India's subsidised wheat exports are expected to be lower by one million tonne from the previous year's 6 million tonnes to 5 million tonnes this year, due to lower crop.

The expectation of the lower export is half the target set by the Indian government to export 10 million tonnes this year.

According to United States Department of Agriculture both US and India are likely to see a drop in export of wheat.

Last year in July 2002, USDA has expressed worry about India flooding the Asian markets with its wheat, as a result of its subsidies. This had been affecting US exports to these markets.

US exports are likely to be affected by about 500,000 tonnes to 25.5 million tones on reasons of 'pace and increased competition' while India's exports will be down by a million tonnes due to 'diminished export prospects.'

India had announced an export target of 10 million tonnes for wheat exports but a bad monsoon put a wrench in all plans for exports.

According to the latest figures released by the USDA, India will fall short by nearly half, of its export target of 10 million tonnes of wheat.

World wheat trade in 2002-03 is forecast at 105.6 million tonnes down 4.3 million tonnes from 2001-02. Global wheat production is expected to be lower by about 12 million tonnes while consumption is up by 11.1 million tonnes from the previous year.

But the figures indicate that global production is down 1.2 million tonnes from last month's forecast due to smaller crops in Argentina, Australia and Brazil and global consumption is down slightly by 2.1 million tonnes with ending stocks up by 2.1 million tonnes from last month.

High procurement prices for wheat has also encouraged farmers to increase the production of wheat.

This year, the stock of crops are estimated to cross the 100 million tonne mark. Last year the supplies were above 95 million tonnes with production of nearly 65 million tonnes.