The country will witness “warmer than normal temperature” this summer with heat wave like conditions likely over Central and northwest parts of India.
According to the summer forecast issued by the India Meteorological Department, the first of its kind, for April to June, the seasonal temperature would be above normal by more than one degree Celsius over Northwest India.
There is also a high probability of 76 per cent of maximum temperatures in the core Heat Wave zone during the 2016 hot weather season to be above normal.
Core HW zone covers states of Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Delhi, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Odisha and Telangana and met sub-divisions of Marathwada, Vidharbha, Madhya Maharashtra and coastal Andhra Pradesh.
“This in turn suggests high probability of moderate and severe heat wave conditions in core HW zone during the hot weather season,” the IMD said.
IMD has also attributed the El-Nino to the above normal temperature. The year 2015 was the warmest year ever recorded since 1901. The country has also witnessed warm January and February, making it the warmest winter.
“The strong El Nino conditions over the Pacific Ocean that started in 2015 are still continuing. However, the latest forecasts indicate that El Nino conditions are likely to weaken further and reach weaker El Nino conditions during the 2016 hot weather season.
“It has been observed that during the hot weather seasons followed by El Nino years (for example: 1973, 1995, 1998, 2003, 2010, etc. followed by the El Nino years of 1972, 1994, 1997, 2002 and 2009), above normal temperatures including moderate to severe heat wave conditions were experienced in most parts of India,” the IMD said.
The weathermen have also attributed the increasing trend of greenhouse gases due to “anthropogenic activity”. The forecast indicates that during the 2016 hot weather season, temperatures (mean, maximum and minimum) in all the 36 sub-divisions of IMD are likely to be “above normal”.
All the temperatures (maximum, minimum and mean) of most of the subdivisions from northwest India, Kerala from southIndia and Vidharbha from Central India are likely to be above normal or equal to one degree Celsius.
“The forecast indicates that during the 2016 hot weather season, temperatures (mean, maximum and minimum) in all the sub-divisions are likely to be above normal. All the temperatures (maximum, minimum and mean) of most of the subdivisions from northwest India, Kerala from south India and Vidharbha from Central India are likely to be above normal by or equal to 1 degree Celsius.
“The season averaged maximum temperatures of coastal Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Assam and Meghalaya, sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim Nagaland, Manipur Mizoram, & Tripur, and Assam & Meghalaya are likely to be warmer than normal by less than 0.5 degree Celsius and that of the remaining subdivisions are likely to warmer than normal by 0.5 to 1 degree Celsius,” the IMD said in the forecast.
Photograph: Jitendra Prakash/Reuters