'BJP Feels They Can Get Away With Anything'

'I remember that Indira Gandhi was virtually worshipped as a goddess. The kind of power wielded by Indira Gandhi in the early 1970s was much more than what Modi does today, but in just three years down the line Indira Gandhi faced defeat.'
'So you cannot take people's sentiments for granted. That is a lesson that the BJP should learn.'

"The core constituency of the BJP believed that losing one seat is not going to make any difference when the BJP is already in power, but they wanted to teach a lesson to the leadership that they cannot take party workers for granted," says Professor Abdul Qadir, a Gaya-based political commentator on Bihar politics.

"This election is not a barometer of Bihar's overall political temperature. It could well turn out to be a flash in the pan. But it has certainly opened up new political avenues," Professor Qadir tells Rediff's Archana Masih discussing Prashant Kishor storming the BJP's traditional bastion in Bankipur.

Why did the BJP's organisational network, caste combinations, rallies and campaign fail in Bankipur? Why did the party's traditional base reject the party?

It is a vote against the state BJP leadership than a vote for Prashant Kishor.

Bihar is a caste-driven state. Politics continues to revolve around caste.

For more than three decades, the upper castes have been out of power and they are the core supporters of the BJP.

When Nitish Kumar was virtually given the marching orders, there was a general perception among the upper caste that we have been loyal to the BJP for years and it is time the leadership appointed an upper caste or at least someone from the backward classes whose politics is less backward-centric.

The upper castes are unable to accept Samrat Chaudhary for several reasons.

• Samrat was in the RJD and has been groomed in RJD politics.
• His style of functioning resembles the RJD rather than the BJP.
• There is a perception that he is not favourably inclined towards the upper castes and appears to be building a caste constituency of his own.

BJP has all along projected itself as a party with a difference. That has been its USP. The BJP has been criticising Lalu's son Tejaswi Yadav for being a Class 9 dropout in their campaigns. But by all accounts, Samrat Chaudhary's academic credentials are highly questionable. He has been making contradictory statements in his affidavits.

Prashant Kishor made a frontal attack on Samrat Chaudhary concerning his academic qualifications and the claims of his PhD from a university in California.

That issue did not go down well with many people.

The upper castes started to believe that they had the opportunity to have say in power -- if not in the driving seats, but at least for some backseat driving.

There was also the perception that Samrat Chaudhary started cultivating anti-upper caste lobbies and maintained cordial relations with leaders across party lines, including some in the RJD.

Also, senior BJP leader reportedly remarked that anyone with a BJP symbol -- even a dog or a cat -- could win. Such statements did not sit well with the people.

The core constituency of the BJP believed that losing one seat is not going to make any difference when the BJP is already in power, but they wanted to teach a lesson to the leadership that they cannot take the party workers for granted.

Moreover, in the recent police action during the Gen Z protest, Bihar is the only state where an AK-47 was used against the protestors.

Young people were already angry over unemployment, repeated examination irregularities and delayed recruitment. They also felt the state's response was excessively harsh.

I see this result more as a rejection of Samrat Chaudhary and his politics than an approval of Prashant Kishor.

You spoke about Gen Z. What is the level of young people's disenchantment with the BJP? How did that reflect in this result?

Compared to other states, Bihari youth are more disadvantaged. They don't have jobs, many are forced to migrate to states for work.

That frustration has existed, but was not properly channelised. At the same time, Bihar's youth are not immune to caste considerations. So the situation remains quite complex.

I would not treat this election as a barometer of Bihar's overall political temperature. It could well turn out to be a flash in the pan. But it has certainly opened up new political avenues.

What impact will Prashant Kishor's electoral entry have on the political landscape?

He has got an incremental value in Bihar politics. He now has visibility and credibility. If he has to make an impression in Bihar politics and remain relevant over the long term, he cannot sustain himself politically on his own.

Compared to other states, ideological commitment counts in Bihar.

It has long been the centre of Mandal politics, and now a significant section has switched over to the Mandir brand. Ideology continues to play an important role.

Prashant Kishor's biggest disadvantage is that his ideological position remains unclear. He raises issues, but it is difficult to place him on the political spectrum. Is he centrist, centre-left or centre-right? For long-term political survival, your ideological position needs to be clear.

Moreover, you cannot wish away caste from Bihar politics. He is a Brahmin and comes from an upper-caste background. People may have voted against the BJP this time, but general elections are a different ball game.

Eventually, he will have to align with other political forces. Joining hands with the RJD appears unlikely, particularly when that party itself seems to be in decline.

Interestingly, Muslims voted overwhelmingly for Prashant Kishor in this election. If he wants to retain that support, aligning with the BJP would be difficult.

That leaves the Congress and the Left.

There is also a difference between people knowing you and consistently voting for you.

Then the only option for Prashant Kishor will be to have some sort of adjustment, understanding, alliance with the Congress and the Left forces. He cannot survive for long in Bihar politics on his own.

There was a time a few years ago when there was talk of him joining the Congress. But I am told that the conditions put by Prashant Kishor were not acceptable to the Congress. Things have changed now. Both may now realise that they need each other.

The Left too is a very important factor in Bihar politics. You cannot just wish it away. Even at the worst of times, they had support base in every constituency.

What warning does this result have for the RJD?

The electorate has delivered a warning both to the BJP and RJD -- to the ruling party and the Opposition.

One reason why the Muslims drifted away from RJD is that there is a feeling that Tejaswi Yadav is politically compromised after losing the elections.

Unlike his father, he is not a fighter. He cannot withstand pressure for long. So there is an impression, right or wrong, that he has somehow bought peace with the BJP leadership.

Lalu Yadav emerged from grassroots politics and built his career through political struggle. Tejaswi, on the other hand, was born into politics. Many people feel he cannot match his father's resilience.

Politics demands the ability to endure pressure and fight difficult circumstances. Without that, it becomes very difficult to sustain a long political career.

Does this result also reflect fatigue with the established political parties?

In Bihar, caste equations matter more than party names.

If Prashant Kishor and the Congress eventually join hands, they could attempt to revive the old Congress social coalition of upper castes, Muslims and Dalits.

Historically, the Congress ruled Bihar with the support of these three groups. After the Bhagalpur riots, Muslims drifted away. Upper castes gradually shifted to the BJP, partly because they felt the Congress was not effectively challenging Lalu Prasad. Dalit support fragmented among the RJD, BJP and the Left.

If some version of that old coalition -- upper castes, Muslims and Dalits -- can be rebuilt, it could once again become a formidable political force in Bihar.

What next for the BJP?

The BJP will have to do serious introspection. They have become obsessed with power and feel they can get away with anything.

I was a student in the early 1970s and distinctly remember that Indira Gandhi was virtually worshipped as a goddess. The kind of power wielded by Indira Gandhi in the early 1970s was much more than what Modi does today, but in just three years down the line Indira Gandhi faced defeat.

So you cannot take people's sentiments for granted. That is a lesson that the BJP should learn. The parliamentary elections are still three years away, the assembly election is four years away -- it will depend on the corrective measures taken by the BJP.

There is also a natural fatigue that develops after a party has been in power for a long time. At some stage, people begin to seek change.

Prashant Kishor is a good speaker and presents his arguments convincingly. How do you see the road ahead for him as MLA?

Things have changed for MLAs. State assemblies don't have regular sessions. The recent monsoon session barely lasted five days. Parliamentary democracy has taken a beating that way because Parliament and most state assemblies meet for very brief periods.

Moreover, the presiding officers have a lot of powers, and Prashant Kishor is the lone representative of his party in the assembly.

Parties get to speak on the basis of their legislative strength. Inside the assembly, he may raise questions during question hours, but as a speaker or orator, his skills are not likely to be used that much.

But the MLA tag will ensure that he is heard inside and outside the assembly too -- and that is more important.

Winning this election through popular vote has brought him credibility.

I still believe -- and many others do as well -- that this was primarily a negative vote against the BJP's state leadership rather than a positive vote for Prashant Kishor.

Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff