Assembly by-elections in Madurantakam and Dharapuram will offer an early measure of the TVK's electoral strength and put the dynamics of its new alliance in focus.
Key Points
- Madurantakam and Dharapuram bypolls will test TVK's electoral standing and cohesion within its new alliance.
- Both constituencies became vacant after AIADMK MLAs resigned and joined the ruling TVK months after winning.
- The SSJVA includes TVK, Congress, VCK, MDMK and IUML, raising questions over overlapping Opposition alliances.
- Congress-TVK tensions have intensified over Vijay's projection as a potential prime ministerial candidate for 2029.
- Vijay's confrontation with M K Stalin has added another dimension to an already closely watched Tamil Nadu political contest.
Tamil Nadu's new political bloc, the Secular Social Justice Victory Alliance (SSJVA), faces its first electoral test on October 6, when by-elections in two constituencies will offer an early indication of the ruling Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam's (TVK's) electoral standing and test cohesion within the alliance.
The Madurantakam and Dharapuram seats fell vacant after All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) MLAs Maragatham Kumaravel and P Sathyabama resigned and joined the TVK months after winning the April 2026 assembly election. Both constituencies are reserved for scheduled caste candidates.
The alliance faces multiple headwinds: Local resentment over the legislators' defections, a widening rift with the Congress over Chief Minister C Joseph Vijay's projection as a potential prime ministerial candidate for 2029, and an escalating war of words between Vijay and former chief minister M K Stalin that could benefit the main Opposition, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK).
"This is a litmus test for the TVK. There is strong resentment in both constituencies against the TVK candidates for resigning after winning the elections for the AIADMK," veteran political analyst Sumanth Raman said.
"Even if the TVK loses one seat, it will be a huge blow for the party, as in Tamil Nadu, by-election trends are in favour of ruling parties."
On the other hand, the TVK's advantages include Vijay's popularity, the government's 'zero-tolerance' approach to corruption and faster clearances for certain projects, including real estate.
Social-sector initiatives, such as providing a one-gram gold ring to newborns, are said to have also bolstered its appeal.
But the cancellation of the Parandur greenfield airport project has dealt a blow to the state's pro-industry image, analysts say, particularly after a considerable share of the land acquisition had already been completed.
Vijay, earlier this month, named Kumaravel and Sathyabama as TVK's candidates for Madurantakam and Dharapuram, respectively.
"Both these constituencies are traditional strongholds of the AIADMK. It will not be a cakewalk for the TVK, though the party has an initial advantage," political analyst Venkatesh Ramaiah said.
The DMK is fielding I Paranthamen, the party's legal wing deputy secretary and former Egmore MLA, in Madurantakam, in Chengalpattu district. Its women's wing leader S Suganya will contest Dharapuram in Tiruppur district.
The AIADMK has named Kanitha Sampath, a two-time MLA from the Chengalpattu region, in Madurantakam and women's wing joint secretary K Bhanumathi in Dharapuram.
A new alliance, old fault lines
The SSJVA's formation comes amid questions over the relevance of two alliances in Tamil Nadu with overlapping membership and broadly similar ideologies, as well as an increasingly public dispute between the Congress and the TVK.
The alliance was formally named on September 9. Besides the TVK, its partners include the Congress, the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK), the Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK) and the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML).
The alliance is expected to announce a common minimum programme.
The overlap with the INDIA bloc, which includes the Congress, has raised questions about the purpose of maintaining two coalitions with largely the same parties.
The TVK holds 107 seats in the 234-member Tamil Nadu assembly, below the majority mark of 118.
The Left parties, meanwhile, are staying out of the alliance and will contest the by-elections independently, even as they continue to support the TVK government from outside.
"After discussing with our party workers and with the Left parties, we have decided to contest alone. While the Communist Party of India will contest from Dharapuram constituency, the Communist Party of India-Marxist will contest from Madurantakam constituency," CPI State Secretary M Veerapandian said.
By-elections are also pending in five other vacant assembly seats, though dates have not been announced because of pending cases.
Congress pushback over 'Vijay for PM' pitch
The Congress-TVK rift intensified last month after senior TVK leader K A Sengottaiyan floated Vijay's name for prime minister in 2029, drawing sharp criticism from the Congress.
'People from north Indian states are also looking forward to our leader Vijay; he is the one who has the power to rule entire India,' Sengottaiyan said at a meeting in Tiruppur marking the TVK government's first 100 days.
'I have travelled with MGR (M G Ramachandran) and Jayalalithaa. After these two leaders, Vijay is the force who will not only rule Tamil Nadu but also the future India, following their path,' he added.
The Congress responded with a warning from Tamil Nadu Tourism Minister S Rajesh Kumar, who said he and Higher Education Minister Viswanathan would quit the cabinet if the TVK continued promoting Vijay as a prime ministerial candidate.
'Vijay as PM is not at all a realistic ambition. Though the party won votes in Tamil Nadu, it will be difficult for them to gain any attention in the North, and even in other southern states, despite the popularity of its leader,' Ramaiah said.
Vijay Vs Stalin
The latest war-of-words between Vijay and Stalin began on September 7, when Vijay referred to Stalin's detention under the Maintenance of Internal Security Act (MISA) during the Emergency.
A 'jaw gesture' by Vijay, interpreted as an attack on the DMK over alleged corruption, triggered controversy.
Vijay later clarified that the gesture was not intended to hurt Stalin. The DMK leader responded on social media, accusing Vijay of repeating 'politically motivated lies' spread by people with longstanding grudges against the late M Karunanidhi, the former chief minister.
Stalin acknowledged the historical account of his arrest under MISA, saying he was detained on January 31, 1976, after Karunanidhi protested against the law.
Stalin suffered a jaw injury during his detention, which Vijay was alleged to have mimicked in the assembly.
DMK leader S Regupathy later claimed Stalin had shown Vijay leniency on 'humanitarian grounds' by not naming him as the primary accused in the Karur stampede case.
Poor crowd management at a Vijay rally before the election led to 41 deaths.
'I think this will win some public sentiment in favour of Stalin. However, it is unlikely to have any election implications,' Ramaiah said.
Well, as the political stage is set for yet another political battle, political analysts believe that this may be the first test for the TVK government, a chance for the DMK to rebound, and a battle for relevance for the AIADMK.
Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff
