US reoccupation would need large troop deployments, break the Doha Agreement, and strain relations with Pakistan, Russia and Iran.
US President Donald Trump has reignited debate over the Bagram air base, Afghanistan's most strategic military facility.
Speaking alongside UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer during a State visit last week, Trump said the US is 'trying to get it back', which was abandoned during the withdrawal of the US troops from Afghanistan in 2021.
'We gave it to them for nothing. We want that base back', NBC News quoted Trump as saying.
Later, in a post on Truth Social, Trump threatened 'BAD THINGS' for Afghanistan if the Taliban-led government fails to comply.
Why Bagram matters to the US
Located 60 km north of Kabul, Bagram was the largest US installation in Afghanistan and a hub for counterinsurgency operations.
At its peak in 2012, more than 100,000 American troops passed through. Its 11,800 foot runway can handle bombers and heavy cargo planes, which Trump called 'one of the most powerful bases in the world'.
Why the US wants it back
Trump's sharpest argument lies in geography. 'It's an hour away from where China makes its nuclear weapons,' he said.
A report by the Orion Policy Institute notes that Bagram is less than 1,500 miles from China's Hami missile field in Xinjiang and under 500 miles from the Afghan-Xinjiang border.
The Pentagon estimates Beijing's arsenal already exceeds 600 operational warheads and may pass 1,000 by 2030.
China's foreign ministry has rejected Trump's remarks, warning that 'stirring up tension' would not be welcomed.
Bagram was also pivotal for US strikes against ISIS-K, al-Qaeda and the Pakistani Taliban.
In 2025, UN officials in 2025 warned ISIS-K remains 'one of the most dangerous branches"' active in Afghanistan, Iran and Russia.
Al-Qaeda has since added nine training camps in Afghanistan, while the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan staged over 600 attacks from Afghan soil in the second half of 2024, according to a report by the UN Security Council.
Trump argues regaining Bagram is essential to restore an American foothold.
What do the Taliban say?
Taliban officials flatly rejected Trump's idea.
'Afghanistan is fully independent, governed by its own people, and not dependent on any foreign power,' Taliban's chief of staff of the armed forces Fasihuddin Fitrat said on Sunday at an event in Kabul, reported Bloomberg.
'We do not fear any bully or aggressor.'
Despite releasing Western detainees recently, the Taliban has shown no readiness to allow foreign forces back.
What do analysts say
Experts caution that retaking Bagram is unlikely. Bill Roggio of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies warned the Taliban and China would resist any US return, according to Long War Journal.
However, Trump has declined to give a direct answer about sending troops to retake the base.
'We won't talk about that,' he told reporters on Saturday, reported Al Jazeera.
Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff
