti-Pakistan.

Leaders especially those aligned with the pro-US lobby raised a red flag over Hasina's press conference. Murmurs of differing viewpoints started surfacing from within the BNP-led government, exposing that it's a divided house.

BNP Lobby Derails India Visit

It appears that the pro-US lobby within the BNP became a spoke in the wheel of the August 23-24 visit plans.

According to sources closely watching developments in Bangladesh, the lobby apparently insisted that either the issue of Sheikh Hasina be highlighted prominently in the six-point agenda or that it be raised separately, given the political significance in Bangladesh.

Such a demand apparently frustrated even those who had been diligently preparing for the prime minister's visit to India.

A majority of people in Bangladesh were looking forward to Tarique Rahman's visit, hoping that it would open a window for better relations between the two countries and help Bangladesh emerge from its acute shortages in every front including power, energy and diesel.

Notwithstanding the fact that a section of popular voices within the government saw a silver lining in Tarique Rahman's proposed visit to India, plans against the visit was already underway and it became clear from an August 17 interview given by the prime minister's Foreign Affairs Adviser Humayun Kobir to the online portal Bangladesh Sangbad Sangstha.

'There is no justification for rushing into a top-level visit by going beyond the national interest.' Kobir said.

'The possibility of the prime minister visiting India ahead of the upcoming BRICS Summit remains slim unless an appropriate environment is created based on consensus between the two countries on specific issues and a dignified invitation,' Kobir added.

Indeed Tarique Rahman has not said 'No', as one diplomat pointed out. Therefore, the window of opportunity for an India visit in future still remains open.

But one cannot help wondering: Who is running the show in Dhaka?

This kind of flip-flop, culminating in a last-minute decision to skip a maiden visit, can happen only when the remote is in the hands of one of the competing lobbies within the BNP -- one that appears determined to play a game of chess with India.

Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff