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CMIE revises 2002-03 exports target upwards to 18.7%
February 10, 2003 15:58 IST
Buoyed by the surge in India's exports for April-December 2002 despite global slowdown, the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy on Monday revised the export growth forecast for 2002-03 from 10 per cent to 18.7 per cent, while maintaining the GDP growth estimate at 3.7 per cent.
The higher than expected acceleration in exports in spite of struggling US economy, recession in Japan and Germany and a volatile political situation in the Middle-east was seen till now and they (exports) are likely to grow much faster in
2002-03, CMIE said in its monthly (February) review of the Indian economy, released on Monday.
"Out of 43 major export markets for Indian goods, exports to only seven markets, including Bangladesh and Nigeria, were down in April-October 2002," CMIE said.
About the gross domestic product, CMIE said in the light of adverse effect of drought on economic growth, the Central Statistical Organisation's estimate of 4.4 per cent for FY-03 appears 'optimistic' and GDP growth is likely to be closer to 3.7 per cent.
The slowdown in GDP was due to fall in the agriculture sector, it said, adding while CSO has estimated a 3.1 per cent decline, actually the fall would be close to 4.4 per cent.
Similarly, CSO's expectation of 6.1 per cent rise in the manufacturing sector is optimistic. The sector would witness a growth of only 4.9 per cent in the reporting fiscal.
While the Index of Industrial Production growth was not severely affected by the drought in the first half, the poor Rabi crop prospects are likely to keep the growth in demand on the lower side, the CMIE added.
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