Southern chief ministers fear population stabilisation could reduce their parliamentary representation and tax devolution benefits.
Key Points
- Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka are staring at fertility levels well below the replacement rate.
- Andhra Pradesh is offering cash incentives, LPG refills and maternity leave to encourage larger families.
- Experts warn shrinking workforces, rising elderly populations and higher child-rearing costs could deepen demographic challenges.
On August 18, Tamil Nadu Minister for Human Resources Management D Sarathkumar announced that the maternity leave for the third child of women government employees will be increased from the existing 12 weeks to 365 days -- effectively encouraging people to have more kids.
At the Southern Zonal Council in Chennai later that week, chief ministers of south Indian states urged the Centre to ensure the region is not punished for its successful implementation of population stabilisation.
'Public policy must not inadvertently penalise states for fulfilling national objectives. I therefore urge the Union government to provide a clear legislative assurance that no state will suffer a reduction in its percentage of representation in Parliament,' Tamil Nadu CM C Joseph Vijay said at the meeting.
Last month, Kerala CM V D Satheesan had told Business Standard that in the the devolution of taxes, South Indian states are being penalised for implementing population control measures.
The statements come at a time when almost all the states are lining up pro-natal policies as a long-term strategy. However, their anxiety is way beyond political statements.
States like Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka are staring at fertility levels well below the replacement rate.
More importantly, a massive dip in workforce, productivity, and a rising elderly population is causing a headache for policymakers down South.
Take the case of Andhra. Early this year, CM N Chandrababu Naidu lined up a draft Population Management Policy aiming to incentivise families to have two or three children.
He later came out with one-time payments of Rs 30,000 for a third child and Rs 40,000 for a fourth. In addition, birth incentives for a second child, free LPG cylinder refills, and a 12-month long maternity leave were part of the larger road map.
Naidu's strategy is to move from 'population control' to 'population care'.
Last year, then Tamil Nadu CM M K Stalin had asked newly married couples to have children earlier, arguing that population size could become important in the context of future Parliamentary delimitation.
The Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam government led by Vijay has extended the incentives -- it will provide a 1-gram gold ring gift to every baby born in a state government hospital.
"In reality, people are not even going for a second child, forget a third... This demographic shift is going to have a huge economic impact going ahead, and already these states are dependent on North India for their workforce," said demography and migration expert S Irudaya Rajan, chair of the International Institute for Migration and Development.
What the numbers say
India's total fertility rate (TFR), a crucial indicator that notified the average number of children a woman would bear over her lifetime, was at 1.9 in 2024 according to the Sample Registration System Statistical Report 2024.
It is at 1.3 in Kerala and Tamil Nadu, 1.4 in Andhra Pradesh, and 1.5 each for Karnataka and Telangana, compared to 2.9 in Bihar, 2.6 in Uttar Pradesh, 2.4 in Madhya Pradesh, 2.3 in Rajasthan, 2.2 in Chhattisgarh, and 2.2 in Jharkhand, the only bigger states above replacement level.
However, there is a section of people who believe that the decline of TFR is not a South-specific concern, with India's TFR falling from 5.2 to 4.5 from 1971-81 and from 3.6 to 1.9 from 1991 to 2024.
Southern states are also feeling the heat when it comes to the general fertility rate (GFR), which is the number of live births per 1,000 women in reproductive age (between 15 and 49 years).
Kerala has the lowest GFR in India, 40.2; neighbours Tamil Nadu and Karnataka have 41.3 and 50.5 each; Andhra has 47.8 and Telangana 51. Bihar is leading this list too with a rate of 98.7, followed by UP at 84.1, Rajasthan at 81.3, and MP at 80.8.
"Another important concern with South Indian states is rise in infertility rate, and also a decline in secondary sterility. People may get their first child, but are unable to conceive a second child... In Kerala, even the Church and other religious institutions are urging people to have more kids. It is easy to reduce population rate as part of a policy, but very difficult to reverse it," Rajan further said.
Better access to education and contraceptives are also highlighted as key factors behind falling birth rates.
Australia had initiated such moves of lining up incentives through policies like 'one child for the country, one for the family', and even offered a 'baby bonus' of around 3,000 Australian dollars for each newborn, but the policy failed, according to Rajan.
"The cost of bringing up a child has increased, a major bottleneck before pro-natal measures," he added.
Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff
