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Despite denials, Sagarika missile may not be a myth after all

Rajesh Ramachandran in Delhi

Despite the defence ministry's statement on Monday that the Defence Research and Development Organisation is not working on a sea launched based missile, the Sagarika, Rediff On The NeT learns that India may be pursuing a naval missile.

The New York Times reported on Monday that the Russians are helping India develop this missile, a claim that New Delhi and Washington have both denied. The Sagarika is reported to have a range of 200 miles, strike deep into Pakistan territory and carry a nuclear warhead.

After the successful launch of the medium range ballistic missile, Prithvi, the government sanctioned almost Rs 500 million for the naval version. "But our missile programme is totally indigenous," adds a defence ministry official.

Defence analysts attribute the NYT report to the US attempt to deflect attention from Pakistan's Ghauri launch and make the Indian missile programme the focus of controversy.

They believe the timing of the leak to the NYT and the US administration's subsequent pronouncement is also linked to Chinese People's Liberation Army chief General Fu Quanyou's first-ever Indian visit.

"It is possible that Pakistan is going in for further missile testing. America has failed to stop the transfer of technology and even material to Pakistan from North Korea and China," Dr K Subrahmanyam, the noted defence analyst and former director of the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, told Rediff On The NeT.

"Now that the Missile Technology Control Regime is a total failure and everybody is supplying everything, the US wants to deflect public opinion," argues Dr Subrahmanyam.

Defence analysts claim India would not have sought Russian assistance, not after Moscow let India down, caving into US pressure and not delivering the cryogenic engine necessary for the Geostationary Satellite Launch Vehicle launch in 1992-1993. India later developed the technology necessary to launch the GSLV.

Since then India has gone ahead full stream with its indigenous integrated missile development programme.

The NYT report said Sagarika had been developed in conjunction with India's nuclear submarine programme. India leased a nuclear submarine from the erstwhile Soviet Union in 1988. The re-christened vessel, INS Chakra was returned to Russia in 1991.

"The very fact that the SLBM programme is connected to our nuclear submarine project shows there was not much Russian involvement in the missile's development," a senior defence ministry official closely associated with the Advanced Technology Vessel Project, as the nuclear submarine programme is called, told Rediff On The NeT.

The ATVP never really took off. The major hitch was the power plant --- the nuclear reactor. "The earlier understanding was that we would copy the design of the reactor, but the changing political climate in Russia made it impossible and that is where we are stuck," the defence ministry official said.

The US is contemplating sanctions against India and Russia, because of the fear that Indians will learn 'how to launch something from underwater, get it above the water and ignite an engine,' according to the NYT report.

But the underwater firing or the cold launch technology cannot be used until India is equipped with a vessel capable of launching the weapon.

"There is no sign of the ATVP being operational in the near future. So what is the brouhaha about the SLBM?" asks Dr Subrahmanyam.

The NYT report also mentioned the possibility of Sagarika being a Cruise missile. This is not ruled out by Indian experts.

A Cruise missile does not involve as much complex technology as a ballistic missile. The Cruise missile does not go out of the earth's atmosphere and come back like a ballistic missile.

The re-entry technology, which is the most difficult to perfect, is not needed for the Cruise missile and hence is easier to develop.

Seeing a Russian hand in the missile programme is easy because Russia was one of the first countries to perfect underwater missile launch technology. India having worked closely with Russia on its various defence programmes is a natural suspect in American eyes.

Some defence sceptics suggest the three dimensional launch technology could have been borrowed, but not in the past three years as maintained by American officials. Russia signed an agreement with the US in 1993 barring transfer of ballistic missile technology to any other country, especially India.

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