ELECTIONS '98
COMMENTARY
SPECIALS
INTERVIEWS
CAPITAL BUZZ
REDIFF POLL
DEAR REDIFF
THE STATES
YEH HAI INDIA!
ARCHIVES

'How are we going to cope?'

Subramanian Swamy

The nuclear tests will lead to closer ties between China and Pakistan and an even more rapid exchange of military technology between them.

The Chinese are a strange people. Take, for example, the Indo-China crisis that cropped up in 1988. The Chinese, then, had indulged in a lot of posturing and hullabaloo, accusing India of crossing the line of actual control at the Nyam Jang Chu pass.

For a while, it looked like we were heading for a serious confrontation; but things cooled down rapidly and, soon after, the Chinese officially invited then prime minister Rajiv Gandhi to visit their country.

On the other hand, when something really bothers them, their reaction tends to be muted. History is witness to this particular tendency of the Chinese -- the only time they differed from pattern was during the Cultural Revolution. And that is exactly what is worrying me in the present situation -- the fact that the Chinese have been so restrained in so serious a matter.

Also, I don't really think the Chinese can really afford to jump up and hurl accusations at us, considering that they themselves have conducted similar tests and stockpiled a nuclear arsenal. Besides, they have more than 100,000 troops in Tibet. They are prepared for any eventuality.

It would really thrill my heart if we could go eyeball-to-eyeball with the Chinese. Ordinarily, the fact that we have cocked a scientific snook at the rest of the world would have made me jump with joy. What darkens the horizon is the fact that we have not considered the consequences of our actions.

Which flabbergasts me. How will we cope with the sanctions? What is our contingency plan? The stock market has collapsed. How are we going to cope with that?

I would have been proud if the government had also announced a global strategic doctrine outlining the circumstances that would compel us to use our nuclear capabilities for non-peaceful purposes.

If I were the prime minister, I would not have undertaken such an act without preparing for its fallout. I would not have given permission for conducting nuclear tests within just two months of becoming prime minister. I would have gathered support from like-minded nations before conducting these tests -- this would have given us a leverage in containing the global consequences. And I would have undertaken diplomatic initiatives to make sure my actions did not serve to unify China, Pakistan and the US.

But the government did not do any of these things. Not did they think it necessary to take the nation into confidence about such an important matter. The government did not take Parliament into confidence. The present parliamentary committee on defence, which was formed more than two weeks ago, was not convened. And a most important decision was taken in an hasty, arbitrary, reckless manner.

What was the purpose of these tests? To strengthen India's defences against China and Pakistan? And what have they achieved? As a result of their actions, China, Pakistan and the US have found a common stand and have united in their effort to isolate India. It has negated all our diplomatic exercises to prevent a commonality of interest between these three nations as far as we were concerned. All in all, these nuclear tests have proved detrimental to our national security.

Still, our government says these tests will enhance our defence capabilities against China and Pakistan. It is interesting to note, at this point, that we spend two per cent of our GDP on defence, Pakistan spends seven per cent, China spends six per cent and we need not talk about the US, which is the most powerful nation in the world.

Our relationship with both China and Pakistan has deteriorated over the last few years. Both these nations have been creating border problems. The fact that we now have nuclear capability is not going to improve our relationship with them. Instead, it will lead to closer ties between China and Pakistan and an even more rapid exchange of military technology between them.

And, yes, many people have equated Defence Minister George Fernandes's hawkish statements on China as a prelude to our conducting these nuclear tests. This is not true, simply because George Fernandes did not know a thing about these tests. The only other people who might have known about it are the RSS. George Fernandes was nowhere in the picture.

George Fernandes has been involved in the Free Tibet Movement for many years now. What he has done is foisted that interest on the nation without analysing the ramifications of his action. We adopt a particular attitude with China and they retaliate. Has George Fernandes considered if we are in a position to meet and respond to the Chinese countermeasures?

It is a highly erratic and anarchic stand that he has taken.

All these events hark back to Nehru's childish statement, "We will throw the Chinese out of India." How on earth are we going to do that? He didn't have the answer; I don't think anyone else has it either.

Parliament is scheduled to reconvene soon. At which time, the government will have a lot of explaining to do -- both to the nation and its elected representatives.

Dr Subramanian Swamy, Janata Party president, member of Parliament's committee on defence and a China-watcher, spoke to Savera R Someshwar.

Tell us what you think of this report