Home > Assembly Elections 2006 > Citizens' Report
April 13, 2006
No majority for single party
In my opinion and trends predicted for this 2006 Tamilnadu State assembly polls, here are the possible outcomes
AIADMK + allies: (83 - 94)
AIADMK: - 70-75
DMK + allies: (102-115)
Others + Independents: 20-25
G Sathiya Narayanan
Karunanidhi and colour TV
Karunanidhi never says or does anything without any benefit to him and his family. He has promised free supply of Colour TVs to the voters. From where he will get this money. From the public exchequer. Who contributes to the public exchequer. The public, rich or poor, contribute to the exchequer through direct and indirect taxes. Even the poor contribute to the exchequer through excise and sales taxes paid by them on all commodities be it bread, soap, oil or anything for their daily use. So from public exchequer colour TVs will be supplied.
Karunanidhi has correctly stated that this will be a one time expenditure only and the Tamilnadu State Government can afford. Then the recepients will have to pay atleast Rs.72/- (seventy two only) per month for getting cable connection. Let us assume that Karunanidhi will correcty identify one lakh deserving families. So 72 lakhs of rupees additional income permonth to his family run cable and multi system operation is definite.
Since the number of viewrs will increase, TV rating of the programmes telecast by his family run another business will get extra income through enhanced fees for advertisements which will not be less than 25 lakhs per month per channel and his family runs 20 TV channels. So a minumum of 29 Crores of rupees as additional income is assured to his family. Imagine the extent of income his family will get when convergence is introduced.
Thus, Karunanidhi is contemplating on a business in which his investment will be zero but this investment will be by the public through exchequer. Public will not get anything in return but will be paying everymonth from their personal savings. Do you not think Karunanidhi is the best business man surpassing anyone living or dead. Investing nothing but reaping unlimited profits. There is nothing wrong in anyone doing business or working for his own profit. But do you not think it is despicable to cheat the public in the name of service that too selfless service.
Looking at the election manifesto of a major party DMK, it is really shocking. But all along TN politics, has been sprinkled with plenty of doses of freebies(-Free tooth powder, free chappals, Free Dhoties and so on)- This puts the state in a bad light.
This simply means that the people are taken for granted. There is absolutely no sign of any long term planning - be it for State's finances, infrastructure etc. In most of the parts of the state, drinking water is a precious commodity and hence a thriving business. What the Govts have done about that, except raising the tempers of the farmers' about Cauvery every summer ? Reg Power, there is no initiative from the state. Luckily ,for the state because of the private initiative, wind power potential is being exploited.
Which of the parties' manifestos speak about any real development work? Almost all the parties speak about only the welfare schemes for the people. People should understand that one Rs 500 crores every year (estimate by DMK for Free TV distribution ) can bring many such 500 crores aid from World Bank/NABARD for better infrastructure - be it for irrigation/ drinking water/ sewAge system etc.
Public should understand that the freebies are not from the party but from their own state's exchequer. If the state's finances are going to be drained by this way, there will be a slew of taxes to compensate. What the right hand gives, left hand takes back. Otherwise all developmental works are put into backburner and once again loser is the public. Has the public understood this?
Days are not far off when every community/caste/town/ in TN boasts of a party in their name. Really !!!! Certain community has openly declared that they would only vote for the party which would give them reservation for jobs. This will definitely set a bad precedent. Such is the state of affairs in the state - politics is also a business- be it at any level. Simply the public is cinestar stuck.!!!!
At the end of the day, unless there is a drastic change in the minds of public, the election is not going to change anything in the state. We see only politicians but no statesman. Too much of expectations ???????
Jaya gets my vote
Tamil Nadu has always seen anti-incumbency factor and a clear winner in State Assembly elections. People have no options other than DMK and ADMK. This is primarily due to the large number of party workers these outfits possess and the absence of a strong thrid front.
This time, there seems to be a change in the equation with coalition politics creeping into the state. Neither DMK nor ADMK seems to be a clear winner.
If I am asked to select one among the two, I would prefer Ms.Jayalalitha simply for her better capabilities than Mr.Karunanidhi. She has taken some bold decisions and has shown some promise.
Karunanidhi on the other hand tries his best be highly populistic and empty the State treasuries.
The Return of Amma would be the best thing to happen at this time for Tamil Nadu.
What has AIADMK done?
I have been seeing lot of reports from various newpapers, the fact and what is going to happen is what happened in 2004 election. what happened to BJP same will happen to ADMK. (Everybody thought BJP will come to power but it did not.)
One has to think lot of things. Vaiko was one of the respected leader, but now his credibility is big question. He is talking about karunanidhi family, what was he doing till march 3, this is absolute opportunistic.
what ADMK govt has done for the state. Nothing. Investments in the state are coming because of national liberlisation policy and no effort of state govt. People talk about Tsunami relief, govt used relief as pre-election campaign. What effort is taken by the state govt?? Veerapan killing, free bicycle...only these two are done in 5 years time. What is this. Does people have any brain to vote for ADMK.
I personally feel only DMK can do better than any other political party in the state. People talk about family politics, stalin is in the politics for more than 25 years, he has all respect to become next chief minister, he did very well when he was mayor. Now chennai has got more than 10 flovers becasue of him. Has ADMK in last 5 years built atleast 1 flyover atleast in tamilnadu, leave chennai. Shame! DMK has atleast announced 2rs rice and free TV. What does ADMK manifesto tell.. nothing.. what is their plan for tamil nadu. Their objective will be earn min 2000 crores.
Tally will be
DMDK (Vijayakanth): 1
God only should save Tamil Nadu
Where was Karunanidhi?
"Believe me, I will give you Color TV - Former CM MK", This is a contradictory statement, it tells that he has not done his duty earlier and will do henceforth. is he begging for votes? but why, he visited assembly only once. How is going to save democracy. Getting salary/allowance and votes and sitting in home.
Leaders who are not examples should be ignored. People should ignore him as he ignored the assembly, That will be a lesson for every one and democracy will make a huge smile. We need food/shelter not TV/Cable. If people have doubt in Amma's reign, check out her releif measures. That was great. All news papers appreciated it.
She is a leader with eminent qualities. When MK was not able to complete Veeranam project, She was able to do it. Better she's again and no DMK.
The elections in Tamilnadu seem to be heading to a photo finish this time. On the one hand there seems to be high energy levels and momentum in the campaign of the AIADMK and its allies. On the other there is the strong alliance of the DMK which swept the lok sabha polls in 2004. And to add to it is the emergence of actor vijayakanth who if not making an impact in terms of number of seats won, is certain to capture a sizeable vote share.
The hectic campaining has been on for more than a week now. The DMK on its part is trying to woo the voters with free color TV and rice at very cheap rates. The ADMK seems to be adopting the punch line of good governance and is leaving most of the opposition bashing to the MDMK chief Vaiko.
With about 20-25 days left, the heat is on in the state. Of the five states going to polls Tamilnadu may just be the most interesting case. What happens time will tell.
DMK: loose control
I am neither a hardcore political follower nor I am in India at the moment to comment on the election proceedings. But I am basically from Pondicherry, hence would like to highlight this simple fact.
DMK have finally managed to announced their list of candidates for the Pondicherry state, but the fact remains that they are simply not in control of their own coalition parties and are unable to orient themselves to any particular goal if not winning the election. It appears that still PMK is NOT fully satisfied with this.
It brings serious concern over DMKs ability to form & lead a successful and worthy Government for TamilNadu. If they are not able to solve their own internal problems, how will they ever be able to solve a state's problems? I would imagine a immediate split up between their coalition parties after the election and DMK will struggle to form the Govt even if they are to win the election by chance.
I agree with some of other reporters who have said that it is time for some young blood to take the lead in politics. I would recommend Mr Karunanidhi to retire from his political life and enjoy a well deserved (?) rest.
Left to get around 85 seats
With Ezava chief minister factor diminishing the anti development image of Left and uneasiness over DIC(K) tie up with UDF, LDF will be able to win around 85 seats in kerala. UDF had a chance 1 month back but A.K Antony Saddistically and Veerappmoily with his foolishness sabotaged Ummen Chandies well thought strategy of forcing DIC to contest in Hand Symbol. If this was the case congress UDF would have won around 75 seats.
Also congress should have allowed the lost candidates of parliment elections to fight in tough seats. This was rejected by High Command. candidates like V.M Sudheeran and Mullappally Ramachandran would have diminished Ezhava effect of V.S.
Only hope for UDF is, if BJP votebank comes to them straight.
Both sides think they will win
Election in Kerala still seems to be off mood, except in the villages and the malabar regions.
Sonia Gandhi is landing Kerala on 18th and various other political leaders are expected coming days, which will make this 'festival' more colourful.
Before election declaration, there was some slight bending to the LDF (Communist and there alies), but after VS drama now UDF got some advantages.
Leaders of LDF like M A Baby, Thomas Issac, S Sharma etc are concentrating on there corresponding constituencies, as they are expecting some leakage from there vote banks due to GROUP politics.
Due to VS Achthanandan's introduction to candidate list, Pinarayi Vijayan moves backward.
When the campaign reaches to the final stage the picture may again change. Now both UDF and LDF camps are in good mood, and both are expecting majorities.
UDF sources said there expectation is around 75+ seats and they are agreeing that they will not get a clear majority like what happened in 2001 (that time UDF got 100 seats out of 140).
LDF expecation is 90+ seats.
Lets wait and see what is going to happen in coming days.
Dictatorship of the Reds
How can a state stay with one Party for 29 years without any change. Is it democracy or a virtual dictatorship. You can say that the state of West Bengal is perfoming the best in India. It may come as the last 7 states If you considered progress as a measure .
Then what is allowing the citizens of west bengal to not revolt against this dictatorship. The reason could be plenty. First of all in a dictatorship revolution can be crushed. Secondly a communist regime can make people so lazy that they could barely think of a revolution. Also the continous brain washing of educated and non educated people makes the revolution a non starter . The Bureaucracy , unions & the students and polluted in their mind which will avoid any change as this affect their personal goals.
Gone are the times when west bengal used to lead the struggle of freedom. Most of the bengal communities comments are pro communist which suggest how deep the brain washing has been done.
West Bengal needs a revolution and new thinking needs to come within from the people of the state. Thats we will have a real democracy where people can always choose a change whenever they wish to.
CPI M may have done well (as an argument) but important aspect is the change .
Time for change
Let me discuss some thing about the real picture of bengal. Some of the reports are quite reflecting the actual scenario of bengal. If one goes to village and ask about the party office, the villager show the CPIM party office because in the past 29 years this offices are made in numerous number. the party members becomes the rular of the villages.
If you protest against any of their decions then people will be either killed,or womens be raped, or the house be ablazed etc. After all they have numerous number of weapons. If any one goes to police station then police say them to go to party office. So it is very real that villagers know very much where is the party office.
CPI(M) now a days means cadre producing industry. If you go to Bengal people gets angry if you call them CPIM as nowa days CPIM is used as a slang word.
Although it is seemed that CPIM will get majority in this election but actual fact is different. If one can recall the Bihar Poll, all the exit poll expressed the majority in favour of RJD alliance but in the result how people threw them everybody know now. so this is the time for change and teach a lession to the communists in bengal who are liars, double standards and resposible for the destruction of the society.
After all communism is a false theory which is proved already in the world. Communists are like octopas once they are in power then to uproot them a society need a major revolution. For instance see the Russia, which is splitted into pices because of wrong concept communism. communists are dangerous that and time to throw them from bengal. All people should come forward to get rid of this insect of society of bengal. Those days are very near.