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Vaghela's confidence worries BJP leaders

December 15, 2002 04:31 IST
It's gossip time in Gujarat.

Confusion has engulfed the minds of the people and politicians.

The talk usually goes like this:

Ask a Bharatiya Janata Party politician how many seats they expect to win? He will say, "120. The publication of the fatwa did the miracle. Hindus thought that if 10% Muslims can vote 100% and push us into a corner, why should we not vote in full strength?"

But tell him, "Our information from Congress leaders, government officers, and a few police officers suggests that Congress stands a good chance", and his confidence will evaporate.

"Achchaa? [Really?] Are you serious? Then, do you mean to say that people [Hindus] who went to vote after reading the advertisement asking Muslims to vote only for the Congress also voted for the Mussalman party? Then it's a surprise."

Ask a Congressman the same question and he will give you his oft-repeated answer. "Look, Muslims have done wonders; 80% voting in their areas is unprecedented. Add to it the Christians and other minorities. Let Modi count only our Muslim votes, but he does not know we have got unprecedented Kshatriyas votes and the support of non-Gujarati and Hindi-speaking voters of Gujarat. They are more than 50 lakh."

Ask him again, "Are you sure?" He will say, "We have been successful in creating a hype that Congress is the party of the poor and is going to win. Our image amongst the poor will do the magic."

Shankersinh Vaghela puts on a show of confidence, but according to a source in the Congress, former chief ministers Madhavsinh Solanki and Amarsinh Chaudhari and party treasurer Ahmed Patel are doubtful about winning the war after getting reports from the local levels.

Two days after the polling, their camps are underconfident, tired and silent.

Narendra Modi, on the other hand, has been overactive. Around Saturday noon, the caretaker chief minister had an informal meeting with his confidants at his residence. He took stock of the post-poll analysis.

On Friday also, he had called a Cabinet meeting to know from his ministers the party's position in the districts.

One of his confidants said, "We are expecting minimum 110 seats. BJP ministers gave Modi some revealing feedback. Four Congress senior leaders like Narhari Amin, Siddharth Patel, Amarsinh Chaudhari, and Naresh Rawal are trailing and likely to lose. BJP's grassroots workers in these constituencies are ready to take a bet."

But ask the BJP hawk, "How are the chances of your leaders?" He will say, "Why don't you wait for a day? Anyway, Rakhiyal, Kalupur, Shahpur in Ahmedabad, Kadi, Sidhpur and Chanasama in North Gujarat and a few other seats are considered weak. But we pray to god that Modi's charisma will do the needful."

In the last two days, both party leaders wanted to know the mood in the opposite camp.

BJP leaders are worried that Vaghela may already be working on a plan of "winning" over the support of independents who are likely to win or have a remote chance of winning.

"The stakes are so high and tension is so unbearable that every seat is worth more than Rs 5 crore," said Mahesh Vakil, an industrialist who supports the Congress. "BJP leaders are giving a list of 120 seats on which their candidates are winning, but the question follows, Why do you think Bapu [Vaghela] looks so confident of forming the government? Any idea where his confidence stems from?"

The question stumps you. So, like him, you wait anxiously for the results.

Sheela Bhatt in Ahmedabad