"There is a slowdown in the offing, unless strong investment reverses it. In absence of investment, industrial growth will taper off in another six to seven months," said DK Joshi, senior economist, Crisil.
The index of six infrastructure industries constitutes almost 27 per cent of the industrial production index. This index is a measure of industrial growth in the economy.
Figures released by the ministry of commerce and industry showed that barring the coal sector, the other five sectors reported a significant decrease in growth in April 2005.
Crude petroleum and petroleum refinery products reported a dip in production in April 2005, compared with the corresponding month in 2004.
"If the past cyclical pattern continues, the current positive cycle is about to end," Joshi said.
"The growth, so far, was led by investment and capacity utilisation. If investment picks up, growth in industrial production will continue," he said.
In February 2005, the index was 0.3 per cent below the level in February 2004. Growth in March was, however, better at 3.7 per cent.
"There is a possibility of a slowdown, though it will be better to wait for a few months before drawing a firm conclusion," said BB Bhattacharya, director, Institute of Economic Growth.
He also added that it was possible that capacities had reached the limit and that industry was unable to maintain the growth rates of the previous two years.
Electricity generation was 50,326.9 million Kwh in April 2005, compared with 48,930 million Kwh in April 2004 and 52,873 million Kwh in March 2005.
Cement production was at 11,910 thousand tonnes in April 2005 against 11,140 thousand tonnes in April 2004 and 12,525 thousand tonnes in March 2005.
Finished steel was at 3,347.9 thousand tonnes in April 2005, up from 3,113.3 thousand tonnes in April 2004, a growth of 7.5 per cent. In March 2005, steel production was 3,502 thousand tonnes.
Coal production in April 2005 was 30.5 million tonnes, up from 28.2 million tonnes in April 2004, an increase of 8.2 per cent. In March 2005, production was 40.7 million tonnes.
Crude petroleum production was down to 2802 thousand tonnes in April 2005 from 2814 thousand tonnes in the same month last year, a dip of 0.4 per cent.
The petroleum refinery product output was 8930 thousand tonnes in April 2005, down 7.9 per cent from 9694 thousand tonnes in April 2004.