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India's exports seen flat in 01-02: BankAm

India's merchandise exports are expected to be flat in 2001-02 (April-March) due to a global slowdown, Bank of America said in a research report on Thursday.

This compares to a 20 per cent growth in exports to $44.89 billion in the past year.

The US economy is likely to post negative growth in the fourth quarter of 2001 while recessionary conditions in Japan continue. Growth in Europe is also expected to show a sharp downturn, the report said.

The three regions account for the bulk of India's exports.

The report said that the slowdown in the United States was also expected to have some impact on the information technology sector.

According to the National Association of Software and Service Companies, India's software exports stood at $6.2 billion in 2000-01, of which the United States accounted for 62 per cent. Software exports are not included in merchandise exports.

Due to the flat growth in exports, Bank of America said it was lowering its projection of the balance of payments surplus by more than $1 billion to $4.55 billion for the current year.

In a July report, the bank had forecast a surplus of $5.73 billion, slightly lower than last year's $5.85 billion, based on a projected six per cent growth in exports.

The report said foreign investment is likely to be around $3 billion, unchanged from the previous forecasts.

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