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Both Sonia Gandhi and her opponents are preparing for a likely face-off, each using their own respective brahmastras, hoping to inflict maximum damage with minimum losses. With both sides refusing to speak openly, only sources could provide information about what is likely to happen.

For Gandhi, the strategy is a la Indira Gandhi, a back-to-the-people campaign. Gandhi is touring Amethi, her Lok Sabha constituency, and other nearby areas, addressing the people. Then she has plans to address a 'Save the Constitution' rally on April 14, the birth anniversary of Dr B R Ambedkar, who is considered the Father of the Constitution. Her advisors are drawing up an itinerary for her, in the hope that successful rallies across India will send the message that within the Congress, her popularity is second to none.

The dissidents are using different tactics. There is no intention of attacking her directly -- a risky proposition since it is believed speaking against a revered widow will actually increase her popularity in the country, especially among the women -- but to hit out at her policies, and her advisors.

"If you notice, all her policies and ideas are being challenged. She used to support liberalisation, that is being questioned. She said no coalitions, yet the Congress has joined coalitions in Maharashtra and Bihar and is going to tie-up with Mamta Banerjee in West Bengal. What is more, these steps are being forced by the workers, which is a direct challenge to her authority," said Congress sources.

If the first step is to make it clear that Gandhi's writ does not extend beyond Delhi, the second move is to embarrass her. The dissidents have noted with glee that Gandhi has performed badly in Parliament, reading out only prepared texts and hardly participating in the debate. Moreover, it is now clear that her grasp of various subject matters is limited.

"Outside Parliament, she has her advisors to guide her, but in the Lok Sabha, she is really supposed to lead. The dissidents plan is clear: raise extremely difficult subjects and then watch Gandhi fumble for words, commit blunders galore, and tie herself up in knots. She'll become the object of the nation's ridicule," said the sources.

A classic example is Gandhi's meeting with United States President Bill Clinton. She reportedly told Clinton that India must have a minimum deterrent, thereby endorsing the position of the Bharatiya Janata Party. Later, an embarrassed Congress claimed that no such statement was made and Gandhi had only said that India would not sign the CTBT. Pranab Mukherjee was blamed for making the faux pas.

"If she commits mistake and is unable to articulate well in the Lok Sabha, which is shown live on TV, then Indians as a whole will lose faith in her and the Nehru-Gandhi veneer will wear off. Then she'll be forced to step down," said the sources.

The dissidents already have a weapon, the 'one person one post' principle. At present, Gandhi holds the post of Congress parliamentary party leader (and by virtue of that, leader of the opposition in the Lok Sabha), and Congress president. The dissidents plan to force her to give up one post at least, preferably the post of Congress parliamentary party leader.

"Once she gives up one of the posts under pressure, then it will have a snowballing effect and soon she'll be forced to give up the other posts also," said Congress sources. The same tactic was applied to P V Narasimha Rao, who was literally swept out once he began his retreat.

Can Gandhi forestall this? Certainly if her rallies are a huge success, it will have a sobering effect on the dissidents. Alternatively, and many Congress people actually would prefer this, she could declare that she is not interested in becoming the prime minister and suggest another name.

"Such a move can galvanise the party, because it is believed that while the people still revere her, they don't want her to be PM," said Congress sources.

The problem, however, is that today many Congress watchers believe that it is the other way round. Former Congress party member and journalist M J Akbar in a scathing article said Gandhi was more keen on becoming prime minister than salvaging the party. His views are shared by many, said sources.

Yet, when is all of this likely to happen, if at all? There are two major events coming up. In June and July, the Congress is scheduled to hold its organisational election, right from the top post of party president down to the district level. While no one is expected to mount a serious challenge to Gandhi's re-election bid as party president, it is the Congress Working Committee election that will be closely watched. The composition of the CWC will show just how much clout Gandhi still retains over the Congress and will be a clear test for her.

Some news reports have claimed that Gandhi is seeking to postpone the organisational election on the pretext of the ongoing budget session of Parliament. Should that happen, it would only further erode her legitimacy and authority within the party, and give her dissidents another handle.

The second, and perhaps more important event, is the assembly election due early next year. "If Sonia Gandhi is still the Congress president and if the party does not do well, then nothing will be able to save her. She has to show good results in that election, assuming she is still in the saddle. Of course, if she does, then all will be forgiven," said a senior Congress leader.

Yet, if the present drift in the Congress continues, many also believe that the party will not take the risk of fighting the next election with Gandhi at the helm. "Some of the top leaders, especially from the CWC might consider her more of a liability than an asset and decide to ease her out before the next round of election," the sources added.

What happens finally, only time will tell. But one thing is certain: the Congress is simmering with discontent, waiting to explode.

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