Home > Business > Budget 2004-05 > Report

Auto industry eyes $5 bn revenue by FY08

July 08, 2004 18:38 IST
Last Updated: July 08, 2004 19:00 IST


With $1 trillion worth of opportunity knocking at its doors, the Indian auto industry with its low cost manpower and homegrown IT advantage is all set to grow its revenues to $5 bn by FY08, a five fold increase from the current levels. However, dated technology and competition from countries like China and Thailand might disrupt the industry growth story.

 Budget Measures
  • Duty on key inputs such as non-alloy steel to be reduced from 15% to 10%. Duty on alloy steel, copper, lead, zinc and base metals also reduced from 20% to 15%
  • Consortium of banks formed to ensure speedy conclusion of loan agreements and implementation of infrastructure projects.
  • 2% education cess on all taxes.

     Budget Impact
  • Given the spate of FTAs (free trade agreements) that the Indian government was signing with other Asian countries, it was being feared that the Indian auto components industry would lose its competitiveness on account of lower duties prevailing in these regions. However, the reduction in duties on certain key raw materials such as steel, lead and zinc seems to have allayed some of those fears.

  • The fortunes of the auto ancillary industry are linked to the auto industry. Thus, certain positive announcements for the auto industry such as thrust on infrastructure development and removal of excise duties on tractors augurs well for the auto ancillaries industry.

  • Just as R&D spend is important for the auto industry, it is equally important for the auto ancillaries manufacturers. Infact, with the industry players competing in fiercely competitive markets of US and Europe, the need for adequate investments in R&D cannot be understated. Therefore, the turning down of suggestion of 150% R&D deduction benefits as applicable to auto, IT and pharma sectors, is not likely to go down well with industry players.


     Sector Outlook
  • Though the budget did not spring up any major surprises for the sector, we remain positive on the sector. The reduction in customs duties on certain key inputs however, is one positive move. This will ensure that the Indian auto ancillaries industry remains cost competitive vis-à-vis major rivals such as China and Thailand and comfortably achieve the target of increasing the export revenues to US$ 5 bn by 2008 (US$ 1 bn now). However, any slow down in the Indian auto industry will hurt the prospects.


     Industry Wish List

    Key pre-budget memorandum for 2004-05 from Automotive Component Manufacturers Association of India (ACMA) is as follows::

  • Setting up of 3 domestic SEZs in the North, West and Southern India clustering around the major automotive manufacturing hubs. There should be exemption from customs duty on inputs, sales tax & excise duty for supplies to units in the SEZ.

  • All barriers to inter-state trade and commerce should be removed and a uniform national market to be created on the implementation of VAT.

  • Status quo to be maintained on import tariffs on auto-components so that they would be kept at the current levels of 25% for the next 2-3 years

  • Benefit of 150% weighted deduction for investment made on R&D maybe extended to auto component manufacturers also, as it has been done in the case of other notified industries.


     top the years
    Budget 2001-02Budget 2002-03Budget 2003-04
    Status quo maintained in excise duty structure as most producers are in the 16% CENVAT bracket.

    8% special excise duty on cars and two-wheelers to be withdrawn.

    Surcharge on import duty of certain key raw materials lowered.

    Reduction in customs duty on metals used by industry. While duty on copper, zinc and lead reduced from 35% to 25%, duty on Aluminium reduced from 25% to 15%.

    De-reservation of a number of items in the SSI sector.

    Measures to bring in large-scale public investment in infrastructure development and acceleration in the Golden Quadrilateral project.

    Additional levy of a cess of 50 paise per liter of diesel and motor spirit, which will contribute Rs 26 bn and help in acceleration of highway development program.

    IT companies will continue to enjoy the benefits of 10A/10B benefits even after a change of management.

    Reduction in excise duty on cars from 32% to 24% and electric vehicles from 16% to 8%.

    Decrease in freight rate on iron and steel by around 5.3%.



    Key Positives
  • Cost advantage - Due to cost related pressures on global auto players and Tier 1 suppliers, a lot of them have started outsourcing components from Indian auto ancillary players. The industry, which exported components worth over US$ 1 bn in FY04, is also benefiting from strong domestic sales.

  • Large untapped market - Global auto components market is worth over US$ 1 trillion and considering India's market size, which is just 0.8% of the total market size, there exists tremendous growth opportunity for the domestic auto players to exploit.

  • Milking the MNC experience - The entry of global players such as Ford, GM, Toyota and Honda into the Indian market has allowed the Indian manufacturers to work with these players on global production, quality and delivery systems. It has also helped the global players to see for themselves the evolution of many auto components manufacturers and they are therefore now entrusting them with more work.

  • IT advantage - Thanks to the country's IT advantage, the industry is capable of becoming a full-fledged service provider (research, design, development, testing) to global OEMs and thus score over competitors like China and Thailand. This combined with low cost quality manpower strengthens our stand in the global arena.

      
    Key Negatives
  • Not enough economies of scale - Despite being around 60 years old, the domestic auto industry is even behind countries like South Korea, Brazil and Mexico in terms of production and sales, thus depriving it the benefit of economies of scale. This makes it difficult for companies to invest extensively in R&D and development, a key competitive tool in the global market.

  • Competitive threats - Countries like China and Thailand might put a spanner in domestic industry's wheels. While China has huge economies of scale and lower labour cost than India in some areas, Thailand is believed to have excess capacity (legacy of East Asian crisis) and depreciated assets. Therefore, these countries are capable of beating India at its own game, that of low cost.

  • Trade agreements might hurt - The growing number of FTAs (Free Trade Agreements) that are being signed by India with countries like Thailand, Singapore, China etc is likely to hurt the domestic players as they pay a relatively higher duty of around 25% as compared to 1%-10% being paid by its Asian counterparts.


    Equitymaster.com is one of India's premier finance portals. The web site offers a user-friendly portfolio tracker, a weekly buy/sell recommendation service and research reports on India's top companies.


    Article Tools
    Email this article
    Top emailed links
    Print this article
    Write us a letter
    Discuss this article



    Related Stories


    Auto Ancillary: Pre-Budget show

    Automobiles: Pre-Budget analysis











    Budget 2004-05: The Complete Coverage | Rail Budget 2004-05










    Copyright © 2004 rediff.com India Limited. All Rights Reserved.