'Next 20 Years Are Very Critical For India'

'... to see that young people are gainfully employed. After that, it will become very difficult as we will start ageing much more rapidly.'
'We have a huge proportion of Gen Z. After 2030, every year, we will start seeing a gradual shift towards a slightly older society.'

It was in 2018 that researchers led by Amit Basole, Associate Professor of economics at the School of Liberal Studies at the Azim Premji University, conducted its first study on jobs and unemployment in India.

The report was titled The State of Working India.

Subsequently they did studies in 2019, 2012, 2023 and 2026.

The lead author of the State of Working India 2026 report was Rosa Abraham. Professor Amit Basole is the contributing author.

The latest report says that 'young graduates in India have always been disproportionately unemployed. But their number has grown terrifically in recent years, along with the debt their families owe for their educations.'

"For many years, India was looked at as a very, very young country. We were adding a lot more young people than people ageing and dying. In the next 10-20 years we will start ageing, which is expected, but that doesn't mean we are suddenly going to become an old country," Professor Basole tells Rediff's Shobha Warrier in the concluding segment of the interview.

• Part 1 Of The Interview: 'Young People Feel Uncertainty Because Of The Huge Disruption In The Job Market'

As a person who is part of the education system, what kind of major reforms do you want?

Other than what we have discussed earlier, one point I want to make is, we have always had this problem that the number of seats for any kind of professional degree, is very small compared to the number of qualified aspirants.

We see that young people do very well, still they don't get good seats. It means we have not adequately scaled up the number of educational opportunities.

It has also been a problem in finding good teachers, paying them well, and building up the facilities.

All of this requires a lot of resources.

Then, we have had a huge private explosion, but it has not guaranteed quality.

Not only are they poor in quality but they charge much more than the public schools and colleges.

The result is, students who went to study in the private institutions have caught in a double bind; they have a degree that is not very valuable, and they are under debt.

We know that without good public quality education at any level, not just colleges but even in schools, a country cannot prosper.

If you look at my generation, only those who have come from Kerala have gone to public schools and colleges. Many of us have studied in private schools and colleges paying high fees.

It is important to have good quality public educational institutions with adequate number of seats, so that students will not have this tremendous anxiety, that if I'm not in the top 1%, I have nothing. This is a very damaging kind of mentality.

We should have an education system that let students think that medicine and engineering are not the only future for them.

That takes us to the topic of demographic dividend which everybody is talking about. Your report says it will start declining by 2030. That is just four years away.
Does that mean we are going to miss the demographic bus? Is it going to be a demographic nightmare for India?

For many years, India was looked at as a very, very young country. We were adding a lot more young people than people ageing and dying.

In the next 10-20 years we will start ageing, which is expected, but that doesn't mean we are suddenly going to become an old country.

It will take about two decades for India's average age to be in the 40s and 50s.

But we do have a time window, but that time window is not very long.

It would be about roughly 20 years. So, the next 20 years are going to be very critical to see that the young people are gainfully employed.

After that, it will become very difficult as we will start ageing much more rapidly.

And the birth rate is also coming down. With the birth rate coming down, and older people dying more, we will start seeing a population decline with more ageing population than young.

But that's in the future. I still think the opportunity is not lost. Provided we take some coordinated bold actions in the next decade or two.

Your report says the demographic dividend will start declining from 2030.

What happens in 2030 is we reach that point when the youth population is no longer increasing.

In fact, the youngest age group in India has already started declining in proportionate terms, like as a percentage of the population.

We have a huge proportion of Gen Z, what we call the 15-to-29-year age group right now.

After 2030, every year, we will start seeing a gradual shift towards a slightly older society.

It will not happen suddenly. But we should think of the steps to be taken to take advantage of the time we have.

IMAGE: Professor Amit Basole

Europe became rich before it became old. When China's demographic dividend ended in 2015, they said they did not become rich like the Europeans.
So, will India become old before it becomes -- I don't want to use the word rich -- at least a certain level of prosperity?

You are right, we should not think about becoming rich. But we can definitely think of increasing our per capita income.

In dollar terms, we are let's say, around $2,500 to $3,000 per year. The World Bank classification for an upper middle-income country is $8,000, $10,000.

It means we have to double and double again our per capita income to be a middle-income country.

For that, we have to have 8% to 9% of real GDP growth consistently for about 10, 20 years or so.

If we are able to achieve that, we can be a comfortable middle-income country.

We have seen 8% growth before, and we know it is do-able. But our problem was sustaining it. It comes for 2-3 years, and then it goes away. So, if we sustain our growth like China did for about 20 years, we can also grow steadily.

It is not an impossible task.

If we can achieve that, we have a real chance of at least becoming a middle-income country before we become old.

Aiming to be a developed country is a bit too much as it would require very, very high rates of growth.

Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff