'If Nitish Kumar were to depart from this alliance, it would signal substantial instability in central government politics.'
Despite the National Democratic Alliance's landslide victory in Bihar that has reduced the Mahagathbandhan to a mere 30-32 seats in the 243-member assembly, the Bharatiya Janata Party may not be able to claim the chief minister's post even if it emerges as the largest party.
Professor D M Diwakar warns that Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah are unlikely to risk upsetting Nitish Kumar's applecart, given the fragile arithmetic supporting the BJP-led government at the Centre.
With the BJP holding only 240 MPs in the Lok Sabha and relying on 12 JD-U MPs and 15 from the Telugu Desam Party for a majority, any instability in Bihar could trigger seismic waves in national politics.
While a BJP state president provocatively declared his party would claim the chief ministership, notably neither Modi nor Shah echoed this sentiment during the campaign.
Professor Diwakar, Director, Development Research Institute in Madhubani, in the concluding part of his interview with Prasanna D Zore/Rediff credits the stunning outcome entirely to Nitish Kumar's personal credibility -- a leader who has remained corruption-free despite 20 years in power -- rather than the BJP's organisational strength in Bihar.
Do you anticipate that Bihar will see a BJP chief minister if the BJP emerges as the largest single party?
The earlier pronouncement this year by Prime Minister Modi and the BJP's national leadership was Constitutionally problematic, and when Nitish Kumar expressed displeasure with that approach, he began demonstrating independence in electoral politics and other matters vis-a-vis the BJP.
He declined to share platforms at numerous venues where Prime Minister Modi was scheduled to appear. Ultimately, at one particular meeting, Nitish Kumar refused to attend altogether, and only his cutout was displayed as a symbolic representation.
Indeed, even during the manifesto release, Nitish Kumar chose not to speak. He was allocated merely a few seconds. That constituted another significant point of contention.
Subsequently, when the BJP leadership recognised after the first phase of polling that matters were not proceeding favourably, the BJP state president issued a provocative statement declaring that a BJP leader would become chief minister. However, I observed that Union Home Minister Amit Shah and Prime Minister Modi refrained from making any such pronouncement.
That is precisely my question -- do you perceive a substantial possibility of a BJP chief minister?
There exists that possibility, certainly. Now that the Mahagathbandhan has been reduced to such insignificant numbers that they cannot join hands with Nitish Kumar for form a government, there is every possibility that Nitish Kumar will not retain the chief ministership.
But then Nitish Kumar has always been a wily and unpredictable character in Bihari politics and one can never know.
Do you still believe Nitish Kumar could engineer a political realignment?
He retains that capability, but only if he can independently form a government. He would execute such a manoeuvre only if the arithmetic permits.
However, reports from Bihar suggest that Nitish Kumar is unwell...
No, absolutely not. This narrative was deliberately constructed. This narrative was manufactured to suggest that Nitish Kumar had become politically irrelevant.
Yet ultimately, the BJP had to acknowledge that without Nitish Kumar, they could not contest this election successfully. Therefore, they were compelled to designate Nitish Kumar as the face of the electoral campaign initially, and subsequently had to declare him as the chief ministerial candidate.
So even if the BJP emerges as the largest single party, it will be Nitish Kumar as chief minister, given the imperatives you have just articulated?
That depends. If Nitish Kumar can identify an alternative arrangement that allows him to achieve the magic number -- that is, 122 seats (in the 243-member assembly) -- independently, he will not permit the BJP to assume power.
If the arithmetic allows for such a scenario, then there will not be a BJP chief minister?
Precisely. Consider that during the previous government formation, following his return to the NDA, Nitish Kumar initially declined to become chief minister, and the BJP in fact reiterated that Nitish Kumar would be chief minister despite the BJP possessing greater numerical strength (in 2020).
Modi may not so casually risk upsetting the Nitish Kumar applecart in Bihar because there is another consideration: If Nitish Kumar were to depart from this alliance, it would signal substantial instability in central government politics (12 JD-U MPs along with 15 from the TDP support the BJP-led Modi government; the BJP has only 240 MPs in the Lok Sabha, short of the 272 majority).
The BJP will not countenance such a risk. Despite potentially emerging as the largest party, they will endeavour to ensure that national political equations remain undisturbed. The BJP may well take that factor into consideration.
The Opposition has already begun alleging electoral malpractice as the reason for their rout. They are attributing these results to electronic voting machine tampering and the revision of electoral rolls just before the elections. How do you assess that charge?
That remains genuinely mysterious because I did not observe any wave on the ground that would justify the NDA achieving this magnitude of electoral victory.
What was your assessment at the conclusion of campaigning?
My assessment was that the Mahagathbandhan would form the government. That was my evaluation following the second phase of polling. This was not merely my individual assessment; numerous political analysts and observers in this region maintained that nothing could prevent the Mahagathbandhan from assuming power this time.
However, given the manner in which results are now emerging through the counting process, it is simply incomprehensible.
When was the previous occasion that Bihar witnessed such results, where the Opposition has been decimated?
I do not believe Bihar has ever previously experienced a situation where the Opposition has been so comprehensively obliterated.
Would you credit Mr Nitish Kumar and the BJP's leadership for this extraordinary outcome?
Nitish Kumar, yes. The BJP, no.
Why do you distinguish between them? Why credit Nitish Kumar but not the BJP?
Consider that even after twenty years of continuous governance, Nitish Kumar has never personally been implicated in any corruption allegation. This is no small achievement.
To remain actively engaged in politics as chief minister for two decades and yet remain free from any substantive allegation of corruption represents a remarkable accomplishment, and that credit belongs entirely to Nitish Kumar. It is universally acknowledged; no one can dispute this fact.
Secondly, there exists no significant leadership within the BJP in Bihar who commands substantial popular appeal. There is no leader of Nitish Kumar's stature, or even half his stature, within the state BJP.
I attribute this again to Nitish Kumar's strategic political acumen: He remained in power, he maintained his alliance with the BJP, but he never permitted the BJP to cultivate leadership of such calibre that could potentially replace him.
At present, as the BJP's numbers increase, if Nitish Kumar does not retain the option of achieving the magic number independently, he may be compelled to yield, and someone else from the BJP may assume leadership.
Do you consider these elections to have been free and fair?
Based on my ground-level observations, when I cast my own vote, I did not observe anything irregular. However, when I examine these results, I cannot state with certainty that they are entirely fair and representative of the sentiment I witnessed during my extensive field visits.