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Fundmen see rocky road ahead

Kausik Datta in Kolkata | January 30, 2004 09:00 IST

The stock market will be volatile over the next few months in spite of a strong positive undercurrent.

The bellwether Sensex is expected to hover between 6,500 and 7,000 once a new government is in place, fund managers predicted on Thursday evening following a smooth closure of January futures and options contracts.

K K Mittal, vice-president and head, Escorts Asset Management, said the forthcoming general elections would force the Union government to come out with announcements at regular intervals, which might create uncertainty among marketmen. "The end result of the uncertainty is volatility," he said.

However, the strong fundamentals of the economy will remain the same and will push up the index once a clear picture of the next government emerges.

"I expect the Sensex shall cross 7,000 after the new government takes charger," he added. A conservative Krishnamurthy Vijayan, chief executive officer of J M Capital Management, said he expected the Sensex to touch 6,500 after the results of the elections were announced.

He said the confusion over the issue of hedge funds and margin payment created volatility this month.

"With the completion of today's (Thursday's) F&O settlement for January, it is unlikely that these issues will be at centre stage in the coming months. But political uncertainty will create volatility," he added.

A CEO of a mutual fund, requesting anonymity, said the political uncertainty, which ruled the market in the past, will also undo other positive factors till the elections.

He expected the Sensex will go beyond 6500 after polls. All of them were sure that the colour or combination (in case of a coalition) of the government will be no issue to the market.

Mittal said the elections will be fought on the basis of economic, and not political, manifesto agreed upon by the party or the members of the coalition.

However, they agreed that marketmen will feel comfortable if the BJP-led NDA comes to power.

The last few trading sessions have been the most volatile ever since the Sensex's inception. The index has gained or lost over 100 points in the last nine trading sessions.

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