El Nino will not affect monsoon, says meteorologist
The weather phenomenon 'El Nino' will not
affect the Indian monsoon much as predicted by some Western meteorologists, says Ranjan Ratnakar Kelkar, additional director-general
of the India Meteorogical Department.
Dr Kelkar said the monsoon will be normal
this year with around 92 per cent (plus or minus four per cent
model error) of the all-India average rainfall.
He said Indian weathermen knew about the occurrence of the El Nino,
that is, warm sea surface temperature over central and equatorial eastern
Pacific off the South American coast, as far back as in March,
and this unfavourable trend had been taken into consideration
while making predictions about rainfall this year.
Although El Nino had affected Indian summer monsoon rainfall in
some years in the past, there is no clear one-to-one correspondence
between the two, he said, adding that there were instances when
monsoon rainfall was excess or normal in El Nino years as in 1992,
1976, 1957, and 1953. Also, there many years when rainfall was
deficient even when there were no El Nino as in 1979, 1974, 1966.
He said the El Nino (a Spanish word meaning 'Birth of Child
Christ', as it usually occurs during Christmas time), is one of
the 16 parameters used by the department for its weather forecast
model. It is also a slowly changing phenomenon whose progress is
monitored every month.
Dr Kelkar said the onset of monsoon was delayed in Kerala by
eight days as predicted by his department. Although delayed, it was
progressing well and has covered three-fourths of the country, that
is, the entire peninsula, northeastern states, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar,
Uttar Pradesh, and the Himalayan belt, and will hit Delhi later this week.
About the weather changes experienced by Delhi and nearby
regions, the additional director general said it was not due to any
climatic change but because of some yearly variation occuring on
account of the interaction between the tropical and extra-tropical
weather currents to which the capital was vulnerable since being
situated between the two regions.
He said the weather in tropical regions is generally hot and humid
while that in temperate region is cold and dry and weather gets
affected depending on the strength at which the weather currents
interact. The monsoons were delayed this year as the extra-tropical
currents hovered over the country for a longer period delaying the
tropical phenomenon monsoon, he said.
The pre-monsoon showers that gave the much-needed relief to the
people of Delhi was caused because of the moisture that goes
ahead of the northern limits of monsoon and get trapped into
western disturbance, Kelkar said.
When asked whether the greenhouse effect was affecting the climate
of the country, Kelkar said the order of magnitude of these
effects were too small to give concrete proof. "The temperature
change of half-a-degree in 100 years -- caused by global warming --
is not strong to establish the effect it has on the life of city-dwellers," he added.
The meterologist was satisfied by the crisis
warning machinery in the country. He said because of effective
weather prediction system, the death toll in cyclones which some times earlier ran into hundreds of thousands, has come down to thousands.
He said India was one of the few developing countries which has
its own weather satellites and was now able to even export weather
data to other nations through the World Meteorological Organisation.
EXTERNAL LINKS:
The El Nino
El Nino Working Group
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