This is the second of a three-part series. Click to read Part 1.

It is the TINA (There Is No Alternative) factor at work. A slogan used effectively by the Congress in its election campaigns through the 1980s and 1990s has returned to haunt the party.

And how.

Sonia Gandhi today survives simply because there is no alternative to her. At least that is what the Congress party leaders and workers across the board believe. Take away Gandhi and you have numerous regional chieftains and small leaders in Delhi, none of whom can really win an election except in their state or constituency. The only Congress face that the lay person from Kashmir to Kanyakumari and Kutch to Kohima can recognise today is Gandhi. All other leaders are confined in space.

"If there was an alternative leader, he or she would have emerged by now. The very fact that in this leadership vacuum no one has emerged is why Sonia Gandhi continues to survive," said Congress sources.

The Congress's structure is also such that viable power centres within the party cannot be built up. As political analyst Mahesh Rangarajan pointed out to rediff.com in an earlier interview: "By combining the post of party president and parliamentary chief, one person holds the two most important posts and thus denies anyone else from emerging as a contender."

In defence of Gandhi, Mani Shankar Aiyar claims that the Congress parliamentary leader also being the party president is a tradition within the party, and so why blame the present incumbent?

In the past, however, this was done to ensure that the party president was unchallenged; today this lack of challenge is hurting the Congress more than benefiting it.

At the second level is the Congress Working Committee, the policy-making body. It comprises 20 members, of whom 10 are elected and the rest nominated by the party president. This gives the party chief incredible clout over the composition, and the CWC often ends up endorsing the party president's views.

The first sign of trouble is when CWC members turn against the their chief. Sources now claim that the CWC, which about two years ago welcomed Gandhi and booted out Sitaram Kesri, is now doing just that.

"I believe that in the CWC no one except Arjun Singh is with her. The others are downright hostile or indifferent to her," a source said.

The top CWC leaders who are against Gandhi are Rajesh Pilot, Jitendra Prasad and Vijay Bhaskar Reddy. The latest entrant to this side, it is believed, is Pranab Mukherjee.

The bulk of the Congress leaders are sitting on the fence, waiting for the tide to turn decisively one way or the other. They are waiting for someone to pick up the gauntlet of challenging Gandhi. While no one is willing to hazard a guess on who will finally emerge or challenge her, Congress sources say the following names are doing the rounds, though more may emerge later:

*Rajesh Pilot, the eternal rebel, is seen as being in the vanguard of the challenge. Pilot has a history of taking on the party's top leaders and had even sought to challenge Gandhi to the post of president in the "name of democracy" (he finally opted out under pressure). When requested for an interview, Pilot's private secretary said he is not meeting the press. However, one Congress source was confident that Pilot would strike soon, that he is waiting for the right opportunity. Trouble is, the one who bells the cat will probably pay a heavy price.

*Digvijay Singh, chief minister of Madhya Pradesh. At present, the only Congress chief minister into his second term, which makes him the senior-most chief minister. Singh has insisted that he is a Gandhi loyalist and has no intention of quitting Bhopal. However, sources say that he has also been saying that after serving two terms as chief minister, he is looking for bigger challenges. However, Singh right now is busy guarding his own turf after some Congress leaders began questioning his authority.

*Madhavrao Scindia, deputy leader of the opposition in the Lok Sabha. By virtue of holding a constitutional post in the Lok Sabha, second only to Gandhi, Scindia has also emerged as a contender for the top post. So far, he has played his cards extremely close to his chest, keeping a low profile. He is seen as lacking widespread support. Also, sections of the party are against him.

*The southern dark horses: With many MPs from South India, southern MPs are reportedly seeking their own person. The names being mentioned are A K Antony, former Kerala chief minister and a person considered extremely honest, and S M Krishna, the Karnataka chief minister. However, Antony lacks widespread support and Krishna is still consolidating himself in Bangalore.

*Dr Manmohan Singh, who at one time was seen as a potential prime ministerial candidate thanks to his clean image and being a person from a minority community. However, today Singh is a disillusioned man, still smarting at his defeat for the South Delhi Lok Sabha seat, which he blames on Congress infighting rather than the BJP. He is perhaps the only person with an all-India image, besides Gandhi. What, however, goes strongly against Dr Singh today is the desire of a section of the Congress to give up the reforms track initiated by him. This section blames reforms for alienating the poor from the party. Many in the Congress also believe that Dr Singh will quit politics when his Rajya Sabha term expires in 2003.

*P V Narasimha Rao, the former prime minister. In a sense, though Rao is a pan-Indian leader, he is the least popular choice among the Congress workers. He is held responsible for starting the party's downslide and for alienating the Muslims by allowing the Babri mosque's destruction. "No Congress worker wants Rao back, they just want him to get Sonia Gandhi out," said a source.

A Congress leader admitted that unless the party solves the conundrum of who'll be the next chief or parliamentary party leader, Gandhi will continue to rule the roost.

However, the bigger fear is that further dawdling might continue to weaken the party, the great worry being it might soon reach the point of no return. This fear might lead to desperation. "Before the party dies, something will have to happen," the Congress sources said, but were at a loss to explain what.

And until such time, both sides continue to wait and watch, hoping the other side will blink first.

CONTINUED: Sonia's Kurukshetra

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