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Rediff.com  » News » Most exit polls failed to get 5-state polls right

Most exit polls failed to get 5-state polls right

December 12, 2018 20:05 IST

Most exit polls failed to predict the massive mandate that the Congress got in Chhattisgarh, but got their forecast of a tight finish in neighbouring Madhya Pradesh right.

IMAGE: A Congress supporter lays down crackers to celebrate the party's performance in the assembly elections of Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh. Photograph: PTI Photo

In Rajasthan and Telangana, the exit polls got the winner right but failed to gauge the level of the victory margins for the assembly elections for which the votes were counted on Tuesday.

They predicted a clear win for the Congress in Rajasthan, but when the results were out, the party could not achieve the magic figure on its own, getting 99 of 199 seats, just shy of the majority mark.

In Telangana, it was a landslide victory for the Telangana Rashtriya Samiti, which got 88 of the 119 constituencies, leaving the Congress trailing far behind with 19.

In the northeastern state of Mizoram, where the Congress was ousted from power, the regional Mizo National Front performed much better than the exit poll prediction, bagging 26 of 40 seats.

 

In Madhya Pradesh -- where the results went down to the wire with the Congress getting 114 seats, just two short of a simple majority in the 230-member assembly, and the BJP 109 -- ABP News predicted a clear defeat for the BJP (94 seats) and victory for the Congress (126).

While Republic TV-Jan Ki Baat gave 108-128 seats to the BJP and 95-115 to the Congress, India Today-Axis said the saffron party could win 102-120 seats as against 104-122 for the Congress.

The Times Now-CNX exit poll predicted a majority for the BJP in MP with 126 seats and gave the Congress a tally of 89 seats.

In Chhattisgarh, the BJP was reduced to 15 seats while the Congress bagged 68 seats in the 90-member assembly seat.

The Ajit Jogi-led Janta Congress Chhattisgarh and the BSP alliance together bagged seven seats.

Quite in contrast to the declared results, the ABP and the Times Now-CNX exit polls predicted victory for the BJP. Though India Today-Axis said the Congress would triumph, it did not get its numbers right.

Times Now-CNX gave a simple majority to the BJP in Chhattisgarh, saying it may win 46 seats while the opposition Congress may bag 35 seats. ABP News said the BJP may get up to 52 seats against 35 of the Congress.

The India Today-Axis predicted that the Congress would end Chief Minister Raman Singh's 15-year reign by winning anywhere between 55-65 seats. The BJP, it said, may be reduced to 21-31 seats.

All the exit polls said the alliance of former chief minister Ajit Jogi's Janta Congress Chhattisgarh (Jogi) and the BSP may win between three and eight seats, which may help him to emerge as a king-maker in the event of a hung house. This was fairly accurate with the BSP getting two seats and the JCC five

In Rajasthan, India Today-Axis said the opposition party may win 119-141 out of 199 seats for which elections were held. The BJP, it added, may win 55-72 seats.

Times Now-CNX forecast 105 seats for the Congress and 85 for the BJP.

ABP News also predicted a victory for the Congress, saying it may bag 101 seats while the BJP may end up with 83 and others with 15 seats.

Republic TV-Jan Ki Baat forecast a tighter race between the two parties. It gave the Congress and the BJP 81-101 and 83-103 seats respectively.

In Mizoram, almost all exit polls predicted a win for the MNF and defeat of the Congress but none could assess the margins of defeat and victory.

In Telangana as well, most exit polls said TRS would win without getting being able to make an assessment of the margins.

Republic TV forecast 50-65 for the TRS and Times Now gave it 66 seats.

TV9 Telugu was closer with a 75-85 tally for the TRS but India Today was the most accurate, forecasting 75-91.

In Mizoram, where the Congress has been in power for two consecutive terms, Times Now-CNX said the ruling party may get 16 seats. It predicted 18 seats for Mizo National Front in the 40-member assembly.

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