Winnability to be paramount in selection of candidates, followed by clean public image and proven loyalty to the BJP.
The Bharatiya Janata Party is preparing to drop more than two dozen sitting members of the legislative assembly in Bihar, including a few ministers, to neutralise the perceived anti-incumbency sentiment ahead of the November assembly elections.
Sources within the party indicate the leadership has almost finalised a high-risk strategy, modelled on its successful overhaul in the 2022 Gujarat polls, to field new and 'fresh faces' across constituencies.
"The party leadership has made up its mind to play the 'Gujarat Model' in the Bihar assembly elections to deny party tickets to a large number of sitting MLAs, including a few ministers, to minimise the anti-incumbency factor," a senior BJP leader confirmed.
The BJP had denied tickets to 45 out of 108 MLAs in the 2022 Gujarat assembly elections, a strategy that proved successful in returning it to power.
It is now poised to implement this model in Bihar, where anti-incumbency is reportedly visible 'at the ground level'.
According to party insiders, Union Home Minister Amit Shah, the BJP's principal election strategist, is the architect behind the decision to deploy the 'Gujarat Model' in the state.
This strategy was reportedly discussed during the BJP's election committee meeting in Patna on Saturday, October 4, chaired by Union Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan, the election in-charge for the Bihar polls.
Pradhan reportedly informed senior party leaders that the BJP would not compromise on the selection of candidates.
The party has established three key criteria for candidate selection: Jeetnewala Ummidwar (winnable candidate), a clean public image, and proven loyalty to the party.
"The party election committee discussed prospective candidates on Saturday and on Sunday before finalising the list of candidates for the polls," stated state BJP President Dilip Jaiswal, adding that the 'winnability' factor was paramount, as the party is aiming to significantly improve its performance in the state.
While popular MLAs who face no strong anti-incumbency may receive another chance, those who have "failed to perform and are facing resentment among people" are likely to be replaced.
The BJP has been in power in Bihar alongside Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal-United since 2005 (with one four-and-a-half-year break).
"The BJP will deny party tickets to a few ministers and many sitting MLAs. The party has identified two dozen sitting MLAs who will be denied tickets this time, and new faces would replace them to contest polls to face anti-incumbency," another senior party leader disclosed.
MLAs who may be dropped include Bhagirathi Devi, Rashmi Verma, Gyanendra Singh Gyanu, Amrendra Pratap Singh, Mishri Lal Yadav, C N Gupta, Ramnarayan Mandal, Raghvendra Pratap Singh, Nand Kishore Yadav and Vinay Bihari.
"Some of them would be denied tickets on the age above 70 years, others will face denial of tickets on winnability factor, loyalty, unpopularity, poor performance and negative image," a BJP leader said.
Internal surveys conducted by the party and the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh revealed that more than 30 BJP MLAs are unpopular, with people expressing unhappiness and anger over their conduct and work.
"Resentment among the people is against them," a source said, terming the move a "political compulsion" as the party aims to surpass its 2020 tally of 74 seats.
The BJP is actively working on strategies to emerge as the single-largest party in the 243-member assembly.
In the last assembly polls in 2020, the BJP won 74 assembly seats, one less than the Rashtriya Janata Dal that emerged as the single largest party with 75 seats.
Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff