'Vijay is badly politically wounded.'
"If he wishes to survive in politics Vijay needs an alliance. After the Karur tragedy if he goes alone, he will sink," Dr Sumanth Raman, a keen observer of Tamil Nadu politics for many years, tells Rediff Senior Contributor A Ganesh Nadar.
Since the launch of his party Vijay has had an overwhelming response at all his rallies. Was this bothering other political parties in Tamil Nadu?
Definitely! The huge crowds he was attracting was a matter of concern for all political parties particularly the DMK (Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam) as he identified it as his main enemy.
How come such a huge tragedy happened at Vijay's Karur rally?
From the beginning his rallies have been badly organised. The question was not if it would l happen, but when it would happen. In the past we have heard of scuffles at his rallies. Violating regulations, not listening to local authorities or the police.
Nobody told Vijay that you have to organise better. They want to show crowds with drones shooting overhead. It was a tragedy waiting to happen.
Though the FIR does not mention his name, it is alleged that he arrived late so that the crowd would build up. Could this be true? All his meetings have seen mammoth crowds.
He arrived late. It is a matter of fact. The Namakkal meeting the same day was supposed to be at 8.45 am. He left Chennai at 8.45 am.
Justice Aruna Jagadeesan had probed the Tuticorin police firing and severely indicted the police in her report, but nothing happened after that. Will it be any different with the commission of inquiry for the Karur stampede?
Don't say nothing happened! They promoted three or four police officers after that. One was even allowed to retire honourably.
Now the government has held a press conference to state clearly that there was no lapse on its part. According to them Vijay is a habitual offender.
What will the judge give us in a report?
Rahul Gandhi is said to have called Vijay to offer condolences on the death of his supporters. Possible that in the future he might invite Vijay into the INDIA bloc, at least for the Lok Sabha elections if not for the assembly elections?
Vijay has stated that the DMK is his political enemy so he cannot join INDIA. Rahul spoke only to Vijay and not to the victims.
It is an attempted pressure tactic against the DMK.
Vijay has offered Rs 20 lakh compensation for the dead and Rs 2 lakh for the injured. Will this assuage his supporters?
Some of them are crazy fans who always support him. The public will be upset that he didn't visit the injured or met with the families of those who died. He did not spend time with them.
When he resumes his rallies again, what are the precautions he will have to take?
In the video that he released after the incident he didn't say sorry. People come to see him. Morally he should say sorry. He is badly politically wounded. Projecting himself as the CM candidate is no longer viable.
There is a lot of criticism about the bouncers at his rallies to protect him. Doesn't it make for bad optics for a politician?
He should have the police providing him security or his party men, not bouncers. I had tweeted a year ago that you cannot have bouncers for a politician.
He has inept advisors. He is also inaccessible to his own people.
Leaders from various political parties have visited the injured in Karur. Vijay has avoided doing so saying that it will again cause overcrowding. Will the public accept this argument?
The public will not. You have to be with the people in times of grief, that is the good sign of a true leader. Both the AIADMK and DMK leaders are always with the people.
Vijay could have gone the next day or after two days. The police could have stopped him on the way. That would have given him more mileage.
So far he has avoided talking about alliances but for how long can he put off this question?
It is inevitable now. His political survival is possible only in an alliance. Alone he will sink badly.
What do you think are the options available to him now?
His only option is the AIADMK. Logically he has to go with the AIADMK to defeat the DMK. If he wants to he can put up candidates against the BJP.
This would be a winning combination: AIADMK+TVK+PMK minus the NDA.
Vijay has gone ahead where Rajnikanth withdrew from politics. What do you think is Vijay's future in Tamil Nadu politics, especially after Karur?
It all depends on his actions. He has a huge fan base. There are serious questions about his leadership ability after the Karur incident.
So if he comes and forms an alliance as part of a large anti-DMK front he can succeed. Alone he will sink.
The NDA sent a phalanx of leaders led by Hema Malini to Karur. What is the real motive behind this?
Their motive is to embarrass the DMK state government. (To say) Both Vijay and the DMK government are answerable (for the stampede).
How much of the crowds at Vijay's rallies will actually vote for him, do you think?
The crowds that have come are below 35, 40 years old. It is a youth crowd. They climb atop trees and shops. This crowd will vote for him.
The people who didn't come to the meetings, their vote is what is important. Not too many will vote for him after the Karur incident.
Vijay's video message on Tuesday has a huge Kollywood hangover, the lines seem like dialogues from his film Sarkar. Is he unable to separate the two personas -- filmstar and politician?
Earlier his speeches were all filmi. The Namakkal speech was better. Somebody must have told him to change it. His latest video was also filmi. It was not spontaneous.