The comparisons show where last year's cutoffs are still a usable guide and where you need to reset your expectations before Round 2.
Most state counselling authorities and the Medical Counselling Committee (MCC) have now published their Round 1 (R1) allotments.
If you are already holding an R1 seat, you are wondering whether to join or float for an upgrade. If you have not yet been allotted, you are asking if Round 2 will bring you a seat.
I have spent the past few days comparing this year's Round 1 closing ranks with last year's, across colleges, categories and counselling authorities.
The comparisons show where last year's cutoffs are still a usable guide and where you need to reset your expectations before Round 2.
Key Points
- NEET-qualified candidates fell by 1.15 lakh, while MBBS seats rose by nearly 10,000.
- AIQ open-seat closing ranks moved deeper this year, making many government seats easier to access.
- SC and ST reserved cutoffs tightened in most states, making last year's ranks less reliable.
- Six states have already reached or crossed last year's Round 3 government-college boundary in Round 1.
- Government-quota seats in private colleges became more accessible across several states.
1. Fewer students qualified, more seats on offer. Did it get easier?
Fewer students qualified for NEET counselling this year: 11.21 lakh, against 12.37 lakh in 2025. The number of students eligible for seats shrank by 1.15 lakh.
On the supply side, more seats are on offer.
The National Medical Commission's seat matrix for 2026-27 has 1,36,939 MBBS seats, 9,911 more than last year. Nearly 80 per cent of the new seats are in private colleges.
The All India Quota (AIQ) alone allotted about 3,500 more MBBS seats in Round 1 than last year.
Most of the extra seats are paid seats at deemed universities but even government seats grew by about 4 per cent.
Among the states whose lists I could compare, Karnataka added the most. In Round 1, it allotted over 25 per cent more government-quota seats than last year, mostly bigger quotas at existing colleges.
So, did getting a seat become easier?
For open seats in the AIQ and in most states, the Round 1 closing rank moved deeper. Open seats are won on merit by candidates of every category.
Take the AIQ. Across its government colleges, the median college filled its last open seat at an all-India rank (AIR) of 10,160 last year and 10,957 this year.
Two colleges close to that median show what the move looks like to a student.
Bundelkhand Medical College in Sagar filled its last open seat at rank 9,704 last year and 10,356 this year.
Jawaharlal Nehru Medical College in Bhagalpur went from 9,419 to 10,357.
A student ranked 10,000 was outside both cutoffs last year and would have qualified for both this year.
The movement varied across states (Uttar Pradesh, for example, which added no government seats this year to its pool, moved the other way).
The competitive pool, however, did not shrink evenly across categories and I tackle that in the next section.
Who qualified, 2025 and 2026
Data source: National Testing Agency, July 2026
A note on methodology: The government-college medians in this column are taken across the government colleges publishing in each year, so they can move both because cutoffs moved at existing colleges and because the colleges included changed.
Of the 70 AIQ government colleges that can be matched by name across both years, the median open closing rank moved from 9,752 to 10,225, about 5 per cent.
Table 4 is restricted to the same private colleges in both years.
A median is the middle college, not the cutoff for getting any seat.
2. If you are looking reserved pools (SC/ST), last year's cutoffs are optimistic in most states
So far, we have looked at open seats.
For SC- and ST-reserved seats, the picture is different.
Of the 17 authorities where a comparison can be made, the SC or the ST cutoff moved to a tighter rank in 16.
In the AIQ, every PwD pool closed tighter. Haryana was the only state where every category eased
Reserved cutoffs moved the other way
(Government colleges, median across colleges, Round 1 against Round 1, AIR unless marked)
What this means
Measured as a share of everyone who sat the exam, the median SC closing rank in the AIQ was within the top 3.2 per cent last year and 3.3 per cent this year.
The ST figures were 4.5 and 4.7 per cent.
Both cutoffs moved slightly deeper relative to the examination cohort, even though their AIR numbers became smaller.
These figures alone do not establish that admission became harder or easier.
For candidates using this year's AIR, however, last year's closing ranks look optimistic in these pools.
If you are an SC or ST candidate planning on last year's numbers, rebuild your list on this year's Round 1 and include a few colleges in your ‘safe’ list alongside your reach and target colleges.
3. Round 1 has already reached last year's Round 3 boundary in six states
A useful test for a student holding an R1 allotment is this: Take the last government college to fill an open seat after Round 1 this year and compare it with the last one to fill after last year's Round 3, the final regular round.
How far Round 1 has already reached
(Open seats, government colleges, AIR unless marked)
What this means for you
In the first six states, this year's Round 1 boundary is already level with, or beyond, last year's Round 3 boundary.
In the four states where it has gone beyond, access has extended to ranks that were outside last year's Round 3 limit.
That, however, does not tell you how much further cutoffs will move in Round 2.
How far a college's cutoff moves in Round 2 depends on how many seats come free, through students who upgrade or exit and seats added to the matrix, and on how many higher-ranked candidates want them.
Look at the vacancies at the colleges you want, which authorities publish before the Round 2 option entry. Look at vacancies in your own quota and category, not just the college-wide total.
The MCC has already published two lists. The clear-vacancy list is seats open now. The virtual-vacancy list is seats allotted in Round 1 to students who have asked for an upgrade. If the upgrade comes through, the seat is vacated.
More vacancies mean more room, but where the cutoffs close also depends on how many higher-ranked candidates want the same seats and how many students holding virtual vacancies get an upgrade.
Most state authorities publish a Round 2 seat matrix or vacancy position. Check yours before you fill choices.
4. Government-quota seats inside private colleges eased sharply
In most states, private colleges set aside a share of their seats as government quota, allotted on merit.
Depending on the state, the fee runs from Rs 16,500 a year in Andhra Pradesh to Rs 25 lakh in Rajasthan. In most states, it is several times what a government college charges.
Because of the fee, these seats generally fill after the government colleges do. Where the fee is high, their closing ranks extend much deeper.
In Uttar Pradesh, where it is Rs 16-18 lakh a year, the last such seat went to rank 7,15,417 in Round 1.
Where the government-quota seat in a private college closed
(Open seats, median across the same colleges both years, Round 1 against Round 1, AIR)
What this means for you
In many states, a government-quota seat in a private college may now be within reach at a rank you had assumed would get you only a management seat. The former is almost always cheaper than the latter.
Round 2 of the AIQ is due within days. Whether these patterns hold, we will know soon enough.
