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What may happen if India voted TODAY!

July 25, 2013 08:19 IST

Rediff Newsdesk

The fact that Narendra Modi is unbeatable in his own backyard is something that the Gujarat strongman has proved time and again. Come 2014, Bharatiya Janata Party’s almost-certain prime ministerial candidate will cement that contention

The results of a CNN-IBN and The Hindu poll conducted by Centre for the Study of Developing Societies shows that the BJP is poised for a near clean sweep in Gujarat under the leadership of Narendra Modi.

The seat projections show the BJP is likely to clean sweep Gujarat with an estimated 20-24 seats and a leading vote share of 56 per cent, in case of a snap poll today.

The Congress is to continue with its poor performance in the state with an estimated 2-6 seats and a vote share of 34 per cent.

The poll results show that in terms of vote share, compared to previous Lok Sabha elections, it seems the loss of the Congress is the BJP’s gain in Gujarat. The vote share of the Congress is likely to fall significantly by 9 per cent compared 2009.

The BJP is likely to gain 9 per cent votes compared to its performance in last election at the expense of the Congress.

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41 per cent want Modi as PM if BJP wins

Image: Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi
Photographs: Reuters

About 64 per cent of the respondents were satisfied with the Modi administration in Gujarat while 23 per cent felt that Modi needed to do more.

The poll also assessed the popular choice for chief ministership in case Modi took up the reigns in New Delhi post 2014 Lok Sabha polls.

A huge 61 per cent of the respondents found it difficult to name a candidate to step into Modi’s shoes in the state. Amit Shah (9 per cent) and Anandi Patel (7 per cent) found some support for the chief minister’s post.

On whether the BJP should name Modi as the prime minister candidate, 41 per cent responded in favour while another 35 per cent wanted him to be made the prime minister if the party came to power.

Veteran party leader L K Advani emerged as the second popular choice for the PM’s post with 12 per cent of the respondents naming him.

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Good news for Congress in Maharashtra

Image: (Left) Maharashtra Chief Minister Prithviraj Chavan (Right) Deputy CM Ajit Pawar

In Maharashtra, the Congress is likely to maintain its lead in a close contest against the alliance of BJP and Shiv Sena, if elections were to be held today, the poll says.

The Congress-NCP government's report card projected that when it came to control of corruption, 66 per cent respondents felt that nothing had changed; on the condition of roads, 64 per cent said it has remained the same or deteriorated; on the condition of farmers, 69 per cent said it has remained same or deteriorated.

Ironically, the Congress-NCP government’s popularity grew from 55 per cent to 64 per cent in the last two years.

In what can be seen as another shot in the arm for the state government, 53 per cent respondents were satisfied with the handling of the drought situation in parts of the state.

The emerging third force in the state, the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena is likely to end up with 0-2 seats and a vote share of 5 per cent, the poll projects.

While 48 per cent of the respondents felt that Raj Thackeray was more suited to take late Bal Thackeray’s legacy forward, another 55 per cent believed that the Shiv Sena and the MNS could contest the 2014 Lok Sabha elections together.

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Jaya wins Tamil Nadu; no sympathy for Karunanidhi

Image: Tamil Nadu Chief Minister J Jayalalitha
Photographs: Reuters

In Tamil Nadu, the CSDS poll shows that the ruling All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam is likely to hold on in the state.

The seat projection in Tamil Nadu shows the AIADMK is likely to get 16-20 seats; the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam is likely to get 8-12 seats while the Congress will end up with 1-5 seats, in case of a snap poll today.

The poll shows Jayalalithaa’s AIADMK will hold sway in Tamil Nadu with 26 per cent vote share while the arch rival DMK is pushed to third place with 16 per cent votes and the Congress will catch up in the second position with 18 per cent votes. 

Forty three per cent respondents rated the Jayalalitha government as being better than that of DMK chief Karunanidhi

The poll highlighted the lack of sympathy among respondents for the DMK with 40 per cent terming the party's decision to withdraw from the UPA as a political drama

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Congress rides success in Karnataka

Image: Karnataka legislative assembly
Photographs: Reuters

In Karnataka, the Congress party is likely to emulate its assembly election success with projected 18-22 seats while the BJP is likely to finish way behind with just 2-6 seats along with Janata Dal-Secular, the poll observes.

The poll shows that the Congress will continue its hold in Karnataka with 47 per cent vote share while the BJP would trail far behind with 20 per cent vote share.

Even though many in the BJP are not quite keen on it, 32 per cent respondents felt that B S Yeddyurappa who formed his own political outfit called Karnataka Janata Paksha should return to the BJP. 17 per cent felt that he should do so only if the BJP asks him to.

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Telangana decides Andhra Pradesh fortunes

Image: A pro Telangana protestor
Photographs: Reuters

The opinion polls predicts a neck and neck race between the ruling Congress and the YSR Congress in Andhra Pradesh.

Both the Congress and the YSR Congress are likely to finish with 11-15 seats, the poll observed, adding that the main opposition, the Telugu Desam Party was likely to get 6-10 seats while 6-10 seats will go to the Telangana Rashtra Samiti.

Telangana issue may well be the deciding factor in which way political fortunes swing in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections with 55 per cent respondents stating that the stand on statehood demand will affect their decision of whom to vote for.

Even though 34 per cent respondents felt that YSR Congress chief Jagan Mohan Reddy was corrupt, he managed to get the highest votes (25 per cent) for being the best suited leader to lead Andhra Pradesh.

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A vote on UPA's welfare policies

Photographs: Press Information Bureau

The opinion poll also assessed the United Progressive Alliance’s welfare schemes.

About 54 per cent of the respondents said they had not benefitted from UPA’s schemes.

On awareness about UPA's schemes

MNREGA: 78 per cent people aware, 47 per cent have benefitted from it
Farm loan waiver: 64 per cent aware, 30 per cent have benefitted
Food Security Bill: Only 19 per cent aware
Direct Cash Transfer: Only 21 per cent aware of it

Of those who have heard of Food Bill, will it impact their vote?

37 per cent say it will
28 per cent say it will not

Are Muslim youth being falsely implicated in terror cases?

41 per cent say yes, 25 per cent say no
56 per cent Muslims say yes
62 per cent Urban Muslims say yes

Is naxalism greatest threat to internal security?

45 per cent say yes,
13 per cent say no

On dealing with naxalism

34 per cent feel grievances of adivasis need to be addressed
21 per cent favoured the use of force
16 per cent want the government to call a ceasefire with the Naxals

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60 per cent feel UPA government is corrupt

Image: Prime Minister Manmohan Singh
Photographs: Reuters

The taint of corruption seems to have torn the sails of the UPA government.

The poll revealed that 60 per cent respondents felt that the UPA is corrupt.

Another 69 per cent said the level of corruption under UPA II had risen in the last two years.

The findings are based on a nation-wide survey conducted by the Lokniti network of the Delhi-based CSDS.

19,062 voters were interviewed across 267 randomly selected Parliamentary constituencies in 18 states.

The sample size for states like UP, Maharashtra, West Bengal, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh were bigger than the sample size for smaller states like Delhi, Haryana, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Assam.

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