The government has to specify what it intends to do with caste census data.
It will be closely tracked if the government would simultaneously move towards removing the present 50% bar on reservations using means which are permitted in law.
If this is not done, the entire exercise will become meaningless and could boomerang on the BJP, observes Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay.
The Union government's far-reaching decision to conduct caste enumeration along with the much-delayed decadal Census is Prime Minister Narendra Modi's attempt to regain control of the national political narrative.
This decision took almost the entire political class by surprise. The immediate inclination of a significant section of the intelligentsia was to dub the move as the government's 'diversionary' tactics stemming out of an inability to yet launch an appropriate response to the gruesome terrorist killings in Baisaran, Pahalgam.
This, however, would not be an apt conclusion.
Although the step is not a 'masterstroke', as presented by peddlers of 'official' narratives within the media, it has certainly to be framed as a decision taken after realising that the time for meeting this demand has come and any further delay would further benefit the ruling party's adversaries, especially the Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha, Rahul Gandhi, and the Congress.
The announcement also underscores the PM's effort at working simultaneously on divergent matters with varying time schedules.
With this decision, Modi is now attempting to steal the thunder from the Opposition parties by announcing the enumeration before they launched an agitation demanding a caste census across India.
Additionally, the decision was taken in the backdrop of Modi attempting to moderate people's expectations regarding a 'fitting' response from the government to the terrorist attack.
The prime minister did so following a meeting on Tuesday with Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, National Security Advisor Ajit Kumar Doval and top brass of the defence forces.
In a widely publicised briefing of this meeting, it was announced that Modi has given a 'free hand' to the armed forces to respond to the terror attack.
He distanced himself on the decision-making exercise by stating that the armed forces have his full confidence and 'complete operational freedom to decide on the mode, targets and timing' of India's response.
The decision on caste enumeration in the next Census has been taken in the middle of uncertainty over the government's post-Pahalgam response, because the Registrar General and Census Commissioner's office needs adequate time to prepare appropriate pro forma for this exercise, not conducted since 1931, during colonial rule.
The Centre will also face demands from multiple quarters asking that all stakeholders, including political parties, civil society groups and academics, must be consulted to evolve clear objectives and timelines.
The decision is surprising because of sustained opposition to the caste census by Modi personally, the Bharatiya Janata Party and its affiliates within the Sangh Parivar.
Modi labeled those behind this demand, including Gandhi and his party, as 'urban Naxals', a trope routinely used derogatively by the BJP to disparage opponents.
The party and affiliates also cast the caste census repeatedly cast as an exercise that would trigger social conflict, bordering on violence.
Historically, the BJP and its affiliates were ranged against all demands with the potential to create schism between Hindu castes.
Caste identity among Hindus in India is intertwined with the policy of positive discrimination or reservations from the beginning, when the scheduled castes and scheduled tribes were accorded reservations for job and educational seats.
Matters reached a head in August 1990 with the then PM Vishwanath Pratap Singh's decision extending reservations for the Other Backward Classes (OBCs).
The decision was taken with the objective of undermining the BJP -- then an emerging political force -- by creating disunity on caste lines and weakening the Ayodhya Ram temple agitation.
Although not formally, the BJP opposed the decision to implement the Mandal Commission recommendations.
L K Advani's Rath Yatra from Somnath to Ayodhya was taken out to counter agitations against reservations and reforge Hindu unity.
The Atal Bihari Vajpayee government too did not conduct caste enumeration in the 2001 Census for fear of triggering caste conflict.
Even after assuming the PM's office in 2014, Modi did not move ahead on the socio economic and caste census exercise, the Congress-led UPA-2 government conducted during its tenure.
In 2015, on the eve of the Bihar elections, RSS Sarsanghchalak Mohan Bhagwat called for a review of reservations and this played a significant part in the BJP's dismal electoral showing.
Importantly, a caste survey in Bihar, which revived the demand for an all-India caste census, was conducted when Nitish Kumar partnered the Congress and Rashtriya Janata Dal.
The BJP was unenthusiastic to the idea then although it did not oppose the exercise.
The saffron conglomerate has altered its stance on the caste census because it now considers this to be a potential passport to continuing in power.
Within its traditional supporters, the RSS leadership shall have to devise ways to mollify disillusionment, or even anger, of the upper castes, sections of who may nurture the sentiment of 'betrayal'.
But with the politics of 'bahujan' having greater support now than when the old minority elite hegemonised politics, people from the upper castes have little option in the changed polity but to stand with the BJP.
The notification making the decision formal would be closely perused, both for what it states and what is left out.
Following this would be the information that surveyors must secure from each respondent -- a mere name of caste is inadequate for such a gigantic exercise.
The government needs to collect data from every respondent, not just about their caste identity, but also their economic, educational and occupational status.
And finally, the government has to specify what it intends to do with caste census data.
It will be closely tracked if the government would simultaneously move towards removing the present 50% bar on reservations using means which are permitted in law.
If this is not done, the entire exercise will become meaningless and could potentially boomerang on the BJP.
It is a truism that Indian politics changed eternally after V P Singh's decision to roll out the Mandal Commission recommendations.
An all India caste census and a subsequent decision to make available reservations on the basis of the principle enunciated (again) by Rahul Gandhi -- 'jitni abadi, utni hissedaari/haque (rights or participation equal to population)', would undeniably cause another major political churning.
The shakeup will not be witnessed within just society but also in every political party and organisations like the RSS which currently have a predominantly upper caste leadership.
New leaders with new patrons will consequently emerge in every setup.
Old rivals will fade away and new contenders to power will emerge everywhere, at all levels.
Over the past eleven years since Modi became PM, the BJP expanded the social base of its leadership, as well as political constituency -- it is no longer a Bania-Brahmin party.
Modi was not born as a 'declared' OBC, but his caste was added to the OBC list in the late 1990s. He promptly transmogrified into an OBC leader and has been benefited immensely.
Several leaders across parties, including in the BJP, who visualised long innings for themselves, will gradually get eased out as their caste identity will in future become a liability.
In society too, those from the general or upper castes will get restive owing to possible further shrinkage of the reservation quota that is available for them.
Reservations for the Economically Weaker Sections, enacted and introduced in law by Modi in January 2019, may get re-visited eventually, to examine if this can be enhanced.
There will be further political churning if the Supreme Court reaches a verdict before the Census on the petition that seeks declaration of groups within Muslims and Christians as Dalits.
Although several social groups from these two minority communities are presently accommodated in the OBC category in some states, the demand for greater inclusion is gaining momentum.
Such a development would benefit the BJP because existing Hindu OBC groups would not like others to be entitled to a share of the reservations 'cake'.
This can further sharpen existing religious polarisation and result in greater consolidation of pro-Hindutva votes behind the BJP.
The next Census, whenever the Centre chooses to initiate the process of enumeration, would also have a bearing on delimitation which has already created a political furore with the current principle of representation from various states linked to population.
All processes of political churning are often accompanied by confusion because past hierarchies and social certainties get altered greatly.
By announcing the intention of adding caste enumeration to the next Census, Modi has clearly embarked on shepherding India into unknown pastures and uncharted territories.
The Opposition parties may initially applaud themselves for getting Modi to make a turnaround on the caste census, but on the road ahead, they have to put this achievement in the past and navigate the path ahead with far greater astuteness than what has been witnessed since 2014.
Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay is an author and journalist based in Delhi-NCR.
His latest book is The Demolition, The Verdict and The Temple: The Definitive Book on the Ram Mandir Project.
He is also the author of Narendra Modi: The Man, The Times.
Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff.com
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