'In times of adversity, families unite, but the reverse is happening in the Lalu family.'
"The family has had its own problems for too long. It is not very new." Says Professor Abdul Qadir, Gaya-based political commentator on Bihar politics.
"Lalu has nine children; at least four of whom are very ambitious," Professor Qadir tells Rediff's Archana Masih discussing what lies behind the Lalu feud and how the RJD and BJP have fed off each other in Bihar.
The RJD's defeat has caused an ugly rift in the Lalu Yadav family and could not have come at a worse time. What is the political future of the RJD?
Lalu Yadav had an emotional connect with his followers and party members.
Unlike his father, Tejashwi has a transactional relationship. The emotional connect is missing.
Secondly, Lalu built a legacy after long years of struggle. He had to fight his way.
There is a difference in the basic approach between father and son.
Tejashwi was brought up with privilege in the chief minister's house. His approach to politics has been somewhat elitist and perhaps does not recognise the basic facts of rural Bihar.
He has not picked up the traits of his father and how his father made a place for himself against all odds.
Tejashwi is surrounded by people who may be tech-savvy, but are not familiar with the ground realities.
I recall a personal anecdote from the early 1990s which reveals the connect Lalu had with the people.
Lalu was on a mission about improving the hygiene of village children. He used to travel with senior officials carrying water, soap, shampoo to bathe the children on the spot. His officials were asked to give these children a bath. It was a popular story in those days.
I remember I was once present during one such visit to Dalit villages. Lalu asked a poor man whether he sent his children to school. He said no. So, Lalu picked up a policeman's stick and delivered a gentle blow to the person and told him the next time he visited he wanted the children to be in school.
I initially thought the man would feel humiliated. I took him aside and he told me, 'I pull a cycle rickshaw. I get beaten daily by traffic police or passengers. But this is the first time someone has beaten me in my own interest.'
Lalu understood that even such reprimands could strengthen his connect with the masses.
You made the point that Tejashwi relies on technology and that the human connect is missing. His dependence on Sanjay Yadav has been criticised by his sister who has blamed him for the rupture in the family.
The family has had its own problems for too long. It is not very new.
Like the saying goes -- 'Victory has many fathers and defeat is an orphan'.
Sanjay Yadav is to Tejashwi what Prashant Kishor used to be to Narendra Modi. He is Tejashwi's Prashant Kishor.
He has been creating constituency profiles, conducting surveys, and feeding data into the campaign etc. His loyalty to Tejashwi is unquestionable.
Lalu has nine children, at least, four of whom are very ambitious. Lalu faces the problem of plenty in that respect.
Misa Bharti has been active in politics. She was a member of the Rajya Sabha and could have continued in that position, but decided to contest the Lok Sabha election.
Somehow she won, but the RJD lost one Rajya Sabha seat that way.
Rohini Acharya and Tej Pratap are both ambitious. Rohini donated her kidney to Lalu. She unsuccessfully fought the Lok Sabha election from Saran in 2024.
Tej Pratap is unpredictable.
The family's dirty linen is being washed in public.
Normally, in times of adversity, families unite. But the reverse is happening in Lalu's family.
The RJD had won fewer seats in 2010, but it seems to be facing its toughest time yet with the eclipse of the patriarch Lalu and a bitter feud within the family. What do you think the future holds for the RJD?
One can't say with certainty.
Chances are that it may disintegrate.
Many ambitious individuals have emerged not only in the family, but among the Yadav caste.
Their commitment is to the chair and they can change their loyalties.
A significant number of Yadavs have shifted to the BJP in parliamentary elections, and many did the same in this assembly election too.
Tejashwi made certain mistakes. He conceded too much space to VIP Chief Mukesh Sahani who has little political following. This alienated the RJD from other communities, particularly Muslims.
This had a very negative impact on other followers of the RJD. At the behest of the NDA, a section of Muslims launched a campaign on social media against Tejashwi that a person whose caste doesn't command more than 3 per cent votes was offered the post of deputy chief minister -- while the community that commands 18 per cent of the votes in Bihar got nothing.
This narrative gained traction and was reflected in the results, especially in Seemanchal.
I did not expect AIMIM to do as well in Seemanchal. But this new narrative of Muslims being ignored in the RJD has paid off.
Is the Muslim-Yadav vote base that was the RJD's mainstay now broken?
It is not broken, but wide cracks have developed.
Is there a shift in the voting pattern of Muslims?
There is a myth about Muslim homogeneity or uniformity. Muslims have internal divisions as well -- often along caste lines. But it is the fear of the BJP that somehow keeps them united.
In areas where Muslims are a minority, security dominates their concerns. In regions like Seemanchal, where they are numerically strong, they feel less insecure, so voting patterns vary.
So it is a myth that Muslims vote in uniformity. Muslim society is as divided as any other social group.
In Bihar politics, both the RJD and BJP need each other.
The RJD and BJP, interestingly, have fed off each other politically: The upper castes back the BJP largely due to fear of Lalu, while Muslims back the RJD due to the fear of the BJP.
Most Muslims may be voting for RJD out of compulsion.
But given the choice, I think Rahul Gandhi has better traction. Many Muslims see Rahul Gandhi more favourably than Tejashwi, who they often consider opportunistic.
Is Asaduddin Owaisi emerging as a force to reckon with in the state?
Many Muslim intellectuals firmly believe that Owaisi is a Trojan horse. His politics suits the BJP. His rhetoric makes polarisation easier. In any divisive polity, the majority community will be at an advantage.
His provocative statements cause division which help the BJP -- and he faces far less harsh action than others who speak the language of division. He gets away with it. But this message is yet to percolate down to the Muslim masses.
In the larger context Tejashwi took the right decision by not aligning with Owaisi. Had AIMIM joined the Mahagathbandhan, the BJP would have found it much easier to polarise voters in Bihar.
One fact about Bihar is that casteism is more predominant and decisive than communalism.
Owaisi's exclusion from the Mahagathbandhan could not give the BJP the chance to polarise Bihar before the elections.
The number of Muslim MLAs has fallen from 19 in 2020 to 11. Isn't this a disappointment?
It is symbolic disappointment. The common experience of the Muslims is that their own MLAs, haven't delivered for their constituencies. This setback is more psychological than real.
What is Nitish Kumar's future? He has come out as the hero of the hour, but there is speculation about how long will he remain chief minister.
Nitish Kumar's mental health is a matter of concern.
He has truly governed Bihar independently only between 2005 and 2010. Since then, he has been engaged in the acrobatics of coalition management -- working either with Lalu or the BJP.
For the past few years, the BJP has effectively been running the administration. Nitish has become a 'name-lending' chief minister, bureaucrats and BJP-aligned officials are exercising real power.
A recent government order even gave the deputy chief minister nearly the same protocol and security as the chief minister.
Nitish may continue in office, but largely in name.
Has the BJP now has taken the front-pole position firmly in Bihar politics?
Almost certainly.
What direction do you see Bihar taking in the next few years?
Bihar is likely to remain the same. There won't be any drastic change, political or otherwise.
Apart from highways and a few infrastructure projects, core development indicators -- education, healthcare -- have barely improved and are unlikely to see dramatic change.
The state has been struggling to pay salary to its employees, teachers and others -- and schemes like the Rs 10,000 scheme to women will deepen the fiscal deficit.
The Centre will help to some extent, but the long-term economic impact will be negative.
In the long term it will harm the economy of Bihar economy in a major way.
What impact will this result have on other states going to the polls?
It may have an impact in the Hindi heartland, particularly UP going to the polls in 2027.
The electoral behaviour of West Bengal has been different from the Hindi belt. When the Congress was in absolute power in these states, Bengal was governed by the Leftists. So, there is no uniformity in the behaviour of Bengal and the Hindi heartland.
The defeat in Bihar may have a psychological impact on Akhilesh Yadav, but he has two years to work on it.
Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff