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NDA may fall short of simple majority: Exit polls

May 05, 2004 21:28 IST
Last Updated: May 06, 2004 03:15 IST

The ruling National Democratic Alliance led by the Bharatiya Janata Party could end up just short of a simple majority in the 543 member Lok Sabha, according to exit polls at the end of the third phase of polling on Wednesday.

The NDTV poll gave the NDA 245-265 seats with the Congress and Allies pegged at 185-205 and Others bagging 90-110.

Aaj Tak and Sahara TV channels on the basis of Wednesday's polling gave 268 and 263 seats, respectively, to the NDA, while STAR News gave it a chance of getting a simple majority with 270-282 seats.

The poll on the STAR News channel conducted by C-Voter projected 167-179 for the Congress and Allies and 87-99 for the Others.

Aaj Tak, which interviewed 52,000 voters in 19,000 booths, gave the Congress and Allies 175 and the Others 100 seats. The Sahara-DRS poll gave the Congress and Allies 181 and the Others 88.

Early seat projections by Zee-Taleem predicted 267 seats for the NDA, 187 for the Congress and Allies, and 89 for the Others.

AC Nielsen interviewed 34,449 voters for the NDTV-Indian Express opinion poll, supported by Amar Ujala and Gulf News, which predicted that the NDA would win 55 out of the 83 seats that went to the polls on Wednesday, improving its 1999 tally by 14 seats.

The exit poll gave 15 seats to the Congress and Allies, reducing their tally by five seats, while predicting a win for Others in 13 constituencies, losing nine seats, in the penultimate phase.

NDTV said the NDA would win 20 seats (a gain of four) out of 25 in Rajasthan, 11 out of 12 that went to the polls in Madhya Pradesh (gain of two), eight in Bihar (same as earlier), 14 in Uttar Pradesh (gain of six), and two in other states (gain of two).

The projections for the Congress and Allies in Rajasthan stood at five (loss of four), Madhya Pradesh 1 (loss of two), Bihar 4 (gain of one), Uttar Pradesh 3 (gain of one), and two in other states, a loss of one seat.

Others (apparently the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party) were projected to win 13 seats in UP — a decline from the earlier 20.

The overall tally projected by the channel for the ruling alliance was pegged at 18 in Bihar (loss of 12), 26 in Madhya Pradesh (gain of five), 21 in Rajasthan (gain of four), and 31 in Uttar Pradesh (gain of four).

For the Congress-led alliance, it predicted 22 in Bihar (gain of 13), five in Rajasthan (loss of four), three in Madhya Pradesh (loss of five), and 10 in Uttar Pradesh (loss of one).

The exit poll predicted the Samajwadi Party winning 22 seats (loss of four) and the BSP winning 16 in Uttar Pradesh, increasing its previous tally by two seats.

STAR News gave the NDA 53-59 seats, Congress and Allies 12-16, and Others 12-16. The Sahara poll projected 47 seats for the NDA, 16 for the Congress and allies, and 20 for Others.

The Zee-Taleem exit poll, which covered the Hindi belt states and interviewed up to 40,000 voters, gave the NDA 44 seats, Congress and Allies 14, and 20 to Others.

In Madhya Pradesh, where elections were held for 12 of a total 29 seats, the Zee survey predicted nine seats for the BJP and three to the Congress while the Sahara and STAR News polls both gave the saffron party 10 and the Congress two.

In Bihar, where polling has been completed in all 40 seats, the BJP-Janata Dal, United, combine appears set to get 24 seats while the Congress-Rashtriya Janata Dal group is expected to get 16, Sahara's survey said. This means a loss of six seats for the NDA as compared to 1999.

The Zee survey projected 24 seats for the NDA, giving 11 to the Laloo Prasad Yadav-led combine and five to Others, while STAR News gave 24 to NDA, 14 to the Congress-RJD, and two to others. Aaj Tak predicted 27 seats for the NDA, 12 for the Congress-RJD, and just one to Others.

In Uttar Pradesh, where elections have been held for 62 out of 80 seats so far, Zee predicted that the BJP would win 22, the Congress eight, Samajwadi Party 17, BSP 13, and Others one. Sahara gave the BJP 20, Congress eight, and Others, including the Samajwadi Party and the BSP, 34.

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Aaj Tak gave 22 seats to the BJP, six to the Congress, 21 to the Samajwadi Party, and 12 to the BSP, while STAR News predicted 26 for the BJP, 10 for the Congress, 15 for the Samajwadi Party, 10 for the BSP, and one for Others.

A Zee exit poll in Lucknow, Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee's constituency, said the BJP had polled 55 per cent of the votes cast, Congress-backed Ram Jethmalani 12, the Samajwadi Party 18, and Others just 2 per cent.

In Rajasthan, where polling was held for all 25 seats on Wednesday, Zee predicted a status quo with the BJP and the Congress getting 16 and nine seats, respectively. This is the same tally as the one in the outgoing Lok Sabha.

The Sahara-DRS poll, however, predicted that the BJP would consolidate its position and get 20 seats while the Congress would win just five. Aaj Tak, STAR News and NDTV made the same projection for Rajasthan.

Compiling the exit polls at the end of three rounds, the surveys said the NDA had gained some lost ground. For the 361 seats where elections have been held so far, Zee gave the NDA 180 seats, the Congress and Allies 114, and Others 66.

Sahara gave the BJP-led combine 200 seats, Congress and Allies 117, and Others 44. Aaj Tak gave the NDA 195, Congress and Allies, 115, and Others 51.

Polling in the final phase on May 10 will cover the remaining 182 constituencies in 16 states and Union Territories.

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