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The 2018 Madhya Pradesh election sentiment meter

Last updated on: November 22, 2018 11:29 IST

Madhya Pradesh will vote in a single phase election on November 28 to elect a new legislative assembly. The tenure of the current assembly is slated to end on January 7, 2019.

Counting of votes will happen on December 11 along with Chhattisgarh, Mizoram, Rajasthan and Telangana.

After 15 years in power, the Bharatiya Janata Party is facing significant anti-incumbency. The poll battle is expected to be a one-on-one contest between BJP and the Congress, albeit a possible bump courtesy Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party.

 

Rediff Labs analysed the 2013 assembly election results to develop a Sentiment Meter for the 2018 electoral battle in Madhya Pradesh.

A mathematical model is used to calculate how seat distribution will be altered as sentiment/percentage of votes towards a contesting political party changes.

Based on the change, each constituency is marked with the winning party. A swing represents that the victory margin is close to the runner-up party.

Move the pointer on the Sentiment Meter (depending on who you think will get more votes) towards the political parties to see how the outcome is likely to change.

The below graph is based only on 2013 assembly elections data.

For more data driven journalism, check out Rediff Labs.

Rediff Labs