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Kashmir once again at the crossroads

From time to time, and for purely educational purposes, I tune in to Pakistan Television (PTV World). It is, from an Indian point of view, depressing. If there is any hope of forging lasting peace between India and Pakistan, a few evenings' worth of watching PTV World removes all illusions. Which brings up the theme of this column: if I spoke of General Musharraf's options last week, it is time to examine those of India today.

It is a truism to say that Kashmir is at the crossroads today. There have been so many of them that I occasionally get the feeling that everybody is moving in circles. How many times have we heard both Delhi and Islamabad protesting that they want peace? But there is a difference today; no, it is nothing to do with nuclear arms, merely the lingering aftermath of Kargil.

The Vajpayee government deserves some credit for trying to break out of the vicious circle of allegation and counter-allegation. Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee risked a lot with his bus journey to Lahore; the invasion of Kargil and the military coup that toppled Prime Minister Nawaz Sharief put an end to that start. While there has been nothing on the scale of the Kargil operations this year, the brutal slaughter of pilgrims to the ancient shrine of Amarnath has put paid to any hope of direct negotiations between Delhi and Islamabad this year.

(For the record, Pakistan has consistently denied any hand with militant activity in Jammu and Kashmir. It is also fair to add that the cold-blooded murder of the pilgrims was condemned by the foreign ministry in Islamabad.)

One way out of the logjam could have been direct talks between the Government of India and militant outfits. This was indeed attempted with the Hizbul Mujahideen. This was not a random effort; it happens to be the only major militant organisation that is composed largely of Kashmiris. (The other six terrorist outfits are primarily, or entirely, non-Kashmiri in nature according to Indian intelligence sources, with at least 11 different nationalities being represented.)

That effort, as we all know, fell flat on its face when the Hizbul Mujahideen leadership in Islamabad insisted that Pakistan should also be present at the talks. The abortion of the talks may have represented a tactical victory for some hawks, but it could prove a costly strategic error. The immediate consequence was that the United States and China came out with statements expressing their annoyance. Delhi would have preferred that talks continued with the Hizbul Mujahideen, but the support of other nations is no mean consolation prize!

But where does India go from here? The Government of India earned plaudits last year when it ensured that there was no Indian violation of the Line of Control. However, no government can be expected to display the same restraint forever. To be honest, I am a bit surprised at the vehemence of the reactions after news came in of the killing of the pilgrims. Two or three years ago, I remember Mulayam Singh Yadav standing up in the Lok Sabha to speak warmly of Pakistanis as "brothers"; today, the chief of the Samajwadi Party is urging more "pro-active" measures.

It is easy to dismiss this as just another example of Mulayam Singh Yadav's opportunism, but that would be missing the point. If he is trying to seize the chance, it is because the opportunity exists. In other words, he feels India's mood has changed so radically that there are votes to be won by taking a stand against Pakistan.

Mercifully, the Vajpayee ministry is under no pressure from Mulayam Singh Yadav. (The recent local body elections in Uttar Pradesh have removed much of the Samajwadi Party's sting.) Nor is the Congress much of a factor, if only because the party is too confused to make a stand one way or the other.

But time and India's patience are both running out. How much time is there? Well, I think we could see a watershed of sorts in a few weeks, which is when Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee visits New York to speak at the General Assembly of the United Nations. There, he is expected to hold meetings with diplomats from all those countries that had urged restraint on India one year ago. He will probably remind them that this virtue cuts both ways. If the world community cannot, or will not, keep its commitments, then India must look for other solutions.

That does not mean war. But India will make it clear that foreign militants cannot expect to stage hit-and-massacre missions with impunity thanks to their refuges across India's borders. There will be no return to the stalemate of the old days on Jammu and Kashmir. The Government of India has welcomed the Hizbul Mujahideen leadership's statement that talks have been "delayed, not derailed", but it wants something a little more substantive than mere words.

The bottom line is that the Government of India has already made a decision to take steps to make the militants -- and their supporters -- pay for the deaths of innocent Indians. There is still some time left before these measures begin to be used -- and there won't be any public announcement either -- but that margin is being whittled every day.

Eighteen months ago, Atal Bihari Vajpayee gave Jayalalitha a very long rope, until her continued assaults rebounded on herself. That same strategy will be used, and probably with similar results, in external affairs as in domestic policy.

T V R Shenoy