'This will be a close election. At least now, it appears that the NDA has an edge.'
Political Researcher Sarthak Bagchi has been travelling in Bihar, first during the Voter Adhikari Yatra in July-August and then in the run-up to the first phase of polling on November 6.
He visited around 12 districts of the state to understand the momentum on the ground and the finer points of elections 2025.
Dr Bagchi is an Ahmedabad-based political analyst who also visited the state during the 2015 election for his PhD fieldwork.
Once again, back in Bihar, he tells Rediff's Archana Masih about the visible changes in the state, why the Mahagathbandhan's 'Voter Adhikar Yatra' failed to polarise voters and the reasons for the absence of an anti-Nitish Kumar mood on the ground.
What have your recent travels to research the Bihar elections revealed? What are the big changes that you notice?
Infrastructure growth is a visible change. I noticed increased road connectivity and street lights even in villages. The markets showed a lot of activity with many youth setting up shops in the villages.
I have been in the Mithilanchal region which is more prosperous compared to Bhojpur or Seemanchal. I noticed these changes in this region.
What are your takeaways from the ground? The mahaul or the mood of the voter?
During the Congress-led Voter Adhikar Yatra in Bihar, there was a sense of anxiety and concern among people. They were worried about finding the required documents for inclusion of their names in the SIR (Special Intensive Revision).
The speeches, especially by Tejashwi Yadav linked subsidies and ration to SIR. The yatra reinforced the fear among voters that if their name was excluded from the electoral roll, they would be cut off from welfare schemes and subsidies.
But this fear did not resonate closer to the election.
Until now, prima facie, our fieldwork does not show a churn that was evident during the Voter Adhikar Yatra. The rules for inclusion were subsequently relaxed to include Aadhar card as proof.
As a result, the SIR did not have a polarising effect that the Opposition had hoped and did not become an election issue.
Secondly in 2015, the election had turned around during the campaign period. RSS Chief Mohan Bhagwat's statement on reservations (in 2015) was picked up by the Opposition.
I remember attending one of Lalu Yadav's rallies where he was holding a copy of Bunch of Thoughts by (the RSS' second Sarsanghchalak) M S Golwalkar and saying that the RSS will take away your reservation.
There was a fear -- and people thought that they had to preserve reservation by voting for Lalu and Nitish. It generated a wave in their favour.
The coalition had driven the message that Gujaratis could not decide the future of Biharis with the 'Bihari versus Baahari' slogan.
In 2025, there is no wave against Nitish Kumar or the BJP or the 20-year-old anti-incumbency.
I don't see an anti-Nitish or pro-Tejashwi wave. Maybe it's present in some pockets. Maybe some other people have seen it. But I have not.
What about the sentiment among the young voters? Do you detect any restlessness for change there?
Of course, there is a sense of frustration, helplessness and a desire for change among the youth, but there is no real anger against Nitish Kumar.
He is getting old and there are doubts about his cognitive abilities, but people know he has delivered on law and order. Everybody says that now you can go out late and travel at night, something you couldn't do earlier.
The youth want change, but they are also divided.
In the constituency I have studied closely, I found that at the local level, it is not the party or Nitish Kumar, it is the personality of the candidate that matters.
That is why I feel the party which gives tickets to better candidates will emerge winner.
Youth that are not migrating out for jobs or labour tie their lot to the local candidate because they have to find sources of income in their own constituency.
Therefore, your neta becomes the sole source of patronage.
The 18 to 35 age group are the influencers in their communities.
How different are youth in rural areas compared to urban?
In the coaching centres of Patna or Muzaffarpur, the youth appear angry, helpless and want change. But there is a substantial number of youth anchored in local roots and tethered to the local economic structures in the villages.
For them, loyalty to the local candidate matters a lot. Most support candidates who have been in power.
Nitish Kumar has already diluted the MLA Area Development Fund. Most of the funds now come from the chief minister's office.
MLAs don't really have that much power, unless you are in the ruling party. Therefore, there is an incumbency advantage.
The RJD has been able to sustain itself despite being out of power because they have a large number of MLAs who are strong in their local areas.
The reason why parties field strongmen and Bahubalis is because they matter in the local power play and have the ability to generate resources locally.
In the absence of a wave, how is the contest poised? Is it neck to neck, close?
The last vote percentage difference between the two coalitions was very marginal -- around 12,000 odd votes.
It was a tough contest held during the Corona crisis amid social distancing, but Tejashwi was able to drive a successful narrative.
He was able to position himself as a fresh alternative.
This election will also be a close one. It is not going to be totally one-sided.
But to me, at least now, it appears that the NDA has an edge.
Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff